Q.You are given that A and B are two events such that P(B)=53, P(A∣B)=21 and P(A∪B)=54, then P(A) equals
(A) 103
(B) 51
(C) 21
(D) 53
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🔒 Start your 14-day free trial to unlock the full solution →Concept understanding — Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
Roll a die and ask "what is the chance of an even number?" — that is 3/6. But suppose someone tells you the result is greater than 3. Now you are no longer looking at all six faces, only at {4,5,6}, and two of those (4 and 6) are even, so the probability becomes 2/3. That change — from the probability of A to the probability of A given that B has already occurred — is conditional probability.
The Idea: Shrink the Sample Space
Conditioning on B throws away every outcome where B is false and treats B as the new "whole world." You measure A only against what is still possible.
Think of filtering a table of data: unconditional probability uses every row; conditional probability keeps only the rows where the condition is true.
The Definition
For events A and B with P(B)>0,
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B).
We divide by P(B) to rescale so that B itself has probability 1; the surviving part of A is the overlap A∩B. Checking the die: P(A∩B)=P({4,6})=62 and P(B)=63, so P(A∣B)=3/62/6=32, matching the intuition.
Rearranging gives the multiplication rule P(A∩B)=P(A∣B)P(B), which is usually the easier way to compute a joint probability when a problem says "given that."
Two Cautions
- P(A∣B) and P(B∣A) are generally not equal; swapping them is the classic mistake. They are linked by Bayes' theorem, P(A∣B)=P(B)P(B∣A)P(A). …
Concept: Conditional Probability — P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B).
Step 1: Use the conditional probability formula to find P(A∩B).
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B)⟹21=3/5P(A∩B)
So P(A∩B)=21⋅53=103.
Step 2: Apply the addition rule:
P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)
Substitute known values:
54=P(A)+53−103
Step 3: Solve for P(A): …
Using the definition of conditional probability and the inclusion–exclusion principle, we find P(A∩B)=103 and then P(A)=21. The correct option is (C).
We start with what we know: P(B)=53, P(A∣B)=21, and P(A∪B)=54. The goal is to find P(A).
The key idea is that conditional probability gives us a direct link between P(A∣B) and the intersection P(A∩B). Once we have the intersection, the union formula lets us solve for P(A).
- Find P(A∩B) using conditional probability. By definition, P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B). Substitute the given values:
21=53P(A∩B)
Multiply both sides by 53:
P(A∩B)=21×53=103
- Use the inclusion–exclusion principle for P(A∪B). The formula is:
P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)
Plug in what we have:
54=P(A)+53−103
- Solve for P(A). First, combine the constants on the right:
53−103=106−103=103
So the equation becomes:
54=P(A)+103 …
Method: Solving for an unknown marginal probability
Use this when one marginal (say P(A)) is the unknown, and you are given a conditional probability plus a union.
Steps
Step 1: Turn the conditional into the intersection.
P(A∩B)=P(A∣B)P(B).
Step 2: Write the addition rule as an equation in the unknown.
P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B).
Every quantity except P(A) is now known.
Step 3: Rearrange and solve.
P(A)=P(A∪B)−P(B)+P(A∩B). …
Common Mistakes
Mistake 1: Setting P(A∩B) equal to P(A∣B).
Why it's wrong: the conditional must be multiplied by P(B) to become a joint probability. Correct approach: P(A∩B)=P(A∣B)P(B).
Mistake 2: Sign errors when isolating P(A). …
Showing the 12 most recent of 24 on this concept.
- GUJCET 2025Set 031 markMCQQ.Let A and B be two events such that P(A)=83, P(B)=85 and P(A∪B)=43. Then P(A′∣B)−P(A∣B)= _____. (A) 51 (B) 53 (C) 52 (D) 54
›Reveal solutionSolution
P(A∩B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∪B), then use conditional probabilities on B.
P(A∩B)=83+85−43=1−43=41. …
- GUJCET 2022Set 081 markMCQQ.Probability that A speaks truth is 54. A coin is tossed. A reports that a head appears. The probability that actually there was head is ______. (A) 52 (B) 54 (C) 51 (D) 21
›Reveal solutionSolution
A truthful reporter (p = 4/5) on a fair coin makes the reported head almost as reliable as their honesty.
Concept. Bayes' theorem: P(H∣R)=P(R∣H)P(H)+P(R∣T)P(T)P(R∣H)P(H).
Solution. P(H)=P(T)=21. A reports head truthfully with prob 54 (if head) and lies with prob 51 (if tail). …
- GUJCET 2021Set 151 markMCQQ.If P(A)=116, P(B)=115 and P(A∪B)=117, then P(BA)= (A) 54 (B) 32 (C) 114 (D) 112
›Reveal solutionSolution
Get P(A and B) from inclusion-exclusion, then divide by P(B).
