Q.A black and red die are rolled together. Find the conditional probability of obtaining the sum 8, given that the red die resulted in a number less than 4.
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Conditional Probability
Roll a die and ask "what is the chance of an even number?" — that is 3/6. But suppose someone tells you the result is greater than 3. Now you are no longer looking at all six faces, only at {4,5,6}, and two of those (4 and 6) are even, so the probability becomes 2/3. That change — from the probability of A to the probability of A given that B has already occurred — is conditional probability.
The Idea: Shrink the Sample Space
Conditioning on B throws away every outcome where B is false and treats B as the new "whole world." You measure A only against what is still possible.
Think of filtering a table of data: unconditional probability uses every row; conditional probability keeps only the rows where the condition is true.
The Definition
For events A and B with P(B)>0,
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B).
We divide by P(B) to rescale so that B itself has probability 1; the surviving part of A is the overlap A∩B. Checking the die: P(A∩B)=P({4,6})=62 and P(B)=63, so P(A∣B)=3/62/6=32, matching the intuition.
Rearranging gives the multiplication rule P(A∩B)=P(A∣B)P(B), which is usually the easier way to compute a joint probability when a problem says "given that."
Two Cautions
- P(A∣B) and P(B∣A) are generally not equal; swapping them is the classic mistake. They are linked by Bayes' theorem, P(A∣B)=P(B)P(B∣A)P(A). …
Condition on the red die showing <4 (i.e. 1,2,3), giving 18 equally likely outcomes, then count those with sum …
The conditional probability is 91.
Concept. P(A∣B)=n(B)n(A∩B) for equally likely outcomes.
Why this method. Restricting to the event B (red die <4) reduces the sample space to the outcomes we must count over.
Working. Let B: red die shows a number less than 4, so red ∈{1,2,3} and n(B)=3×6=18. …
Showing the 12 most recent of 24 on this concept.
- GUJCET 2026Set x1 markMCQQ.Let A and B be two events such that P(A)=115, P(B)=112 and P(A∪B)=113, then P(A′∣B′)= ______ (A) 98 (B) 53 (C) 21 (D) 92
›Reveal solutionSolution
[!TLDR] P(A′∣B′)=1−P(B)1−P(A∪B)=98.
Concept
By De Morgan's law A′∩B′=(A∪B)′, so P(A′∩B′)=1−P(A∪B). Then the conditional probability is P(A′∣B′)=P(B′)P(A′∩B′) with P(B′)=1−P(B).
Solution …
- GUJCET 2026Set x1 markMCQQ.If A and B are any two events such that P(A)+P(B)−P(A and B)=P(A), then ______ (A) P(B∣A′)=1 (B) P(B∣A)=0 (C) P(A∣B)=1 (D) P(A∣B)=0
›Reveal solutionSolution
Simplify the given relation to find P(A∩B)=P(B), i.e. B⊆A effectively.
Given P(A)+P(B)−P(A and B)=P(A), which reduces to:
P(B)−P(A∩B)=0⇒P(A∩B)=P(B). …
- GUJCET 2026Set x1 markMCQQ.Three cards are drawn successively, without replacement from a pack of 52 well shuffled cards. The probability that first two cards are kings and the third card drawn is an ace is ______ (A) 1352001 (B) 55252 (C) 55253 (D) 1352003
›Reveal solutionSolution
Multiply the successive conditional probabilities for drawing without replacement.
First card king: 524. Second card king (3 kings left of 51): 513. Third card ace (4 aces still present of 50): 504. …
- GSEB Higher Secondary Certificate (HSC) Examination 2026Set ANNUAL1 markMCQQ.If P(A/B)>P(A), then which of the following is true?(a) P(B∣A)<P(B)(b) P(A∩B)<P(A)⋅P(B)(c) P(B∣A)>P(B)(d) P(B∣A)=P(B)
›Reveal solutionSolution
Convert the given inequality into one about the joint probability, then flip it around to get P(B∣A).
P(A∣B)>P(A)⇒P(B)P(A∩B)>P(A)⇒P(A∩B)>P(A)P(B).
