Q.If P(A)=137, P(B)=139 and P(A∩B)=134, evaluate P(A∣B).
Concept understanding — Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
Roll a die and ask "what is the chance of an even number?" — that is 3/6. But suppose someone tells you the result is greater than 3. Now you are no longer looking at all six faces, only at {4,5,6}, and two of those (4 and 6) are even, so the probability becomes 2/3. That change — from the probability of A to the probability of A given that B has already occurred — is conditional probability.
The Idea: Shrink the Sample Space
Conditioning on B throws away every outcome where B is false and treats B as the new "whole world." You measure A only against what is still possible.
Think of filtering a table of data: unconditional probability uses every row; conditional probability keeps only the rows where the condition is true.
The Definition
For events A and B with P(B)>0,
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B).
We divide by P(B) to rescale so that B itself has probability 1; the surviving part of A is the overlap A∩B. Checking the die: P(A∩B)=P({4,6})=62 and P(B)=63, so P(A∣B)=3/62/6=32, matching the intuition.
Rearranging gives the multiplication rule P(A∩B)=P(A∣B)P(B), which is usually the easier way to compute a joint probability when a problem says "given that."
Two Cautions
- P(A∣B) and P(B∣A) are generally not equal; swapping them is the classic mistake. They are linked by Bayes' theorem, P(A∣B)=P(B)P(B∣A)P(A).
- If P(A∣B)=P(A), then knowing B tells you nothing about A — the events are independent. That is a special case, not the general rule.
Conditional probability is the foundation of the multiplication theorem, independence, and Bayes' theorem — every "given that" question in this chapter rests on it.
Conditional Probability opens the CBSE Class 12 Probability chapter and is foundational for everything that follows in that unit, including Bayes' theorem and the multiplication rule — making "conditional probability formula class 12 with examples" one of the most searched topics in Class 12 Mathematics. It is equally important for JEE Main and CUET, where conditional probability questions are set almost every year.
Concept: Conditional Probability — the probability of A given B is the ratio of their intersection to the probability of B.
Step 1: Write the formula for conditional probability:
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B)
Step 2: Substitute the given values:
P(A∣B)=139134
Step 3: Simplify by cancelling 131:
P(A∣B)=94
The value is 94.
Using the definition of conditional probability, P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B). Substituting the given values gives 9/134/13=94.
Conditional probability answers the question: If we know that event B has occurred, how does that change the chance that event A also occurs? The key insight is that knowing B happened restricts the "sample space" to just the outcomes in B. So instead of measuring P(A) against the whole space, we measure P(A∩B) — the part of A that lies inside B — against P(B).
This is exactly the formula:
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B)
It works because we are renormalising the probability of the overlap by the probability of the new "universe" (B). No extra conditions needed — just plug in the numbers.
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Identify the given probabilities:
P(A)=137, P(B)=139, P(A∩B)=134.
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Write the definition of conditional probability:
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B)
- Substitute the known values:
P(A∣B)=139134
- Simplify the fraction: The 131 cancels in numerator and denominator, leaving
P(A∣B)=94
A common mistake is to use P(A) instead of P(A∩B) in the numerator. Remember: conditional probability only cares about the part of A that overlaps with B — not the whole of A.
Notice that P(A)=137 was not needed at all for this calculation. Sometimes problems give extra information to test whether you know the correct formula.
The value is 94.
Method: Computing a conditional probability from the three basic quantities
Use this direct approach whenever you are handed P(A), P(B) and P(A∩B) and asked for a conditional probability.
Steps
Step 1: Identify the conditioning event — it sets the denominator.
The event written after the vertical bar is the one you are "given," so its probability goes in the denominator. For P(A∣B) the condition is B.
Step 2: Apply the definition.
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B).
The numerator is always the joint probability P(A∩B) — the overlap — never P(A) on its own.
Step 3: Substitute and simplify; ignore any unused data.
Put the given fractions in and simplify. Questions often supply an extra value (such as P(A)) that is not needed — recognising that it plays no role is part of the skill, not a sign you missed a step.
Common Mistakes
Mistake 1: Putting P(A) in the numerator instead of P(A∩B).
Why it's wrong: conditional probability measures only the part of A lying inside B, which is P(A∩B). Using 9/137/13 gives 97, a wrong answer. Correct approach: always use P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B)=9/134/13=94.
Mistake 2: Trying to use the unneeded value P(A)=137.
