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Q.(iii) A bulb is drawn at random from the total production and is found to be defective. What is the probability that it is manufactured by the machine B?

Uttarakhand UbseUttarakhand Board Intermediate (Class 12) 2024Subjective· 3mImportance★★★★★
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Apply Bayes' theorem: compute the total probability of a defective bulb P(E)P(E) using the law of total probability, then find P(L2∣E)=P(L2)P(E∣L2)/P(E)P(L_2|E)=P(L_2)P(E|L_2)/P(E).

Given: P(L1)=0.25, P(L2)=0.35, P(L3)=0.40P(L_1)=0.25,\ P(L_2)=0.35,\ P(L_3)=0.40 and P(E∣L1)=0.05, P(E∣L2)=0.04, P(E∣L3)=0.02P(E|L_1)=0.05,\ P(E|L_2)=0.04,\ P(E|L_3)=0.02.

Step 1: Total probability of a defective bulb (law of total probability).

P(E)=P(L1)P(E∣L1)+P(L2)P(E∣L2)+P(L3)P(E∣L3)P(E) = P(L_1)P(E|L_1) + P(L_2)P(E|L_2) + P(L_3)P(E|L_3)

=0.25(0.05)+0.35(0.04)+0.40(0.02)=0.0125+0.014+0.008=0.0345= 0.25(0.05) + 0.35(0.04) + 0.40(0.02) = 0.0125 + 0.014 + 0.008 = 0.0345

Step 2: Apply Bayes' theorem to find P(L2∣E)P(L_2|E). …

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