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Mathematics · Ch 14 — Probability

Occurrence of an Event

14.1.1

Occurrence of an Event

Occurrence of an Event

When we talk about an event in probability, we are not just naming a possibility — we are describing a specific collection of outcomes from the sample space. The real question is: when does that event actually happen?

Consider the experiment of throwing a fair die. The sample space is S={1,2,3,4,5,6}S = \{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6\}. Let EE denote the event "a number less than 4 appears". This means E={1,2,3}E = \{1, 2, 3\}.

Now suppose you throw the die and the outcome is 1. Since 1 belongs to EE, we say that event EE has occurred. Similarly, if the outcome is 2 or 3, event EE has occurred. But if the outcome is 4, 5, or 6, then the outcome does not belong to EE, and we say that event EE has not occurred.

This leads to the precise definition:

Important

For a given sample space SS, an event EE (which is a subset of SS) is said to have occurred if the outcome ω\omega of the experiment satisfies ω∈E\omega \in E. If ω∉E\omega \notin E, the event EE has not occurred.

The idea is simple but foundational: an event occurs exactly when the actual outcome is one of the outcomes that the event includes. Nothing more, nothing less.

Watch out

A common mistake is to think that an event "occurs" if it is possible — that is not correct. An event occurs only when the actual outcome of the experiment belongs to that event. Possibility is about the event's definition; occurrence is about the real result.

This definition applies to every event, whether it is a simple event (a single outcome) or a compound event (a collection of outcomes). For example, if FF is the event "an even number appears", then F={2,4,6}F = \{2, 4, 6\}. If the die shows 4, FF has occurred; if it shows 3, FF has not occurred.

The same logic extends to the complement of an event. If EE has not occurred, then the outcome ω\omega belongs to the complement E′E' (or EcE^c), which is S−ES - E. So saying "event EE has not occurred" is exactly the same as saying "the complementary event E′E' has occurred". …