Skip to content

Business Mathematics and Basic Statistics · Ch 11 — Introduction to Probability

Classical Definition of Probability

5

Classical Definition of Probability

When the sample space SS of a random experiment consists of a finite number of equally likely outcomes, the classical (mathematical) definition of probability of an event EE is:

P(E)=n(E)n(S)=number of outcomes favourable to Etotal number of possible outcomesP(E) = \frac{n(E)}{n(S)} = \frac{\text{number of outcomes favourable to } E}{\text{total number of possible outcomes}}

Basic properties that follow directly from this definition:

  • 0≤P(E)≤10 \le P(E) \le 1 for every event EE, since n(E)n(E) can range from 00 (no favourable outcome) up to n(S)n(S) (every outcome favourable).
  • P(S)=n(S)n(S)=1P(S) = \dfrac{n(S)}{n(S)} = 1 — the sure event has probability exactly 11.
  • P(∅)=0n(S)=0P(\emptyset) = \dfrac{0}{n(S)} = 0 — the impossible event has probability exactly 00.
  • P(not E)=1−P(E)P(\text{not } E) = 1 - P(E) — the probability of an event NOT happening (its complement) is 11 minus the probability of it happening, since the favourable outcomes for EE and for "not EE" together make up the whole of SS with no overlap.

Worked illustration: for a single fair die roll, the event E=E = "getting a number greater than 44" has favourable outcomes {5,6}\{5, 6\}, so n(E)=2n(E) = 2 against n(S)=6n(S) = 6, giving P(E)=26=13P(E) = \dfrac{2}{6} = \dfrac{1}{3}.

Note

The Formula ONLY Applies When Outcomes Are Equally Likely …

Definition 8Classical probability

P(E)=n(E)n(S)P(E) = \dfrac{n(E)}{n(S)}, the ratio of favourable outcomes to total outcomes, valid only when every outcome in SS is equally likely. Always sat …

Definition 9Complementary event

"Not EE", the event that EE does NOT occur. P(not E)=1−P(E)P(\text{not }E) = 1 - P(E), since the outcomes favourable to EE and to "not EE" together make up …