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Q.An urn contains 5 red and 2 black balls. Two balls are randomly drawn. Let X represent the number of black balls. What are the possible values of X? Is X a random variable? OR Bag I contains 3 red and 4 black balls and Bag II contains 5 red and 6 black balls. One ball is drawn at random from one of the bags and is found to be red. Find the probability that it was drawn from Bag II.

Jammu Kashmir JkboseJKBOSE Class 12 Annual Regular Examination 2018Subjective· 6mImportance★★★★★
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XX (number of black balls drawn) takes the values 0,1,20,1,2 and is a random variable; the OR alternative is a Bayes'-theorem problem giving P(Bag II∣red)=3568P(\text{Bag II}\mid\text{red})=\dfrac{35}{68}.

Part 1 — Urn with 5 red and 2 black balls, two balls drawn; XX = number of black balls

Since only 22 black balls exist and 22 balls are drawn, the number of black balls among them can be 00 (both red), 11 (one red, one black), or 22 (both black).

So the possible values of XX are {0,1,2}\{0,1,2\}.

XX is a random variable, because it is a real-valued function defined on every outcome of the sample space of this random experiment (it assigns a unique numerical value to each possible pair of balls drawn).

(For completeness, with (72)=21\binom{7}{2}=21 equally likely pairs: P(X=0)=(52)/21=1021P(X{=}0)=\binom{5}{2}/21=\dfrac{10}{21}, P(X=1)=5⋅221=1021P(X{=}1)=\dfrac{5\cdot2}{21}=\dfrac{10}{21}, P(X=2)=(22)/21=121P(X{=}2)=\binom{2}{2}/21=\dfrac{1}{21}, summing to 11.)

OR — Part 2: Bag I (3R,4B), Bag II (5R,6B); one ball drawn from a randomly chosen bag is red; find P(Bag II∣red)P(\text{Bag II}\mid\text{red})

Let E1E_1=bag I chosen, E2E_2=bag II chosen, AA=ball drawn is red. P(E1)=P(E2)=12P(E_1)=P(E_2)=\dfrac12.

P(A∣E1)=37P(A\mid E_1)=\dfrac37, P(A∣E2)=511P(A\mid E_2)=\dfrac{5}{11}.

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