Q.If P(A∣B)>P(A), then which of the following is correct : (A) P(B∣A)<P(B) (B) P(A∩B)<P(A)⋅P(B) (C) P(B∣A)>P(B) (D) P(B∣A)=P(B)
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🔒 Start your 14-day free trial to unlock the full solution →Concept understanding — Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
Roll a die and ask "what is the chance of an even number?" — that is 3/6. But suppose someone tells you the result is greater than 3. Now you are no longer looking at all six faces, only at {4,5,6}, and two of those (4 and 6) are even, so the probability becomes 2/3. That change — from the probability of A to the probability of A given that B has already occurred — is conditional probability.
The Idea: Shrink the Sample Space
Conditioning on B throws away every outcome where B is false and treats B as the new "whole world." You measure A only against what is still possible.
Think of filtering a table of data: unconditional probability uses every row; conditional probability keeps only the rows where the condition is true.
The Definition
For events A and B with P(B)>0,
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B).
We divide by P(B) to rescale so that B itself has probability 1; the surviving part of A is the overlap A∩B. Checking the die: P(A∩B)=P({4,6})=62 and P(B)=63, so P(A∣B)=3/62/6=32, matching the intuition.
Rearranging gives the multiplication rule P(A∩B)=P(A∣B)P(B), which is usually the easier way to compute a joint probability when a problem says "given that."
Two Cautions
- P(A∣B) and P(B∣A) are generally not equal; swapping them is the classic mistake. They are linked by Bayes' theorem, P(A∣B)=P(B)P(B∣A)P(A). …
Concept: Conditional Probability — the condition P(A∣B)>P(A) means that knowing B has occurred makes A more likely. This implies a positive association between A and B.
Step 1: Write the definition of conditional probability:
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B)>P(A)
Step 2: Multiply both sides by P(B):
P(A∩B)>P(A)⋅P(B)
This eliminates option (B) immediately. …
The condition P(A∣B)>P(A) means A is more likely when B occurs — this implies B is also more likely when A occurs, so P(B∣A)>P(B). The correct option is (C).
Why this works: the logic of conditional probability
Conditional probability tells us how the chance of one event changes when we know another event has happened. The statement P(A∣B)>P(A) says: knowing B makes A more probable. That’s a statement about a positive association between A and B.
The key insight: if A is more likely in the presence of B, then B must also be more likely in the presence of A. This symmetry is built into the definition of conditional probability — it’s not an assumption, it’s a mathematical consequence.
Let’s see why.
Step-by-step reasoning
1. Write the given condition in terms of the intersection.
By definition:
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B)
The condition P(A∣B)>P(A) becomes:
P(B)P(A∩B)>P(A)
2. Multiply both sides by P(B) (which is positive).
P(A∩B)>P(A)⋅P(B)
This is a clean, useful form: the joint probability exceeds the product of the marginals. That’s the mathematical signature of a positive association.
A common mistake is to reverse the inequality when multiplying — but P(B)>0 always (since conditional probability is defined only when P(B)>0), so the direction stays the same.
3. Now examine P(B∣A).
By definition:
P(B∣A)=P(A)P(A∩B)
We already know P(A∩B)>P(A)⋅P(B). Substitute this into the numerator:
P(B∣A)>P(A)P(A)⋅P(B) …
Method: Turning a conditional-probability inequality into the joint form
Use this whenever a question states an inequality between a conditional probability and a plain probability (e.g. P(A∣B)>P(A)) and asks what else must be true.
Steps
Step 1: Replace every conditional probability by its definition.
Never reason about P(A∣B) directly — rewrite it using
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B).
This converts the statement into one about the joint probability P(A∩B).
Step 2: Clear the denominator to reach the symmetric form.
Because a conditional probability is only defined when P(B)>0, you may multiply through by P(B) without flipping the inequality. The given inequality becomes a statement comparing P(A∩B) with the product P(A)P(B). This form is symmetric in A and B. …
Common Mistakes
Mistake 1: Assuming P(A∣B) and P(B∣A) move in opposite directions.
Why it's wrong: they are linked symmetrically through P(A∩B), so if B makes A more likely, then A makes B more likely too. Correct approach: reduce both conditionals to the joint form P(A∩B) vs P(A)P(B) and you will see they agree, giving option (C), not (A).
Mistake 2: Reading P(A∣B)>P(A) as P(A∩B)<P(A)P(B). …
Showing the 12 most recent of 69 on this concept.
- AP EAPCET 2022Set eng-2022-07-05-FN1 markMCQQ.If A and B are two events such that P(B)=0 and P(B)=1, then P(Aˉ∣Bˉ) is (A) 1−P(A∣B) (B) 1−P(Aˉ∣B) (C) P(Bˉ)1−P(A∪B) (D) P(Bˉ)P(Aˉ)
›Reveal solutionSolution
Directly apply the definition of conditional probability together with De Morgan's law; the answer is P(Bˉ)1−P(A∪B).
Concept and Intuition
Conditional probability is defined as P(X∣Y)=P(Y)P(X∩Y). Here X=Aˉ, Y=Bˉ. By De Morgan's law, Aˉ∩Bˉ=A∪B, so its probability is 1−P(A∪B).
Step-by-Step Solution
- P(Aˉ∣Bˉ)=P(Bˉ)P(Aˉ∩Bˉ).
- Aˉ∩Bˉ=A∪B (De Morgan).
- So P(Aˉ∩Bˉ)=1−P(A∪B). …
- AP EAPCET 2023Set eng-2023-05-18-AN1 markMCQQ.If A,B are any two events of a random experiment and P(B)=1, then P(A∣Bc)= (A) 1−P(B)P(A)+P(A∩B) (B) 1−P(B)P(A)−P(A∩B) (C) 1+P(B)P(A)+P(A∩B) (D) 1+P(B)P(A)
›Reveal solutionSolution
Direct application of the conditional-probability definition to the complement event gives P(A∣Bc)=1−P(B)P(A)−P(A∩B).
