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Q.An insurance company insured 2000 scooter drivers, 4000 car drivers and 6000 truck drivers. The probabilities of accidents are 0.01, 0.03 and 0.15 respectively. One of the insured persons meets with an accident. What is the probability that he is a scooter driver?

Uttarakhand UbseUttarakhand Board Intermediate (Class 12) 2026Subjective· 5mImportance★★★★★
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P(scooter∣accident)=152P(\text{scooter}\mid\text{accident})=\dfrac{1}{52} (by Bayes' theorem).

Concept. Bayes' theorem: P(Ei∣A)=P(Ei)P(A∣Ei)∑jP(Ej)P(A∣Ej)P(E_i\mid A)=\dfrac{P(E_i)P(A\mid E_i)}{\sum_j P(E_j)P(A\mid E_j)}.

Set up. Total drivers =2000+4000+6000=12000=2000+4000+6000=12000.

  • P(S)=200012000=16,P(C)=400012000=13,P(T)=600012000=12P(S)=\dfrac{2000}{12000}=\dfrac16,\quad P(C)=\dfrac{4000}{12000}=\dfrac13,\quad P(T)=\dfrac{6000}{12000}=\dfrac12.
  • P(A∣S)=0.01, P(A∣C)=0.03, P(A∣T)=0.15P(A\mid S)=0.01,\ P(A\mid C)=0.03,\ P(A\mid T)=0.15.

Weighted terms (over a common denominator 600600).

  • P(S)P(A∣S)=16⋅1100=1600P(S)P(A\mid S)=\dfrac16\cdot\dfrac{1}{100}=\dfrac{1}{600}.
  • P(C)P(A∣C)=13⋅3100=6600P(C)P(A\mid C)=\dfrac13\cdot\dfrac{3}{100}=\dfrac{6}{600}.
  • P(T)P(A∣T)=12⋅15100=45600P(T)P(A\mid T)=\dfrac12\cdot\dfrac{15}{100}=\dfrac{45}{600}.
  • Total =1+6+45600=52600=\dfrac{1+6+45}{600}=\dfrac{52}{600}.

Apply Bayes: P(S∣A)=1/60052/600=152P(S\mid A)=\dfrac{1/600}{52/600}=\dfrac{1}{52}.

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