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Miscellaneous Exercise · Q4

Q.In a certain lottery 10,000 tickets are sold and ten equal prizes are awarded. What is the probability of not getting a prize if you buy

(a) one ticket
(b) two tickets
(c) 10 tickets.
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The probability of not winning a prize is the number of ways to pick tickets that are all non-winning divided by the total number of ways to pick your tickets. For (a) it's 999010000\frac{9990}{10000}, for (b) it's (99902)(100002)\frac{\binom{9990}{2}}{\binom{10000}{2}}, and for (c) it's (999010)(1000010)\frac{\binom{9990}{10}}{\binom{10000}{10}}.

Concept and Intuition

This is a classic combinations probability problem. The key idea: when you buy tickets, you are selecting a subset of tickets from the total pool. The lottery awards prizes to 10 specific tickets (the winning ones). You want the probability that none of your chosen tickets are among those 10 winners.

Because the tickets are distinct and the prizes are awarded to specific tickets, the number of ways to choose your tickets is given by combinations ((nr)\binom{n}{r}). The probability of "not getting a prize" is simply the number of ways to pick your tickets entirely from the non-winning pool divided by the total number of ways to pick your tickets from all tickets.

Watch out

A common mistake is to treat this as a "drawing without replacement" probability using fractions like 999010000×99899999×…\frac{9990}{10000} \times \frac{9989}{9999} \times \dots for multiple tickets. While that works, it becomes messy for 10 tickets. The combinations approach is cleaner and less error-prone.

Let's define:

  • Total tickets: N=10000N = 10000
  • Winning tickets: W=10W = 10
  • Non-winning tickets: L=N−W=9990L = N - W = 9990
  • Tickets you buy: nn (where n=1,2, or 10n = 1, 2, \text{ or } 10)

The probability of no prize is:

P(no prize)=ways to choose n tickets from the 9990 losersways to choose n tickets from all 10000 tickets=(9990n)(10000n)P(\text{no prize}) = \frac{\text{ways to choose } n \text{ tickets from the } 9990 \text{ losers}}{\text{ways to choose } n \text{ tickets from all } 10000 \text{ tickets}} = \frac{\binom{9990}{n}}{\binom{10000}{n}}

Now we compute for each case.


(a) One ticket

You buy just 1 ticket. The only way to not get a prize is if that single ticket is one of the 9990 losers.

P=(99901)(100001)=999010000=9991000P = \frac{\binom{9990}{1}}{\binom{10000}{1}} = \frac{9990}{10000} = \frac{999}{1000}

Tip

For a single ticket, this is just the fraction of non-winning tickets. Intuitively, you have a 9990 out of 10000 chance of picking a loser.


(b) Two tickets

You buy 2 tickets. You need both to be from the losing pool.

P=(99902)(100002)P = \frac{\binom{9990}{2}}{\binom{10000}{2}}

Let's simplify without computing huge numbers. Write out the combinations:

(99902)=9990×99892,(100002)=10000×99992\binom{9990}{2} = \frac{9990 \times 9989}{2}, \quad \binom{10000}{2} = \frac{10000 \times 9999}{2}

The 12\frac{1}{2} cancels, so:

P=9990×998910000×9999P = \frac{9990 \times 9989}{10000 \times 9999} …

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