Q.(a) A die with numbers 1 to 6 is biased such that P(2)=103 and the probability of other numbers is equal. Find the mean of the number of times the number 2 appears on the die, if the die is thrown twice.
🔒You're viewing a preview — the full solution, concept, methods & PYQ mapping are locked.
🔒 Start your 14-day free trial to unlock the full solution →Part (a)Concept understanding — Binomial Distribution
Binomial Distribution: From Intuition to Precision
Imagine you flip a fair coin 10 times. You want to know the probability of getting exactly 6 heads. This is the kind of question the binomial distribution answers — it models the number of "successes" in a fixed number of independent trials, where each trial has only two outcomes.
The Intuition
Think of a single trial. You roll a die and call "getting a 4" a success. That's one trial. Now roll the die 5 times. The number of times you get a 4 could be 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5. Each roll is independent — the result of one roll doesn't affect the next. The probability of success (getting a 4) stays the same every time: p=61.
The binomial distribution tells you exactly how likely each possible count of successes is, given:
- a fixed number of trials n,
- a constant success probability p per trial,
- independent trials.
The Key Conditions
For a situation to be modelled by a binomial distribution, all four must hold:
- Fixed number of trials (n). You decide in advance how many times you'll repeat the experiment.
- Two outcomes per trial — "success" and "failure". These are just labels; success is whatever outcome you're counting.
- Constant probability of success (p) on every trial.
- Independent trials. The outcome of one trial does not influence another.
A common mistake is to apply the binomial distribution when trials are not independent — for example, drawing cards without replacement from a deck. That's a hypergeometric situation, not binomial.
The Precise Statement
Let X be the number of successes in n independent trials, each with success probability p. Then X follows a binomial distribution with parameters n and p, written:
X∼Binomial(n,p)
The probability of getting exactly k successes (where k=0,1,2,…,n) is:
P(X=k)=(kn)pk(1−p)n−k
P(X=k)=(kn)pk(1−p)n−k
Breaking Down the Formula
Three pieces multiply together:
- pk — the probability that the k successes happen. Since each success has probability p, and there are k of them, this factor is p multiplied by itself k times.
- (1−p)n−k — the probability that the remaining n−k trials are failures. Each failure has probability 1−p.
- (kn) — the number of ways to choose which k of the n trials are the successes. The successes could be the first k trials, or the last k, or any arrangement. This binomial coefficient counts all possible arrangements.
The binomial coefficient (kn) is read as "n choose k" and equals k!(n−k)!n!. For example, (25)=2!3!5!=10.
A Worked Example
Problem: A multiple-choice test has 10 questions, each with 4 options. You guess every answer. What is the probability you get exactly 3 correct?
Solution:
- n=10 (10 trials)
- p=41 (probability of guessing correctly on one question)
- k=3 (we want exactly 3 successes)
P(X=3)=(310)(41)3(43)7
Compute (310)=120, so:
P(X=3)=120×641×(43)7
(43)7=163842187, so:
P(X=3)=120×641×163842187=64×16384120×2187
Simplify: 120/64=15/8, so:
P(X=3)=8×1638415×2187=13107232805≈0.2503
So there's about a 25% chance of getting exactly 3 correct by pure guessing.
Mean and Variance
For a binomial distribution, two important summary measures are: …
Part (b)Concept understanding — Event Independence
Event Independence
Two events are independent when the occurrence of one does not change the probability of the other. Toss a coin and roll a die: the coin landing heads tells you nothing about whether the die shows a six. Contrast this with drawing cards without replacement, where the first draw does change the odds for the second — those events are dependent.
From Conditional Probability to a Clean Test
"Knowing B doesn't change A" means P(A∣B)=P(A). Substituting the definition P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B) and clearing the fraction gives the symmetric form used in practice:
P(A∩B)=P(A)P(B).
Events A and B are independent exactly when the probability of both occurring equals the product of their individual probabilities. This version is preferred because it needs no non-zero condition and treats A and B alike.
