Q.An urn contains 10 black and 5 white balls. Two balls are drawn from the urn one after the other without replacement. What is the probability that both drawn balls are black?
Concept understanding — Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
Roll a die and ask "what is the chance of an even number?" — that is 3/6. But suppose someone tells you the result is greater than 3. Now you are no longer looking at all six faces, only at {4,5,6}, and two of those (4 and 6) are even, so the probability becomes 2/3. That change — from the probability of A to the probability of A given that B has already occurred — is conditional probability.
The Idea: Shrink the Sample Space
Conditioning on B throws away every outcome where B is false and treats B as the new "whole world." You measure A only against what is still possible.
Think of filtering a table of data: unconditional probability uses every row; conditional probability keeps only the rows where the condition is true.
The Definition
For events A and B with P(B)>0,
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B).
We divide by P(B) to rescale so that B itself has probability 1; the surviving part of A is the overlap A∩B. Checking the die: P(A∩B)=P({4,6})=62 and P(B)=63, so P(A∣B)=3/62/6=32, matching the intuition.
Rearranging gives the multiplication rule P(A∩B)=P(A∣B)P(B), which is usually the easier way to compute a joint probability when a problem says "given that."
Two Cautions
- P(A∣B) and P(B∣A) are generally not equal; swapping them is the classic mistake. They are linked by Bayes' theorem, P(A∣B)=P(B)P(B∣A)P(A).
- If P(A∣B)=P(A), then knowing B tells you nothing about A — the events are independent. That is a special case, not the general rule.
Conditional probability is the foundation of the multiplication theorem, independence, and Bayes' theorem — every "given that" question in this chapter rests on it.
Conditional Probability opens the CBSE Class 12 Probability chapter and is foundational for everything that follows in that unit, including Bayes' theorem and the multiplication rule — making "conditional probability formula class 12 with examples" one of the most searched topics in Class 12 Mathematics. It is equally important for JEE Main and CUET, where conditional probability questions are set almost every year.
Concept: Conditional Probability — the probability of the second event depends on the outcome of the first because there is no replacement.
Step 1: Total balls = 10+5=15.
Probability that the first ball is black:
P(first black)=1510=32
Step 2: After removing one black ball, remaining balls = 14, black balls left = 9.
Probability that the second ball is black, given the first was black:
P(second black∣first black)=149
Step 3: Multiply the probabilities (chain rule for conditional probability):
P(both black)=32×149=4218=73
The probability that both drawn balls are black is 73.
The probability that both drawn balls are black is 73. This is found by multiplying the probability of drawing a black ball first by the conditional probability of drawing a black ball second, given the first was black.
Why conditional probability works here
When we draw without replacement, the outcome of the first draw changes the composition of the urn for the second draw. That’s the heart of conditional probability: we want P(first black AND second black), which we can write as:
P(first black)×P(second black∣first black)
This is not just a formula — it’s common sense. If the first ball is black, the urn now has 9 black and 5 white balls left. The second draw’s probability depends entirely on what happened first.
For any two events A and B:
P(A∩B)=P(A)⋅P(B∣A)
Step-by-step solution
1. Probability that the first ball is black
Total balls initially: 10+5=15.
Black balls: 10.
So:
P(first black)=1510=32
2. Probability that the second ball is black, given the first was black
After removing one black ball, the urn has:
- Black balls left: 10−1=9
- Total balls left: 15−1=14
Thus:
P(second black∣first black)=149
3. Multiply the two probabilities
P(both black)=32×149=4218=73
A common mistake is to treat the draws as independent and write 1510×1510. That would be correct only if the ball were replaced. Without replacement, the denominator and numerator both shrink — ignoring that gives the wrong answer 94.
You can also solve this using combinations:
Number of ways to choose 2 black balls from 10: (210)=45
Number of ways to choose any 2 balls from 15: (215)=105
Probability = 10545=73.
This is faster when the order doesn’t matter — but the conditional probability method builds deeper intuition.
The probability that both drawn balls are black is 73.
