Q.On her vacations Veena visits four cities (A, B, C and D) in a random order. What is the probability that she visits
When arrangements are equally likely, probability equals the fraction of favorable orderings. (i) , (ii) , (iii) , (iv) , (v) .
The heart of this problem is symmetry in permutations. When Veena visits four cities in a random order, all orderings are equally likely. For any subset of cities, every relative ordering of that subset appears equally often across all permutations. This symmetry principle lets us count favorable outcomes without listing every arrangement.
The total number of ways to visit four cities is .
(i) Probability that A comes before B
Among all orderings of four cities, consider just the relative positions of A and B. By symmetry, in exactly half of all arrangements A appears before B, and in the other half B appears before A. The presence of C and D doesn't break this symmetry—they simply fill the remaining slots.
The probability is .
For any two objects in a random permutation, the probability that one specific object comes before the other is always .
(ii) Probability that A before B and B before C
Now we need the specific ordering A, then B, then C (with D anywhere). Among the three cities A, B, C, there are possible relative orderings:
- ABC, ACB, BAC, BCA, CAB, CBA
Only one of these six orderings satisfies "A before B before C": namely ABC.
Since all relative orderings of any three cities are equally likely, the probability is .
Alternatively, count directly: D can occupy any of the 4 positions. Once D's position is fixed, the remaining 3 positions must be filled by A, B, C in that specific order. There are ways to place D and way to arrange A, B, C in the required order, giving favorable outcomes out of total: .
The probability is .
(iii) Probability that A is first and B is last
We need A in position 1 and B in position 4. The middle two positions (2 and 3) can be filled by C and D in any order.
- Fix A in position 1: done.
- Fix B in position 4: done.
- Arrange C and D in positions 2 and 3: ways.
Favorable outcomes: .
The probability is .
(iv) Probability that A is either first or second
We split into two disjoint cases:
Case 1: A is first.
The remaining three cities B, C, D can be arranged in positions 2, 3, 4 in ways.
Case 2: A is second.
One of B, C, D occupies position 1 ( choices), and the remaining two cities fill positions 3 and 4 ( ways each). Total: ways.
Favorable outcomes: .
The probability is .
Alternatively, by symmetry each city is equally likely to occupy any given position. The probability A is in position 1 is , and the probability A is in position 2 is also . Since these events are disjoint, the total probability is .
(v) Probability that A is immediately before B
"A just before B" means A and B occupy consecutive positions with A first. The possible consecutive pairs of positions are:
- (1, 2), (2, 3), (3, 4)
That's 3 pairs of consecutive positions.
For each pair:
- Place A in the first position of the pair and B in the second.
- Arrange the remaining two cities (C and D) in the remaining two positions: ways.
Favorable outcomes: .
The probability is .
Don't confuse "A before B" (anywhere in the sequence) with "A just before B" (immediately adjacent). The former has probability , the latter .
The probabilities are: (i) , (ii) , (iii) , (iv) , (v) .
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