Why it's wrong: the formula needs only P(A∩B) and P(B); the extra datum is a distractor. Correct approach: recognise which quantities the formula actually requires and ignore the rest.
Showing the 12 most recent of 24 on this concept.
- GUJCET 2021Set 151 markMCQQ.If P(A)=116, P(B)=115 and P(A∪B)=117, then P(BA)= (A) 54 (B) 32 (C) 114 (D) 112
›Reveal solutionSolution
Get P(A and B) from inclusion-exclusion, then divide by P(B).
Concept. P(A∩B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∪B) and P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B).
Solution. P(A∩B)=116+115−117=114. Then P(A∣B)=5/114/11=54.
✓Final answer(A) 54
ANSWER: (A)
- GUJCET 2019Set 171 markMCQQ.If 6P(A)=8P(B)=14P(A∩B)=1, then P(BA′)= (A) 74 (B) 53 (C) 73 (D) 52
›Reveal solutionSolution
With P(A)=61,P(B)=81,P(A∩B)=141: P(A′∣B)=1−P(B)P(A∩B)=73.
Concept: From 6P(A)=8P(B)=14P(A∩B)=1: P(B)=81, P(A∩B)=141.
P(A′∣B)=P(B)P(A′∩B)=1−P(B)P(A∩B)=1−1/81/14=1−148=73
✓Final answer(C) 73
ANSWER: (C)
- GUJCET 2026Set x1 markMCQQ.If A and B are any two events such that P(A)+P(B)−P(A and B)=P(A), then ______ (A) P(B∣A′)=1 (B) P(B∣A)=0 (C) P(A∣B)=1 (D) P(A∣B)=0
›Reveal solutionSolution
Simplify the given relation to find P(A∩B)=P(B), i.e. B⊆A effectively.
Given P(A)+P(B)−P(A and B)=P(A), which reduces to:
P(B)−P(A∩B)=0⇒P(A∩B)=P(B).
Therefore:
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B)=P(B)P(B)=1.
✓Final answerP(A∣B)=1
ANSWER: (C)
- GUJCET 2020Set 071 markMCQQ.If A and B are any two events such that P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)=P(A) then ________. (A) P(AB)=1 (B) P(BA)=0 (C) P(AB)=0 (D) P(BA)=1
›Reveal solutionSolution
P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)=P(A) forces P(A∩B)=P(B), meaning B is contained in A, so P(A/B)=1.
Concept. Rearrange the given equation: P(B)−P(A∩B)=0⇒P(A∩B)=P(B).
Step. Conditional probability: P(A/B)=P(B)P(A∩B)=P(B)P(B)=1.
Meanwhile P(B/A)=P(A)P(A∩B)=P(A)P(B), which need not be 1. So only option (D) is forced.
✓Final answer(D) P(A/B)=1
ANSWER: (D)
- GUJCET 2025Set 031 markMCQQ.Let A and B be two events such that P(A)=83, P(B)=85 and P(A∪B)=43. Then P(A′∣B)−P(A∣B)= _____. (A) 51 (B) 53 (C) 52 (D) 54
›Reveal solutionSolution
P(A∩B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∪B), then use conditional probabilities on B.
P(A∩B)=83+85−43=1−43=41.
P(A∣B)=5/81/4=52,P(A′∣B)=1−52=53.
P(A′∣B)−P(A∣B)=53−52=51.
✓Final answer(A) 51
ANSWER: (A)
- GUJCET 2026Set x1 markMCQQ.Let A and B be two events such that P(A)=115, P(B)=112 and P(A∪B)=113, then P(A′∣B′)= ______ (A) 98 (B) 53 (C) 21 (D) 92
›Reveal solutionSolution
[!TLDR] P(A′∣B′)=1−P(B)1−P(A∪B)=98.
Concept
By De Morgan's law A′∩B′=(A∪B)′, so P(A′∩B′)=1−P(A∪B). Then the conditional probability is P(A′∣B′)=P(B′)P(A′∩B′) with P(B′)=1−P(B).
Solution
P(A′∩B′)=1−P(A∪B)=1−113=118.
P(B′)=1−P(B)=1−112=119.
P(A′∣B′)=9/118/11=98.
[!ANSWER] (A) 98
- GUJCET 2021Set 151 markMCQQ.If A and B are two events such that P(A)=0 and P(AB)=1, then (A) B⊂A (B) B=∅ (C) A=∅ (D) A⊂B
›Reveal solutionSolution
[!TLDR] Melatonin is a pineal hormone controlling circadian rhythm, not the menstrual cycle. Estrogen, progesterone and relaxin are all reproductive hormones linked to the ovarian cycle.