Method: The multiplication theorem for draws without replacement
Use this whenever objects are drawn one after another without replacement and you want the probability that a specific sequence occurs, because each draw changes what remains.
Steps
Step 1: Write the joint event as a chain of conditionals.
P(A∩B)=P(A)P(B∣A).
The second factor is conditional because removing the first object alters the pool.
Step 2: Compute each factor by updating the counts.
Find P(A) from the original composition, then recompute the pool for P(B∣A): subtract one from both the favourable count and the total (e.g. 1510 then 149).
Step 3: Multiply.
Multiply the successive probabilities. As a check, the combinations method (kfavourable)/(ktotal) gives the same answer when order does not matter.
Common Mistakes
Mistake 1: Treating the two draws as independent (with replacement).
Why it's wrong: without replacement the urn shrinks, so the second probability is 149, not 1510 again; using 1510×1510 gives the wrong 94. Correct approach: use P(both black)=1510×149=73.
Mistake 2: Forgetting to reduce the total from 15 to 14 for the second draw.
Why it's wrong: one ball has already been removed, so both the black count and the total drop by one. Correct approach: update numerator and denominator together at each step.
Showing the 12 most recent of 45 on this concept.
- COMEDK 2024Set 2024-M1 markMCQQ.An urn contains 2 white and 2 black balls. A ball is drawn at random. If it is white it is not replaced into the urn. Otherwise it is replaced along with another ball of the same colour. The process is repeated. The probability that the third ball drawn is black is (A) 3017 (B) 6037 (C) 6031 (D) 3023
›Reveal solutionSolution
Conditioning on the first two draws (white -> not replaced; black -> replaced plus one extra black) and using total probability gives P(3rd black)=3023 — option (D).
Rules. Start with 2 white, 2 black (total 4). Drawing white removes it (whites −1, total −1). Drawing black puts it back and adds one more black (blacks +1, total +1).
First two draws and the composition just before the 3rd draw
- WW: 42⋅31=61; urn becomes W0, B2 (total 2) ⇒P(black)=1.
- WB: 42⋅32=31; urn becomes W1, B3 (total 4) ⇒P(black)=43.
- BW: 42⋅52=51; urn becomes W1, B3 (total 4) ⇒P(black)=43.
- BB: 42⋅53=103; urn becomes W2, B4 (total 6) ⇒P(black)=32.
(The four path probabilities sum to 61+31+51+103=1.)
Total probability
P(3rd black)=61(1)+31⋅43+51⋅43+103⋅32
=6010+6015+609+6012=6046=3023
✓Final answerP(third ball is black)=3023 — option (D).
ANSWER: D
- COMEDK 2021Set 2021-B1 markMCQQ.An urn contains 5 red and 5 black coloured balls. A ball is picked at random, its colour noted and then is put back into the urn. Now, additional two balls of the same colour are put into the urn and then a ball is drawn at random. What is the probability that the ball now chosen is red. (A) 7/24 (B) 1/2 (C) 5/8 (D) 2/3
›Reveal solutionSolution
By symmetry the second-draw red probability averages to 21.
Start: 5 red, 5 black (10 total). First ball is drawn, replaced, then 2 more of the same colour are added, so the urn always has 12 balls before the second draw.
- First ball red (P=105=21): urn now 7R, 5B ⇒ P(red)=127.
- First ball black (P=21): urn now 5R, 7B ⇒ P(red)=125.
Total probability:
21⋅127+21⋅125=247+5=2412=21.
✓Final answerThe correct option is (B) — 1/2
- KCET 2021Set A-11 markMCQQ.Given that A and B are two events such that P(B)=53, P(A/B)=21 and P(A∪B)=54, then P(A)= (A) 103 (B) 21 (C) 51 (D) 53
›Reveal solutionSolution
Turn the conditional probability into P(A∩B), then substitute into the addition theorem and solve for P(A).
Step 1 — Extract P(A∩B) from the conditional probability.
