Growth of Population

Growth of Population

Population growth is simply the change in the number of people living in a particular area between two points in time. It is usually expressed as a percentage. This growth has two components: natural growth and induced growth.

Natural growth is analysed by looking at the crude birth rate and the crude death rate. Induced growth, on the other hand, is explained by the movement of people into and out of an area (migration). In this chapter, the focus is only on the natural growth of India’s population.

The decadal and annual growth rates of India’s population have been both very high and steadily increasing over time. As of the 2011 Census, the annual growth rate of India’s population stood at 1.64 per cent.

Population Doubling Time is the time it would take for a population to double in size at its current annual growth rate.

Over the last one century, the growth rate of India’s population has been shaped by the annual birth rate, death rate, and the rate of migration. This has produced four distinct phases of growth.

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The Four Phases of Population Growth in India (1901–2011)

Phase I: Stagnant or Stationary Phase (1901–1921)

This period is called the stagnant or stationary phase because the growth rate was very low. In fact, during 1911–1921, India recorded a negative growth rate — the population actually declined.

Both the birth rate and the death rate were high, which kept the overall rate of increase low. The reasons for this were:

• Poor health and medical services
• Widespread illiteracy
• An inefficient system for distributing food and other basic necessities

Phase II: Steady Population Growth (1921–1951)

This period saw a steady increase in population. The key change was an overall improvement in health and sanitation across the country, which brought down the mortality rate. At the same time, better transport and communication systems improved the distribution of food and supplies.

The crude birth rate remained high during this phase, leading to a higher growth rate than in the previous phase. This is particularly notable because it happened against the backdrop of the Great Economic Depression of the 1920s and World War II.

Phase III: Population Explosion (1951–1981)

This period is referred to as the population explosion in India. It was caused by a rapid fall in the mortality rate while the fertility rate remained high. The average annual growth rate was as high as 2.2 per cent.

After Independence, developmental activities were introduced through a centralised planning process. The economy started improving, and the living conditions of people at large got better. This led to a high natural increase and a higher growth rate. Additionally, increased international migration — including Tibetans, Bangladeshis, Nepalis, and people from Pakistan — also contributed to the high growth rate.

Phase IV: Post-1981 to Present — Slowing Down

From 1981 onwards, the growth rate of India’s population, though still high, has started slowing down gradually. The main reason for this is a downward trend in the crude birth rate.

This decline in the birth rate was influenced by:

• An increase in the mean age at marriage
• An improved quality of life, especially the education of females

Despite this slowdown, the growth rate remains high. The World Development Report has projected that India’s population will touch 1,350 million by 2025.

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Decadal Growth Rates in India (1901–2011)

The table below shows the absolute numbers and the percentage growth rate for each decade.