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NCERT Exemplar · Q12

Q.One urn contains two black balls (labelled B1B_1 and B2B_2) and one white ball. A second urn contains one black ball and two white balls (labelled W1W_1 and W2W_2). Suppose the following experiment is performed. One of the two urns is chosen at random. Next a ball is randomly chosen from the urn. Then a second ball is chosen at random from the same urn without replacing the first ball.

(a) Write the sample space showing all possible outcomes.
(b) What is the probability that two black balls are chosen?
(c) What is the probability that two balls of opposite colour are chosen?
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The sample space has 1212 equally likely outcomes; P(two black)=16P(\text{two black})=\dfrac{1}{6} and P(opposite colours)=23P(\text{opposite colours})=\dfrac{2}{3}.

Setting up

An urn is chosen with probability 12\tfrac12, then two balls are drawn in order without replacement. Each urn holds 33 balls, giving 3×2=63\times2=6 ordered draws per urn, so 1212 outcomes in all, each with probability 12⋅16=112\tfrac12\cdot\tfrac16=\tfrac{1}{12}.

(a) Sample space

Urn 1 {B1,B2,W}\{B_1,B_2,W\}:

(B1,B2), (B1,W), (B2,B1), (B2,W), (W,B1), (W,B2).(B_1,B_2),\ (B_1,W),\ (B_2,B_1),\ (B_2,W),\ (W,B_1),\ (W,B_2).

Urn 2 {B,W1,W2}\{B,W_1,W_2\}:

(B,W1), (B,W2), (W1,B), (W1,W2), (W2,B), (W2,W1).(B,W_1),\ (B,W_2),\ (W_1,B),\ (W_1,W_2),\ (W_2,B),\ (W_2,W_1).

Together these are the 1212 equally likely outcomes of SS.

(b) Two black balls

Only Urn 1 has two black balls. The favourable outcomes are (B1,B2)(B_1,B_2) and (B2,B1)(B_2,B_1) — that is 22 outcomes:

P(two black)=212=16.P(\text{two black})=\frac{2}{12}=\frac{1}{6}. …

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