Concept
In NCERT/CBSE-aligned human reproduction, the menstrual cycle is regulated by pituitary hormones (FSH, LH) and ovarian hormones. Estrogen (secreted by the growing follicle) causes the proliferative phase; progesterone (from the corpus luteum) maintains the secretory endometrium; and relaxin, also a corpus-luteum/reproductive hormone, prepares reproductive tissues. Melatonin, secreted by the pineal gland, governs the day–night biological clock and is not a menstrual-cycle hormone.
Solution
Evaluate each option:
- Progesterone — corpus luteum hormone, central to the cycle. Associated.
- Estrogen — follicular hormone, central to the cycle. Associated.
- Relaxin — a reproductive hormone of the ovary/corpus luteum. Associated.
- Melatonin — pineal hormone for circadian rhythm; not part of the menstrual cycle.
The hormone NOT associated with the menstrual cycle is melatonin.
[!ANSWER] (A) Melatonin
- GUJCET 2022Set 081 markMCQQ.Probability that A speaks truth is 54. A coin is tossed. A reports that a head appears. The probability that actually there was head is ______. (A) 52 (B) 54 (C) 51 (D) 21
›Reveal solutionSolution
A truthful reporter (p = 4/5) on a fair coin makes the reported head almost as reliable as their honesty.
Concept. Bayes' theorem: P(H∣R)=P(R∣H)P(H)+P(R∣T)P(T)P(R∣H)P(H).
Solution. P(H)=P(T)=21. A reports head truthfully with prob 54 (if head) and lies with prob 51 (if tail).
P(H∣R)=21⋅54+21⋅5121⋅54=52+10152=5/104/10=54.
✓Final answer(B) 54
ANSWER: (B)
- GUJCET 2025Set 031 markMCQQ.A man is known to speak truth 4 out of 5 times. He throws a die and reports that it is a six. The probability that actually there was a six is (A) 95 (B) 94 (C) 355 (D) 354
›Reveal solutionSolution
P(six∣reports six)=P(6)P(T)+P(not 6)P(lie)P(6)P(T).
Let P(6)=61, P(not 6)=65, truth =54, lie =51.
P=61⋅54+65⋅5161⋅54=4/30+5/304/30=94.
✓Final answer(B) 94
ANSWER: (B)
- GUJCET 2024Set 131 markMCQQ.If A and B are two events such that P(B)=0 and P(A∣B)=1, then __________. (A) B=ϕ (B) B⊂A (C) A=ϕ (D) A⊂B
›Reveal solutionSolution
P(A∣B)=1 forces P(A∩B)=P(B), meaning B⊂A.
Concept. By definition P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B).
Steps. Given P(A∣B)=1 and P(B)=0,
P(B)P(A∩B)=1⇒P(A∩B)=P(B).
The intersection carrying the whole probability of B means every outcome of B lies in A, i.e. B⊂A.
✓Final answer(B) B⊂A
ANSWER: (B)
- GUJCET 2026Set x1 markMCQQ.Three cards are drawn successively, without replacement from a pack of 52 well shuffled cards. The probability that first two cards are kings and the third card drawn is an ace is ______ (A) 1352001 (B) 55252 (C) 55253 (D) 1352003
›Reveal solutionSolution
Multiply the successive conditional probabilities for drawing without replacement.
First card king: 524. Second card king (3 kings left of 51): 513. Third card ace (4 aces still present of 50): 504.
P=524⋅513⋅504=13260048=55252.
✓Final answerP=55252
ANSWER: (B)
- GSEB Higher Secondary Certificate (HSC) Examination 2026Set ANNUAL1 markMCQQ.If P(A/B)>P(A), then which of the following is true?(a) P(B∣A)<P(B)(b) P(A∩B)<P(A)⋅P(B)(c) P(B∣A)>P(B)(d) P(B∣A)=P(B)
›Reveal solutionSolution
Convert the given inequality into one about the joint probability, then flip it around to get P(B∣A).
P(A∣B)>P(A)⇒P(B)P(A∩B)>P(A)⇒P(A∩B)>P(A)P(B).
Dividing by P(A): P(A)P(A∩B)>P(B), i.e. P(B∣A)>P(B).
✓Final answerThe correct option is (c) P(B∣A)>P(B).
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