A Quick Check
Roll a fair die. Let A={2,4,6} (even) and B={4,5,6} (greater than 3). Then P(A)=P(B)=21, and A∩B={4,6} so P(A∩B)=31. Since 31=21⋅21=41, these events are not independent.
Three or More Events
Events A,B,C are mutually independent only if all four conditions hold: the three pairwise products and
P(A∩B∩C)=P(A)P(B)P(C).
Pairwise independence alone is not enough to guarantee mutual independence. …
Part (a)
The number of 2's in two independent throws is X∼Binomial(n=2, p=P(2)=103). (The other five faces share the remaining 107, but only p matters for the mean.) …
Part (a): the count of 2's in two throws is Binomial(2,103), mean =53. Part (b): P(A)P(B)=545=121=P(A∩B) and A∩B=∅, so A,B are neither independent nor mutually exclusive.
Part (a): mean number of 2's in two throws
We are told P(2)=103; the other five faces 1,3,4,5,6 are equally likely. If each has probability p, then 5p+103=1⇒p=507 — though for the mean we only need P(2).
Let X be the number of times 2 appears in two independent throws. Each throw is a Bernoulli trial with "success" = getting a 2, probability 103. Hence X∼Binomial(n=2, p=103).
For X∼Binomial(n,p), the mean is E(X)=np. …
Method: Mean of a count via np, and testing independence vs mutual exclusivity
Two techniques: getting a mean count without the full distribution, and classifying two events by the two defining equations.
Steps
Step 1 (mean): recognise a binomial count.
If you count how often a fixed-probability outcome occurs in n independent trials, the count is B(n,p) and its mean is E(X)=np — you need only p and n, not the whole distribution.
Step 2 (classification): compute three numbers.
From the sample space find P(A), P(B), and P(A∩B).
Step 3: Apply both tests independently.
- Mutually exclusive ⟺P(A∩B)=0. …
Common Mistakes
Mistake 1 (part a): Building the whole distribution when only the mean is asked.
Why it's wrong: the count of 2's in two throws is B(2,103), so E(X)=np=53 directly; you only need P(2), not the other faces' probabilities. Correct approach: use E(X)=np.
Mistake 2 (part b): Concluding "not mutually exclusive" therefore "independent" (or vice versa). …
Showing the 12 most recent of 73 on this concept.
- AP EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-12-FN1 markMCQQ.In a binomial distribution (q+p)n, if q−p=41 and the product of its mean and the variance is 845, then P(X=2)= (A) 88(126)56 (B) 88(252)56 (C) 56(63)35 (D) 56(72)35
›Reveal solutionSolution
Use q−p and p+q=1 to find p,q, then the given mean×variance product to find n, and finally compute P(X=2) from the binomial formula.
Concept and Intuition
For a binomial distribution with parameters n,p (and q=1−p): mean =np and variance =npq. Their product n2p2q is a clean single expression in n once p,q are known numerically, letting us solve for n without needing to separately isolate mean and variance.
Step-by-Step Solution
- From p+q=1 and q−p=41: adding, 2q=45⇒q=85; then p=1−85=83.
- Mean =np, Variance =npq. Their product: (np)(npq)=n2p2q.
- p2q=(83)2⋅85=649⋅85=51245.
- Given n2p2q=845: n2=45/51245/8=8512=64⇒n=8.
- P(X=2)=(28)p2q6=28(83)2(85)6.
- (83)2=649, (85)6=8656. …
- AP EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-13-FN1 markMCQQ.If X∼B(n,p) is a binomial variate, 8p2+15p−2=0 and the product of the mean and variance of X is 87, then P(X=4)= (A) 6C46652 (B) 7C45743 (C) 5C4453 (D) 8C48874
›Reveal solutionSolution
Solve the quadratic for p, use (mean)(variance)=n2p2q to find n, then apply the binomial pmf. Answer: 8C48874.
Concept and Intuition
For X∼B(n,p): mean =np, variance =npq where q=1−p. Their product is n2p2q, a single equation in n once p is known from the quadratic.
