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Q.A manufacturer has three machine operators A, B and C. The first operator A produces 4% defective items, where as the other two operators B and C produces 5% and 7% defective items respectively. A is on the job for 50% of the time, B is on the job for 30% of the time and C is on the job for 20% of the time. A defective item is produced, what is the probability that it was produced by B?

(OR)
Find the probability distribution of number of doublets in three throws of a pair of dice.
Uttarakhand UbseUttarakhand Board Intermediate (Class 12) 2023Subjective· 5mImportance★★★★★
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Main part: apply Bayes' theorem with the given prior (time-share) probabilities and conditional (defect-rate) probabilities. OR part: the number of doublets in 3 throws is Binomial with n=3, p=1/6n=3,\ p=1/6; tabulate P(X=0),…,P(X=3)P(X=0),\dots,P(X=3).

Main part. Let E1,E2,E3E_1,E_2,E_3 = item produced by A, B, C respectively, and DD = item is defective.

P(E1)=0.5, P(E2)=0.3, P(E3)=0.2P(E_1)=0.5,\ P(E_2)=0.3,\ P(E_3)=0.2.

P(D∣E1)=0.04, P(D∣E2)=0.05, P(D∣E3)=0.07P(D\mid E_1)=0.04,\ P(D\mid E_2)=0.05,\ P(D\mid E_3)=0.07.

By the law of total probability:

P(D)=P(E1)P(D∣E1)+P(E2)P(D∣E2)+P(E3)P(D∣E3)P(D)=P(E_1)P(D\mid E_1)+P(E_2)P(D\mid E_2)+P(E_3)P(D\mid E_3)

=0.5(0.04)+0.3(0.05)+0.2(0.07)=0.02+0.015+0.014=0.049=0.5(0.04)+0.3(0.05)+0.2(0.07)=0.02+0.015+0.014=0.049.

By Bayes' theorem:

P(E2∣D)=P(E2)P(D∣E2)P(D)=0.0150.049=1549P(E_2\mid D)=\dfrac{P(E_2)P(D\mid E_2)}{P(D)}=\dfrac{0.015}{0.049}=\dfrac{15}{49}.

OR part. For one throw of a pair of dice, P(doublet)=636=16P(\text{doublet})=\dfrac{6}{36}=\dfrac16 (outcomes (1,1),…,(6,6)(1,1),\dots,(6,6)), so P(no doublet)=56P(\text{no doublet})=\dfrac56.

Let XX = number of doublets in 3 throws. X∼Binomial(n=3, p=1/6)X\sim\text{Binomial}(n=3,\ p=1/6).

P(X=0)=(56)3=125216P(X=0)=\left(\dfrac56\right)^3=\dfrac{125}{216}.

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