Concept. P(A∩B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∪B) and P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B). …
- GUJCET 2019Set 171 markMCQQ.If 6P(A)=8P(B)=14P(A∩B)=1, then P(BA′)= (A) 74 (B) 53 (C) 73 (D) 52
›Reveal solutionSolution
With P(A)=61,P(B)=81,P(A∩B)=141: P(A′∣B)=1−P(B)P(A∩B)=73.
Concept: From 6P(A)=8P(B)=14P(A∩B)=1: P(B)=81, P(A∩B)=141. …
- GUJCET 2026Set x1 markMCQQ.Let A and B be two events such that P(A)=115, P(B)=112 and P(A∪B)=113, then P(A′∣B′)= ______ (A) 98 (B) 53 (C) 21 (D) 92
›Reveal solutionSolution
[!TLDR] P(A′∣B′)=1−P(B)1−P(A∪B)=98.
Concept
By De Morgan's law A′∩B′=(A∪B)′, so P(A′∩B′)=1−P(A∪B). Then the conditional probability is P(A′∣B′)=P(B′)P(A′∩B′) with P(B′)=1−P(B).
Solution …
- GUJCET 2026Set x1 markMCQQ.If A and B are any two events such that P(A)+P(B)−P(A and B)=P(A), then ______ (A) P(B∣A′)=1 (B) P(B∣A)=0 (C) P(A∣B)=1 (D) P(A∣B)=0
›Reveal solutionSolution
Simplify the given relation to find P(A∩B)=P(B), i.e. B⊆A effectively.
Given P(A)+P(B)−P(A and B)=P(A), which reduces to:
P(B)−P(A∩B)=0⇒P(A∩B)=P(B). …
- GUJCET 2020Set 071 markMCQQ.If A and B are any two events such that P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)=P(A) then ________. (A) P(AB)=1 (B) P(BA)=0 (C) P(AB)=0 (D) P(BA)=1
›Reveal solutionSolution
P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)=P(A) forces P(A∩B)=P(B), meaning B is contained in A, so P(A/B)=1.
Concept. Rearrange the given equation: P(B)−P(A∩B)=0⇒P(A∩B)=P(B).
Step. Conditional probability: P(A/B)=P(B)P(A∩B)=P(B)P(B)=1. …
- GUJCET 2025Set 031 markMCQQ.A man is known to speak truth 4 out of 5 times. He throws a die and reports that it is a six. The probability that actually there was a six is (A) 95 (B) 94 (C) 355 (D) 354
›Reveal solutionSolution
P(six∣reports six)=P(6)P(T)+P(not 6)P(lie)P(6)P(T).
Let P(6)=61, P(not 6)=65, truth =54, lie =51. …
- GUJCET 2021Set 151 markMCQQ.If A and B are two events such that P(A)=0 and P(AB)=1, then (A) B⊂A (B) B=∅ (C) A=∅ (D) A⊂B
›Reveal solutionSolution
[!TLDR] Melatonin is a pineal hormone controlling circadian rhythm, not the menstrual cycle. Estrogen, progesterone and relaxin are all reproductive hormones linked to the ovarian cycle.
Concept
In NCERT/CBSE-aligned human reproduction, the menstrual cycle is regulated by pituitary hormones (FSH, LH) and ovarian hormones. Estrogen (secreted by the growing follicle) causes the proliferative phase; progesterone (from the corpus luteum) maintains the secretory endometrium; and relaxin, also a corpus-luteum/reproductive hormone, prepares reproductive tissues. Melatonin, secreted by the pineal gland, governs the day–night biological clock and is not a menstrual-cycle hormone.
Solution
Evaluate each option: …
- GUJCET 2026Set x1 markMCQQ.Three cards are drawn successively, without replacement from a pack of 52 well shuffled cards. The probability that first two cards are kings and the third card drawn is an ace is ______ (A) 1352001 (B) 55252 (C) 55253 (D) 1352003
›Reveal solutionSolution
Multiply the successive conditional probabilities for drawing without replacement.
First card king: 524. Second card king (3 kings left of 51): 513. Third card ace (4 aces still present of 50): 504. …
- GUJCET 2024Set 131 markMCQQ.If A and B are two events such that P(B)=0 and P(A∣B)=1, then __________. (A) B=ϕ (B) B⊂A (C) A=ϕ (D) A⊂B
›Reveal solutionSolution
P(A∣B)=1 forces P(A∩B)=P(B), meaning B⊂A.
Concept. By definition P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B).
Steps. Given P(A∣B)=1 and P(B)=0,
P(B)P(A∩B)=1⇒P(A∩B)=P(B). …
- GSEB Higher Secondary Certificate (HSC) Examination 2026Set ANNUAL1 markMCQQ.If P(A/B)>P(A), then which of the following is true?(a) P(B∣A)<P(B)(b) P(A∩B)<P(A)⋅P(B)(c) P(B∣A)>P(B)(d) P(B∣A)=P(B)
›Reveal solutionSolution
Convert the given inequality into one about the joint probability, then flip it around to get P(B∣A).
P(A∣B)>P(A)⇒P(B)P(A∩B)>P(A)⇒P(A∩B)>P(A)P(B).
…
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