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Q.Bag I contains 3 red and 4 black balls while another bag II contains 5 red and 6 black balls. One ball is drawn at random from one of the bags and it is found to be red. Find the probability that it was drawn from bag II.

Karnataka PUCKarnataka II PUC Board 2026Subjective· 3mImportance★★★★★
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Apply Bayes' theorem with equal prior probabilities of picking each bag; the required probability is 3568\dfrac{35}{68}.

Step 1 — Define events. Let E1=E_1= "Bag I is chosen", E2=E_2= "Bag II is chosen", and R=R= "the drawn ball is red". Since one bag is chosen at random,

P(E1)=P(E2)=12.P(E_1)=P(E_2)=\frac12.

Step 2 — Conditional probabilities. Bag I has 33 red out of 3+4=73+4=7 balls; Bag II has 55 red out of 5+6=115+6=11 balls:

P(R∣E1)=37,P(R∣E2)=511.P(R\mid E_1)=\frac37,\qquad P(R\mid E_2)=\frac{5}{11}.

Step 3 — Bayes' theorem.

P(E2∣R)=P(E2) P(R∣E2)P(E1) P(R∣E1)+P(E2) P(R∣E2).P(E_2\mid R)=\frac{P(E_2)\,P(R\mid E_2)}{P(E_1)\,P(R\mid E_1)+P(E_2)\,P(R\mid E_2)}.

Step 4 — Substitute. …

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