By definition,
P(A/B)=P(B)P(A∩B)(P(B)=0).
Rearranging (the multiplication theorem):
P(A∩B)=P(A/B)⋅P(B)=21×53=103.
This is the key move — the conditional probability is not directly usable in the union formula, but P(A∩B) is.
Step 2 — Apply the addition theorem.
P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B).
The intersection is subtracted because the elements common to A and B would otherwise be counted twice.
Step 3 — Substitute the known values.
54=P(A)+53−103.
Step 4 — Solve for P(A).
P(A)=54−53+103=51+103=102+103=105=21.
Consistency check. With P(A)=21, P(B)=53, P(A∩B)=103: note P(A)P(B)=21⋅53=103=P(A∩B), so A and B are independent — entirely consistent with P(A/B)=21=P(A). And P(A∪B)=21+53−103=105+6−3=108=54. ✓
✓Final answerThe correct option is (B) — 21.
ANSWER: B
- COMEDK 2025Set 2025-E1 markMCQQ.A pot contains 5 red and 2 green balls. A ball is drawn at random from this pot. If a drawn ball is green, then a red ball is added to the pot. If a drawn ball is red, then a green ball is added to the pot, while the original ball drawn is not replaced in the pot. Now a second ball is drawn at random from the pot, what is the probability that the second ball drawn is a red ball? (A) 4912 (B) 4932 (C) 73 (D) 4927
›Reveal solutionSolution
Condition on the first draw: P(2nd red)=72⋅76+75⋅74=4932.
Start: 5 red, 2 green, total 7. The first ball is not replaced, and a ball of the other colour is added.
Case 1 — first ball is green. P=72.
Remove that green (5R,1G), then add a red ⇒6R,1G (total 7).
P(2nd red∣green first)=76
Case 2 — first ball is red. P=75.
Remove that red (4R,2G), then add a green ⇒4R,3G (total 7).
P(2nd red∣red first)=74
Total probability:
P(2nd red)=72⋅76+75⋅74=4912+4920=4932
✓Final answerP(second ball red)=4932 — option (B).
- COMEDK 2023Set 2023-E1 markMCQQ.Bag A contains 3 white and 2 red balls. Bag B contains only 1 white ball. A fair coin is tossed. If head appears then 1 ball is drawn at random from bag A and put into bag B. However if tail appears then 2 balls are drawn at random from bag A and put into bag B. Now one ball is drawn at random from bag B. Given that the drawn ball from B is white, the probability that head appeared on the coin is (A) 3023 (B) 2312 (C) 2311 (D) 3019
›Reveal solutionSolution
Computing P(white drawn∣H)=54 and P(white∣T)=1511, Bayes' theorem gives P(H∣white)=2312.
Head (transfer 1 ball from A(3W,2R) to B(1W), then draw from B's 2 balls):
P(white)=53(1)+52(21)=53+51=54.
Tail (transfer 2 balls from A to B(1W), then draw from B's 3 balls):
P(WW)=103⇒P(white)=1,P(WR)=106⇒32,P(RR)=101⇒31.
P(white∣T)=103+106⋅32+101⋅31=103+104+301=3022=1511.
With P(H)=P(T)=21:
P(H∣white)=21⋅54+21⋅151121⋅54=54+151154=15231512=2312.
✓Final answerThe correct option is (B) — 2312
- COMEDK 2025Set 2025-A1 markMCQQ.If for two events A and B,P(A−B)=51 and P(A)=53 then P(B/A)= (A) 32 (B) 21 (C) 53 (D) 52
›Reveal solutionSolution
The key is to interpret P(A−B) as P(A∩Bc) and use the definition of conditional probability. The result is P(B/A)=32, so option (A) is correct.
We are asked for P(B/A), the probability of B given A. The definition is
P(B/A)=P(A)P(A∩B).
We know P(A)=53, so we need P(A∩B). The given P(A−B)=51 is the key: A−B means “A and not B,” i.e., A∩Bc.
