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Miscellaneous Examples · Example 11

Q.If A, B, C are three events associated with a random experiment, prove that P(A∪B∪C)=P(A)+P(B)+P(C)−P(A∩B)−P(A∩C)−P(B∩C)+P(A∩B∩C)P(A \cup B \cup C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(A \cap B) - P(A \cap C) - P(B \cap C) + P(A \cap B \cap C).

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The probability of the union of three events is found by adding the individual probabilities, subtracting the probabilities of all pairwise intersections, and then adding back the probability of the triple intersection — this corrects for overcounting when events overlap.

We need to prove the inclusion-exclusion principle for three events. The core idea is simple: when we count outcomes in A∪B∪CA \cup B \cup C, we must avoid double-counting outcomes that belong to more than one event.

Think of it like this: if you add P(A)+P(B)+P(C)P(A) + P(B) + P(C), you've counted every outcome that lies in exactly one event once, but outcomes in two events get counted twice, and outcomes in all three events get counted three times. So we subtract the pairwise intersections to fix the double-counting — but then we've subtracted the triple intersection three times (once for each pair), when it was originally added three times. That leaves it counted zero times, so we must add it back once.

Let's prove it formally.

  1. Start with the union of A and (B ∪ C). We know the addition rule for two events:

P(X∪Y)=P(X)+P(Y)−P(X∩Y)P(X \cup Y) = P(X) + P(Y) - P(X \cap Y)

Let X=AX = A and Y=B∪CY = B \cup C. Then:

P(A∪B∪C)=P(A)+P(B∪C)−P(A∩(B∪C))P(A \cup B \cup C) = P(A) + P(B \cup C) - P(A \cap (B \cup C))

  1. Expand P(B∪C)P(B \cup C) using the same rule:

P(B∪C)=P(B)+P(C)−P(B∩C)P(B \cup C) = P(B) + P(C) - P(B \cap C)

  1. Handle the intersection A∩(B∪C)A \cap (B \cup C). By the distributive law of set operations:

A∩(B∪C)=(A∩B)∪(A∩C)A \cap (B \cup C) = (A \cap B) \cup (A \cap C)

So:

P(A∩(B∪C))=P((A∩B)∪(A∩C))P(A \cap (B \cup C)) = P((A \cap B) \cup (A \cap C))

  1. Apply the two-event rule again to (A∩B)(A \cap B) and (A∩C)(A \cap C):

P((A∩B)∪(A∩C))=P(A∩B)+P(A∩C)−P((A∩B)∩(A∩C))P((A \cap B) \cup (A \cap C)) = P(A \cap B) + P(A \cap C) - P((A \cap B) \cap (A \cap C))

  1. Simplify the triple intersection. Notice that:

(A∩B)∩(A∩C)=A∩B∩C(A \cap B) \cap (A \cap C) = A \cap B \cap C

So:

P((A∩B)∪(A∩C))=P(A∩B)+P(A∩C)−P(A∩B∩C)P((A \cap B) \cup (A \cap C)) = P(A \cap B) + P(A \cap C) - P(A \cap B \cap C)

  1. Now substitute everything back into the original expression. From step 1: …

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