Step-by-Step Solution
- Solve 8p2+15p−2=0: p=16−15±225+64=16−15±17. The valid probability root is p=162=81 (the other root is negative).
- So q=1−p=87.
- Mean × Variance =(np)(npq)=n2p2q=n2⋅641⋅87=5127n2.
- Set equal to 87: 5127n2=87⇒n2=8512=64⇒n=8. …
- AP EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-14-FN1 markMCQQ.Let E1,E2 and E3 be mutually independent events Statement I: E1 and E2∪E3 are independent Statement II: E1 and E2∩E3 are independent Which one of the following options is correct? (A) Both I and II are true (B) Only I is true (C) Only II is true (D) Both I and II are false
›Reveal solutionSolution
Mutual independence of E1,E2,E3 guarantees E1 is independent of every Boolean combination of E2,E3 (unions, intersections, complements). Both statements are true — option (A).
Concept and Intuition
Mutual independence of three events means every subset of them satisfies the product rule: P(Ei∩Ej)=P(Ei)P(Ej) for all pairs, and P(E1∩E2∩E3)=P(E1)P(E2)P(E3). A standard consequence is that any event generated from E2 and E3 alone (via ∪,∩,c) remains independent of E1, because independence of E1 from E2 and from E3 combines nicely through inclusion-exclusion and De Morgan's laws.
Step-by-Step Solution
- Statement I: Check P(E1∩(E2∪E3))=P(E1)P(E2∪E3).
P(E1∩(E2∪E3))=P((E1∩E2)∪(E1∩E3))=P(E1∩E2)+P(E1∩E3)−P(E1∩E2∩E3)
=P(E1)P(E2)+P(E1)P(E3)−P(E1)P(E2)P(E3)(using mutual independence)
=P(E1)[P(E2)+P(E3)−P(E2)P(E3)]=P(E1)P(E2∪E3).
So Statement I is true.
2. Statement II: Check P(E1∩(E2∩E3))=P(E1)P(E2∩E3).
P(E1∩E2∩E3)=P(E1)P(E2)P(E3)(mutual independence, directly) …
- AP EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-14-FN1 markMCQQ.A pair of dice is thrown independently 3 times. The probability of getting a total score of at least 9 twice, is (A) 5832925 (B) 5832975 (C) 58321025 (D) 58321075
›Reveal solutionSolution
First find the single-throw probability of a total ≥9 with a pair of dice, then apply the binomial probability formula for exactly 2 successes in 3 independent trials. The answer is (B).
Concept and Intuition
Each throw of a pair of dice is an independent trial with a fixed "success" probability p=P(sum≥9). Asking for the probability of exactly 2 successes in 3 independent trials is a textbook binomial distribution question:
P(X=k)=(kn)pk(1−p)n−k.
Step-by-Step Solution
- Count outcomes of two dice giving sum ≥9 (out of 36 total equally likely outcomes):
- sum =9: (3,6),(4,5),(5,4),(6,3) → 4 ways
- sum =10: (4,6),(5,5),(6,4) → 3 ways
- sum =11: (5,6),(6,5) → 2 ways
- sum =12: (6,6) → 1 way
- Total favorable =4+3+2+1=10.
- Single-throw probability: p=3610=185, and q=1−p=1813.
- We want exactly 2 successes in n=3 independent throws: P(X=2)=(23)p2q1=3⋅(185)2⋅1813. …
- Count outcomes of two dice giving sum ≥9 (out of 36 total equally likely outcomes):
- AP EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-14-AN1 markMCQQ.If A,B,C are independent events of a random experiment such that P(A)=3/4, P(B)=5/6 and P(C)=2/3, then the probability that exactly one of the events occur is (A) 41 (B) 365 (C) 125 (D) 7271
›Reveal solutionSolution
Sum the three mutually exclusive ways exactly one of three independent events can occur. Answer: 365.
Concept and Intuition
For independent events, "exactly one occurs" means one event happens and the other two fail, and there are three such disjoint scenarios (which one occurs). Because the events are independent, each scenario's probability is simply the product of the individual (or complementary) probabilities, and we add the three scenarios since they can't happen simultaneously.