- Relate P(A−B) to P(A∩B) Since A is the union of the disjoint parts “A and B” and “A and not B,” we have
P(A)=P(A∩B)+P(A∩Bc).
Here P(A∩Bc)=P(A−B)=51 and P(A)=53.
- Solve for P(A∩B)
53=P(A∩B)+51⇒P(A∩B)=53−51=52.
- Apply the conditional probability formula
P(B/A)=P(A)P(A∩B)=3/52/5=32.
Watch outA common mistake is to confuse P(A−B) with P(Bc) or to think P(A−B)=P(A)−P(B). Remember: A−B is only the part of A that excludes B, not the whole complement of B.
TipVisualize a Venn diagram: A is a circle split into the B overlap and the rest. P(A−B) is the “crescent” of A outside B. Subtracting that from P(A) gives the overlap directly.
✓Final answerThe correct option is (A).
ANSWER: A
- COMEDK 2026Set 2026-A1 markMCQQ.Vishnu has two jars of marbles, Jar A and Jar B. Jar A contains 3 yellow marbles and 2 green marbles. Jar B contains 4 yellow marbles and 3 green marbles. Vishnu flips a fair coin. If it lands heads, he picks two marbles at random without replacement from Jar A. If it lands tails, he picks two marbles at random with replacement from Jar B. Given that Vishnu picked one yellow and one green marble, what is the probability that they came from Jar B? (A) 4121 (B) 8949 (C) 8940 (D) 4120
›Reveal solutionSolution
P(E∣A)=53 (without replacement), P(E∣B)=4924 (with replacement); Bayes gives P(B∣E)=8940 — option (C).
Likelihoods of drawing one yellow and one green (E).
Jar A (3 yellow, 2 green; two draws without replacement):
P(E∣A)=(25)(13)(12)=106=53.
Jar B (4 yellow, 3 green; two draws with replacement):
P(E∣B)=2⋅74⋅73=4924.
Bayes' theorem with P(A)=P(B)=21 (the 21 cancels):
P(B∣E)=P(E∣A)+P(E∣B)P(E∣B)=53+49244924.
Combine the denominator over 245:
53+4924=245147+120=245267.
P(B∣E)=4924⋅267245=26724⋅5=267120=8940.
✓Final answerP(B∣E)=8940, which is option (C).
- COMEDK 2024Set 2024-E1 markMCQQ.Suppose we have three cards identical in form except that both sides of the first card are coloured red, both sides of the second are coloured black, and one side of the third card is coloured red and the other side is coloured black. The three cards are mixed and a card is picked randomly. If the upper side of the chosen card is coloured red, what is the probability that the other side is coloured black. (A) 61 (B) 21 (C) 0 (D) 31
›Reveal solutionSolution
This is a classic conditional probability problem (often called the "three cards" or "Bertrand's box" variant). The key is that seeing a red side updates the probability space to only the red sides, and among those, only one belongs to the mixed card. The answer is 1/3.
We are asked: given that the visible side is red, what is the probability that the other side is black? This is not simply "one of the two remaining cards has a black other side" because the cards are not equally likely once we condition on the observation.
Concept and Intuition
The pitfall is to think: "We see red, so the card is either the all-red or the mixed card. That's two possibilities, so the chance is 1/2." But this ignores that the all-red card has two red sides, while the mixed card has only one red side. When we pick a card at random and then look at a random side, each of the six sides is equally likely to be the one we see. Seeing red eliminates the three black sides, leaving only the three red sides. Among those three red sides, two belong to the all-red card and only one belongs to the mixed card. So the probability that the other side is black is 1/3.
Step-by-step reasoning
-
Label the sides.
Let the cards be:
- Card A: both sides red (sides R1,R2)
- Card B: both sides black (sides B1,B2)
- Card C: one red, one black (sides R3,B3)
-
Count equally likely outcomes.
When we pick a card uniformly at random and then look at a random side, there are 3×2=6 equally likely side-views. Each of the six sides has probability 1/6 of being the one we see.
-
Condition on seeing a red side.
