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Q.In two identical boxes, box I contains 2 gold coins, while box II contains one gold and one silver coin. A person chooses a box at random and takes out a coin. If the coin is of gold, what is the probability that the other coin in the box is also a gold?

Karnataka PUCKarnataka II PUC Board 2025Subjective· 3mImportance★★★★★
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This is a Bayes'-theorem problem: given the drawn coin is gold, the other being gold means box I was chosen; probability =23=\dfrac23.

Step 1 — Define events.

Let

E1=E_1= event that box I is chosen,

E2=E_2= event that box II is chosen,

G=G= event that the coin drawn is gold.

Box I contains 2 gold coins; box II contains 1 gold and 1 silver coin. The 'other coin is also gold' precisely when the box chosen is box I. So we need P(E1∣G)P(E_1\mid G).

Step 2 — Prior probabilities.

A box is chosen at random, so

P(E1)=P(E2)=12.P(E_1)=P(E_2)=\frac12.

Step 3 — Conditional probabilities of drawing gold.

From box I both coins are gold: P(G∣E1)=22=1.P(G\mid E_1)=\dfrac{2}{2}=1.

From box II one of two coins is gold: P(G∣E2)=12.P(G\mid E_2)=\dfrac12. …

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