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Exercises · Q8

Q.Would the central bank need to intervene in a managed floating system? Explain why.

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Yes, the central bank needs to intervene in a managed floating system to moderate exchange rate fluctuations and achieve specific macroeconomic objectives, even though the market primarily determines the rate.

A managed floating exchange rate system is a hybrid approach that combines elements of both fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes. In this system, the exchange rate is primarily determined by market forces of demand and supply for foreign currency, allowing it to float. However, the central bank retains the authority and willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market to influence the exchange rate when it deems necessary. This "management" aspect distinguishes it from a purely free-floating system where the central bank would not intervene at all.

The central bank's intervention in a managed floating system is crucial for several reasons, primarily to prevent excessive volatility and to align the exchange rate with broader macroeconomic goals.

  1. Preventing Excessive Volatility: While market-determined rates offer flexibility, they can sometimes experience sharp and unpredictable fluctuations due to speculative activities, sudden capital flows, or external shocks. Such volatility creates significant uncertainty for businesses engaged in international trade and investment. Exporters and importers face unpredictable costs and revenues, making long-term planning difficult. Investors are hesitant to commit capital if the value of their returns can swing wildly due to exchange rate movements. The central bank intervenes to smooth out these sharp movements, providing a degree of stability that fosters confidence and supports economic activity.

  2. Countering Speculative Attacks: In periods of economic uncertainty, speculators might anticipate a depreciation or appreciation of the domestic currency and engage in large-scale buying or selling of foreign currency. This can create a self-fulfilling prophecy, pushing the exchange rate far from its fundamental value. The central bank intervenes by buying or selling foreign currency to counter these speculative pressures, signaling its commitment to maintaining a stable exchange rate and deterring further destabilizing speculation.

  3. Achieving Macroeconomic Objectives: The exchange rate is a powerful tool influencing a country's economy. The central bank might intervene to:

    • Control Inflation: A depreciating domestic currency makes imports more expensive, potentially leading to imported inflation. The central bank might sell foreign currency to strengthen the domestic currency and curb inflationary pressures. …

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