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Q.A man is known to speak truth 33 out of 44 times. He rolls a die and reports that the number coming on the die it is a six (66). Find the probability that the number is actually six (66).

Jharkhand JacJAC Intermediate Board 2026Subjective· 5mImportance★★★★★
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This is a Bayes'-theorem problem: combine the prior probability of rolling a six with the man's truth-telling reliability.

Let E1E_1 = event the die actually shows six, E2E_2 = event it does not show six.

P(E1)=16P(E_1)=\dfrac{1}{6}, P(E2)=56P(E_2)=\dfrac{5}{6}

Let AA = event the man reports a six.

Since he speaks the truth 34\dfrac34 of the time: P(A∣E1)=34P(A\mid E_1)=\dfrac{3}{4} (truthfully reports six when it is six), and P(A∣E2)=14P(A\mid E_2)=\dfrac{1}{4} (falsely reports six when it is not).

By Bayes' theorem:

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