Step-by-Step Solution
- Complements: P(A′)=1−43=41, P(B′)=1−65=61, P(C′)=1−32=31.
- Scenario "only A": P(A)P(B′)P(C′)=43⋅61⋅31=723.
- Scenario "only B": P(A′)P(B)P(C′)=41⋅65⋅31=725. …
- AP EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-13-AN1 markMCQQ.A, B, C are three independent events of a random experiment such that P(C)=2/3. If probabilities of occurrence of only A, only B and only C are respectively 604,603 and 602, then the ratio of the probability of the occurrence of A to the occurrence of B is (A) 16:15 (B) 4:3 (C) 12:25 (D) 2:3
›Reveal solutionSolution
This tests setting up "only-one-event" probabilities for independent events as products with complements, then solving the resulting system for P(A) and P(B).
Concept and Intuition
For independent events, "only A occurs" means A happens and both B,C fail: P(A)(1−P(B))(1−P(C)). Writing this out for all three "only" events gives three equations in the two unknowns p=P(A) and q=P(B) (since P(C) is already known) — enough to solve completely, with the third equation serving as a consistency check.
Step-by-Step Solution
- Let p=P(A), q=P(B), and P(C)=32 so 1−P(C)=31.
- Only A: p(1−q)⋅31=604=151⇒p(1−q)=51.
- Only B: (1−p)q⋅31=603=201⇒(1−p)q=203.
- Only C: (1−p)(1−q)⋅32=602=301⇒(1−p)(1−q)=201.
- From steps 2 and 3: p−pq=51 and q−pq=203; subtracting, p−q=51−203=201, so p=q+201.
- Expand step 4: 1−p−q+pq=201. Using pq=p−51 from step 2: 1−p−q+p−51=201⇒54−q=201⇒q=54−201=2015=43. …
- AP EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-15-AN1 markMCQQ.If X∼B(n,41), P(X=2)=P(X=3) and ∑K=02P(X=K)=41139M, then M= (A) 97 (B) 38 (C) 128 (D) 152
›Reveal solutionSolution
This tests binomial-term ratios to pin down n, then a direct sum of the first three binomial terms expressed as a common power of 3/4. Answer: M=97.
Concept and Intuition
For X∼B(n,p), consecutive term ratios satisfy P(X=k)P(X=k+1)=k+1n−k⋅1−pp. Setting the given equal terms lets us solve for n directly. Once n is fixed, each of P(X=0),P(X=1),P(X=2) can be written as a multiple of the same power (3/4)9, so their sum collapses into one clean coefficient times that common factor — matching the given closed form.
Step-by-Step Solution
- P(X=2)=P(X=3) with p=1/4: 3n−2⋅3/41/4=1⇒9n−2=1⇒n=11.
- With n=11: P(X=0)=(3/4)11, P(X=1)=11⋅41⋅(3/4)10, P(X=2)=(211)⋅161⋅(3/4)9.
- Factor out (3/4)9: (3/4)11=(3/4)9⋅169; (3/4)10=(3/4)9⋅43, so P(X=1)=(3/4)9⋅11⋅41⋅43=(3/4)9⋅1633; and P(X=2)=(3/4)9⋅55⋅161=(3/4)9⋅1655. …
- AP EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-15-FN1 markMCQQ.A hunter is firing at a target. He has only 10% chance of firing (hitting) it in one round. The number of rounds he must fire in order to have at least 50% chance of hitting the target at least once, is (A) 8 (B) 7 (C) 6 (D) 5
›Reveal solutionSolution
Use the complement (probability of missing every round) to find the smallest n with (0.9)n≤0.5.
Concept and Intuition
"At least one hit" is most easily handled via its complement, "no hits at all" — the rounds are independent, so the probability of missing all n rounds is (0.9)n, and we want this to drop to at most 0.5.
Step-by-Step Solution
- P(hit in one round)=0.1⇒P(miss)=0.9.
- P(at least one hit in n rounds)=1−(0.9)n.