…
- CA Foundation 2026Set jan-20261 markMCQQ.If in a class, 50% of the student study mathematics and science and 70% of the student study mathematics, then the probability of a student studying science given that he/she is already studying mathematics is (A) 73 (B) 76 (C) 74 (D) 75
›Reveal solutionSolution
Conditional probability P(S∣M)=P(M)P(M∩S).
Step 1 — identify the probabilities
50% study both maths and science, so P(M∩S)=0.5; 70% study maths, so P(M)=0.7.
Step 2 — apply the conditional-probability formula
P(S∣M)=P(M)P(M∩S)=0.70.5=75. …
- CA Foundation 2026Set jan-20261 markMCQQ.If two dice are rolled, then the probability of getting a greater number on the first die than the one on the second, given that the sum should be equal to 7 is (A) 21 (B) 31 (C) 61 (D) 32
›Reveal solutionSolution
Conditional probability on a reduced sample space: P(A∣B)=n(B)n(A∩B).
Step 1 — list the outcomes with sum 7.
(1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),(5,2),(6,1)⇒n(B)=6.
Step 2 — count first die greater than second, among those.
(4,3),(5,2),(6,1) → 3 outcomes.
Step 3 — conditional probability.
P=63=21. …
- GUJCET 2025Set 031 markMCQQ.Let A and B be two events such that P(A)=83, P(B)=85 and P(A∪B)=43. Then P(A′∣B)−P(A∣B)= _____. (A) 51 (B) 53 (C) 52 (D) 54
›Reveal solutionSolution
P(A∩B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∪B), then use conditional probabilities on B.
P(A∩B)=83+85−43=1−43=41. …
- GUJCET 2025Set 031 markMCQQ.A man is known to speak truth 4 out of 5 times. He throws a die and reports that it is a six. The probability that actually there was a six is (A) 95 (B) 94 (C) 355 (D) 354
›Reveal solutionSolution
P(six∣reports six)=P(6)P(T)+P(not 6)P(lie)P(6)P(T).
Let P(6)=61, P(not 6)=65, truth =54, lie =51. …
- GSEB Higher Secondary Certificate (HSC) Examination 2025Set ANNUAL1 markMCQQ.If P(A)=0.8, P(B)=0.5, and P(B/A)=0.4, then P(A/B) = ____.(a) 0.16(b) 0.64(c) 0.32(d) 0.40
›Reveal solutionSolution
Find P(A∩B) from P(B/A) first, then use it to get P(A/B).
P(A∩B)=P(B/A)⋅P(A)=0.4×0.8=0.32.
…
- GUJCET 2024Set 131 markMCQQ.If A and B are two events such that P(B)=0 and P(A∣B)=1, then __________. (A) B=ϕ (B) B⊂A (C) A=ϕ (D) A⊂B
›Reveal solutionSolution
P(A∣B)=1 forces P(A∩B)=P(B), meaning B⊂A.
Concept. By definition P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B).
Steps. Given P(A∣B)=1 and P(B)=0,
P(B)P(A∩B)=1⇒P(A∩B)=P(B). …
- CA Foundation 2023Set jun-20231 markMCQQ.If P(A)=31,P(B)=41,P(A/B)=61, the probability P(B/A) is (A) 81 (B) 41 (C) 83 (D) 21
›Reveal solutionSolution
P(B/A) = P(A∩B)/P(A) = (1/24)/(1/3) = 1/8.
Step 1 — Find the joint probability
P(A∩B)=P(A/B)P(B)=61×41=241
Step 2 — Apply the definition of conditional probability
P(B/A)=P(A)P(A∩B)=1/31/24=243=81
Watch outP(A/B) and P(B/A) are not equal — you must recompute the joint probability first, then divide by P(A), not P(B). …
- GUJCET 2022Set 081 markMCQQ.Probability that A speaks truth is 54. A coin is tossed. A reports that a head appears. The probability that actually there was head is ______. (A) 52 (B) 54 (C) 51 (D) 21
›Reveal solutionSolution
A truthful reporter (p = 4/5) on a fair coin makes the reported head almost as reliable as their honesty.
Concept. Bayes' theorem: P(H∣R)=P(R∣H)P(H)+P(R∣T)P(T)P(R∣H)P(H).
Solution. P(H)=P(T)=21. A reports head truthfully with prob 54 (if head) and lies with prob 51 (if tail). …
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