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Q.A bag contains 3 black and 4 red balls. Two balls are drawn at random, one at a time, without replacement. Find the probability that the first ball is black if the second ball is known to be red.

Uttarakhand UbseUttarakhand Board Intermediate (Class 12) 2018Subjective· 6mImportance★★★★★
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Main: P(1st black∣2nd red)=12P(\text{1st black}\mid\text{2nd red})=\tfrac12. OR: number of kings has P(0,1,2)=188221,32221,1221P(0,1,2)=\tfrac{188}{221},\tfrac{32}{221},\tfrac{1}{221}.

Main part. Bag: 33 black, 44 red (77 total). Let B1B_1="first black", R2R_2="second red".

P(B1∩R2)=37⋅46=1242=27.P(B_1\cap R_2)=\frac37\cdot\frac46=\frac{12}{42}=\frac27.

P(R2)=P(B1)P(R2∣B1)+P(R1)P(R2∣R1)=37⋅46+47⋅36=1242+1242=2442=47.P(R_2)=P(B_1)P(R_2\mid B_1)+P(R_1)P(R_2\mid R_1)=\frac37\cdot\frac46+\frac47\cdot\frac36=\frac{12}{42}+\frac{12}{42}=\frac{24}{42}=\frac47.

P(B1∣R2)=P(B1∩R2)P(R2)=2/74/7=12.P(B_1\mid R_2)=\frac{P(B_1\cap R_2)}{P(R_2)}=\frac{2/7}{4/7}=\frac12.

OR part. Draw 22 cards; X=X= number of kings (X=0,1,2X=0,1,2). Total ways =(522)=1326=\binom{52}{2}=1326. …

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