- Require 1−(0.9)n≥0.5⇒(0.9)n≤0.5.
- Compute powers: 0.95=0.59049, 0.96=0.531441, 0.97=0.4782969. …
- AP EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-15-FN1 markMCQQ.In a binomial distribution consisting of 5 independent trials, the probabilities of 1 success and 2 successes are 0.4096 and 0.2048 respectively. Then the variance of this distribution is (A) 0.80 (B) 0.75 (C) 0.64 (D) 0.72
›Reveal solutionSolution
Using the ratio of two consecutive binomial probabilities eliminates the binomial constant and gives p/q directly; the variance is then npq=0.80.
Concept and Intuition
In a Binomial(n,p) distribution, P(X=k)=(kn)pkqn−k where q=1−p. Taking the ratio of consecutive terms P(k+1)/P(k) cancels most of the structure and leaves a simple expression in p,q — a standard trick to pin down p without solving messy equations for each probability separately.
Step-by-Step Solution
- Here n=5. P(X=1)=(15)pq4=5pq4=0.4096 and P(X=2)=(25)p2q3=10p2q3=0.2048.
- Form the ratio: P(X=1)P(X=2)=5pq410p2q3=q2p.
- Numerically, 0.40960.2048=0.5, so q2p=0.5⇒qp=0.25.
- Since p+q=1, write p=0.25q: 0.25q+q=1⇒1.25q=1⇒q=0.8, p=0.2. …
- AP EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-18-AN1 markMCQQ.A dice is thrown twice. If getting a number greater than four is considered a success, the variance of the probability distribution of the number of successes is (A) 92 (B) 32 (C) 43 (D) 94
›Reveal solutionSolution
The number of successes in two independent dice throws (success = number >4) follows Binomial(2,31), whose variance is npq=94.
Concept and Intuition
Each throw is an independent Bernoulli trial with success probability p=P(die>4)=P(5 or 6)=62=31. The count of successes over n=2 independent trials is Binomial(n,p), and the variance of a binomial variable has the closed form npq.
Step-by-Step Solution
- p=P(success)=62=31 (numbers 5, 6 are >4), so q=1−p=32.
- Number of successes X∼Binomial(n=2,p=31). …
- AP EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-18-AN1 markMCQQ.If the mean and variance of a random variable X having binomial distribution are 4 and 2 respectively, then P(X=2)= (A) 647 (B) 6415 (C) 6421 (D) 6439
›Reveal solutionSolution
From mean =np=4 and variance =npq=2, we recover p=21, n=8, and then compute P(X=2)=647 directly from the binomial pmf.
Concept and Intuition
A binomial distribution is fully determined by its parameters n and p. Given the mean and variance, we can solve for q=Var/Mean (since npnpq=q), then back out p and n, after which any individual probability can be computed from the pmf formula.
Step-by-Step Solution
- Mean: np=4. Variance: npq=2.
- Divide: q=npnpq=42=21, so p=1−q=21.
- From np=4: n=p4=1/24=8. …
- CA Foundation 2026Set jan-20261 markMCQQ.A quality control inspector finds that 20% of light bulbs are defective. If a batch of 5 light bulbs is tested, what is the probability that exactly 1 bulb is defective? (A) 0.4096 (B) 0.8026 (C) 0.2746 (D) 0.1296
›Reveal solutionSolution
P(X=1)=(15)(0.2)1(0.8)4=0.4096.
Step 1 — Set up the binomial model
Each bulb is defective with probability p=0.2 independently; n=5 trials.
Step 2 — Apply the binomial formula for X=1
P(X=1)=(15)p1(1−p)4=5×0.2×(0.8)4.
Step 3 — Compute
(0.8)4=0.4096,P=5×0.2×0.4096=1×0.4096=0.4096. …
🎓Unlock everything free for 14 days
- ✓Full step-by-step solutions
- ✓Concept-first explanations
- ✓Methods, shortcuts & mistakes
- ✓PYQ mapping + timed mock tests
Full access for 14 days. No credit card required.