The red sides are: R1,R2 (from card A) and R3 (from card C). That's 3 red sides. So the conditional space has 3 equally likely possibilities.
-
Identify which of these have the other side black.
Only the red side R3 (from card C) has a black other side. The other two red sides (R1,R2) have red on the other side.
-
Compute the conditional probability.
P(other side black∣top side red)=total number of red sidesnumber of favorable red sides=31.
Watch outThe common mistake is to forget that the all-red card contributes two red sides to the sample space, making it twice as likely as the mixed card once we condition on seeing red.
TipA neat way to think: "Probability = (number of red sides with black opposite) / (total number of red sides)." This avoids the card-counting trap entirely.
✓Final answerThe correct option is (D).
ANSWER: D
-
- COMEDK 2023Set 2023-E1 markMCQQ.
[!FORMULA] If P(B)=53P(A/B)=21 and P(A∪B)=54 then P(A∪B)′+P(A′∪B)=
(A) 54 (B) 21 (C) 1 (D) 51›Reveal solutionSolution
Step 5: sum = 1/5 + 4/5 = 1.
Concept: conditional probability, addition theorem, complements, De Morgan.
Given P(B) = 3/5, P(A|B) = 1/2, P(A U B) = 4/5.
Step 1: P(A ^ B) = P(A|B) P(B) = (1/2)(3/5) = 3/10.
Step 2: from P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ^ B),
P(A) = 4/5 - 3/5 + 3/10 = 1/5 + 3/10 = 1/2.
Step 3: P((A U B)') = 1 - P(A U B) = 1 - 4/5 = 1/5.
Step 4: P(A' U B) = 1 - P((A' U B)') = 1 - P(A ^ B') [De Morgan]
P(A ^ B') = P(A) - P(A ^ B) = 1/2 - 3/10 = 1/5.
So P(A' U B) = 1 - 1/5 = 4/5.
Step 5: sum = 1/5 + 4/5 = 1.
✓Final answerThe correct option is (C) — 1
ANSWER: C
- COMEDK 2026Set 2026-M1 markMCQQ.A teacher has two jars of candy on her desk: Jar 1: Contains 3 Strawberry candies and 2 Orange candies. Jar 2: Contains 1 Strawberry candy and 4 Orange candies. The teacher randomly picks two candies from Jar 1 and drops them into Jar 2. Then, a student reaches into Jar 2 and picks two candies. What is the probability that the student picks two Strawberry candies? (A) 356 (B) 214 (C) 703 (D) 141
›Reveal solutionSolution
Condition on how many strawberries move from Jar 1 to Jar 2, then compute the chance of drawing two strawberries from the now 7-candy Jar 2. Total =141.
Setup. Jar 1 has 3 Strawberry (S) and 2 Orange (O). Two candies are moved into Jar 2, which started with 1 S and 4 O. After the transfer Jar 2 holds 7 candies. Let k = number of strawberries transferred.
Transfer probabilities (choosing 2 of 5 from Jar 1, (25)=10):
P(k=2)=10(23)=103,P(k=1)=10(13)(12)=106,P(k=0)=10(22)=101.
Draw two S from Jar 2 (which now has 1+k strawberries out of 7, (27)=21):
- k=2: Jar 2 has 3 S ⇒21(23)=213=71.
- k=1: Jar 2 has 2 S ⇒21(22)=211.
- k=0: Jar 2 has 1 S ⇒21(21)=0.
Total probability.
P=103⋅71+106⋅211+101⋅0=703+351=703+702=705=141.
✓Final answerThe probability is 141 — option (D).
- COMEDK 2025Set 2025-A1 markMCQQ.Three bags contain a number of red and white balls are as follows. Bag I: 3 red balls Bag II: 2 red balls and 1 white ball Bag III: 3 White balls The probability that bag i will be chosen and a ball is selected from it is 6i,i=1,2,3. If a white ball is selected, what is the probablity that it came from Bag III (A) 119 (B) 112 (C) 0 (D) 111
›Reveal solutionSolution
This is a classic Bayes’ theorem problem: we are given prior probabilities for choosing each bag and the conditional probabilities of drawing a white ball from each bag; after observing a white ball, we want the posterior probability that it came from Bag III. The answer is 119.
We start by noting that the problem gives us three bags with different compositions, and a rule for choosing a bag: the probability of picking bag i is 6i. Then, from that bag, we pick a ball uniformly at random. We are told that a white ball was selected, and we need the probability that it came from Bag III. This is a textbook case for Bayes’ theorem, which lets us “reverse” conditional probabilities: we know P(white∣bag i), and we want P(bag i∣white).
Let’s work through it step by step.
- Define events and write down given probabilities. Let Bi be the event that bag i is chosen (i=1,2,3). We are told:
P(B1)=61,P(B2)=62,P(B3)=63.
Let W be the event that a white ball is drawn.
From the bag compositions:
- Bag I: 3 red, 0 white → P(W∣B1)=0.
- Bag II: 2 red, 1 white → P(W∣B2)=31.
- Bag III: 0 red, 3 white → P(W∣B3)=1.
- Compute the total probability of drawing a white ball. By the law of total probability:
P(W)=P(B1)P(W∣B1)+P(B2)P(W∣B2)+P(B3)P(W∣B3).
Substitute:
P(W)=61⋅0+62⋅31+63⋅1=0+182+63=91+21.
Get a common denominator (18):
P(W)=182+189=1811.
- Apply Bayes’ theorem to find P(B3∣W). Bayes’ theorem says:
P(B3∣W)=P(W)P(B3)P(W∣B3).
Plug in the numbers:
P(B3∣W)=181163⋅1=181121=21⋅1118=119.
TipNotice that Bag I contributes zero probability of a white ball, so it can be ignored entirely in the numerator — it only affects the denominator by adding zero. This often simplifies Bayes’ calculations: only bags that can produce the observed outcome matter.
Watch outA common mistake is to forget that the prior probabilities 6i are not equal — they favor higher-numbered bags. If you mistakenly treated all bags as equally likely, you would get 21 instead of 119.
Thus, given that a white ball was drawn, the probability it came from Bag III is 119.
✓Final answerThe correct option is (A).
ANSWER: A
- COMEDK 2025Set 2025-E1 markMCQQ.Two numbers are selected at random from integers 1 to 9 . If their sum is even, what is the probability that both the numbers are odd? (A) 94 (B) 85 (C) 61 (D) 32
›Reveal solutionSolution
This is a conditional probability problem: given that the sum of two numbers from 1–9 is even, we want the probability both are odd. The answer is 5/8, option (B).
We are selecting two numbers from 1 to 9 without replacement (since "selected at random" from distinct integers usually implies no repetition). The sum is even only if both numbers are odd or both are even. So the condition restricts us to those pairs. The question asks: among those pairs with an even sum, what fraction consists of two odd numbers?
1. Count total possible pairs (without replacement)
From 1 to 9, there are 9 numbers. The number of ways to choose any two distinct numbers is
(29)=36.
2. Count pairs with an even sum
A sum is even when both numbers have the same parity.
-
Odd numbers from 1 to 9: 1, 3, 5, 7, 9 → 5 odds.
Number of odd–odd pairs: (25)=10.
-
Even numbers from 1 to 9: 2, 4, 6, 8 → 4 evens.
Number of even–even pairs: (24)=6.
So total pairs with an even sum:
10+6=16.
3. Apply conditional probability
We want
P(both odd∣sum even)=Number of even-sum pairsNumber of odd–odd pairs=1610=85.
TipA common mistake is to treat this as an unconditional probability and compute 3610, which gives 185 — not even among the options. The condition "given sum is even" changes the denominator from 36 to 16.
Watch outAnother pitfall: forgetting that selection is without replacement. If replacement were allowed, the counts would differ, but here the problem implies distinct integers.
✓Final answerThe correct option is (B).
ANSWER: B
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