Concept and Intuition
A∩Bc is exactly the part of A that does not overlap with B, so its probability is P(A) minus the overlapping piece P(A∩B). Dividing by P(Bc)=1−P(B) (valid since P(B)=1) gives the conditional probability.
Step-by-Step Solution
- P(A∣Bc)=P(Bc)P(A∩Bc) by definition (needs P(Bc)=0, i.e. P(B)=1, as given).
- A=(A∩B)∪(A∩Bc), a disjoint union, so P(A)=P(A∩B)+P(A∩Bc)⇒P(A∩Bc)=P(A)−P(A∩B).
- P(Bc)=1−P(B). …
- AP EAPCET 2024Set eng-2024-05-20-FN1 markMCQQ.P(A∣A∩B)+P(B∣A∩B)= (A) 1 (B) P(A∪B) (C) P(A∩B) (D) 2
›Reveal solutionSolution
Both conditional probabilities equal 1 because A∩B is a subset of both A and B, so their sum is 2.
Concept and Intuition
Conditioning an event on its own subset (or superset relationship) often collapses to a probability of exactly 1: if E⊆F, then P(F∣E)=1, since knowing E occurred guarantees F occurred too.
Step-by-Step Solution
- P(A∣A∩B)=P(A∩B)P(A∩(A∩B)).
- Since A∩(A∩B)=A∩B (intersecting with A again changes nothing, as A∩B⊆A), this is P(A∩B)P(A∩B)=1.
- Similarly, P(B∣A∩B)=P(A∩B)P(B∩(A∩B))=P(A∩B)P(A∩B)=1.
- Sum =1+1=2. …
- AP EAPCET 2021Set eng-2021-08-23-FN1 markMCQQ.Let A and B be two events with P(A)=71, P(A/B)=52 and P(B)=72. Then the value P(B/A) is (A) 51 (B) 495 (C) 54 (D) 53
›Reveal solutionSolution
Chain the conditional-probability definition twice: first get P(A∩B) from P(A/B), then get P(B/A) from that.
Concept and Intuition
Conditional probability is defined as P(E/F)=P(F)P(E∩F). Given one conditional probability, we can back out the joint probability P(A∩B), and then use it (with the definition again, but conditioning the other way) to find the other conditional probability.
Step-by-Step Solution
- P(A/B)=P(B)P(A∩B)⇒P(A∩B)=P(A/B)⋅P(B)=52×72=354.
- Now use P(B/A)=P(A)P(A∩B)=1/74/35. …
- AP EAPCET 2023Set eng-2023-05-16-AN1 markMCQQ.Two dice are rolled. If A denote the event that the same number shows on each die and B denote the event that the sum of the numbers on both dice is greater than 7, then P(A∣B) and P(B∣A) respectively are (A) 52,41 (B) 51,21 (C) 51,41 (D) 21,53
›Reveal solutionSolution
Counting the 36 equally likely dice outcomes directly gives P(A∣B)=51 and P(B∣A)=21.
Concept and Intuition
With two fair dice there are 36 equally likely outcomes, so every probability here reduces to simple counting: enumerate the outcomes in A, in B, and in A∩B, then apply the conditional probability formula P(X∣Y)=P(Y)P(X∩Y) directly as a ratio of counts.
Step-by-Step Solution
- A = "same number on each die": outcomes (1,1),(2,2),(3,3),(4,4),(5,5),(6,6) — 6 outcomes, so P(A)=366.
- B = "sum >7", i.e. sum ∈{8,9,10,11,12}. Counting pairs per sum: sum 8 has 5 pairs, 9 has 4, 10 has 3, 11 has 2, 12 has 1 — total 5+4+3+2+1=15 outcomes, so P(B)=3615.
- A∩B: doubles with sum >7 — check each double: (4,4) sum 8 ✓, (5,5) sum 10 ✓, (6,6) sum 12 ✓; (1,1),(2,2),(3,3) have sums 2,4,6, all ≤7 — excluded. So A∩B has 3 outcomes, P(A∩B)=363. …
- AP EAPCET 2024Set eng-2024-05-23-FN1 markMCQQ.It is given that in a random experiment events A and B are such that P(A)=41, P(A∣B)=21 and P(B∣A)=32 then P(B)= (A) 31 (B) 32 (C) 21 (D) 61
›Reveal solutionSolution
Using P(B∣A) to find P(A∩B), then dividing by P(A∣B), gives P(B)=31.
Concept and Intuition
The conditional probability definitions P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B) and P(B∣A)=P(A)P(A∩B) share the common quantity P(A∩B) — computing it from one equation lets us solve the other for the unknown probability.
Step-by-Step Solution
- From P(B∣A)=P(A)P(A∩B)=32, and P(A)=41: P(A∩B)=32×41=61.
- From P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B)=21: P(B)=P(A∣B)P(A∩B)=1/21/6=31.
Common Mistakes …
- AP EAPCET 2021Set eng-2021-08-25-AN1 markMCQQ.Given P(A)=0.5,P(B)=0.4,P(A∩B)=0.3 then P(A′/B′) is equal to (A) 31 (B) 21 (C) 32 (D) 43
›Reveal solutionSolution
Using De Morgan's law A′∩B′=(A∪B)′ and the conditional probability formula gives P(A′∣B′)=32.
Concept and Intuition
P(A′∣B′) asks: given we're outside B, what's the chance we're also outside A? The key trick is that A′∩B′=(A∪B)′ (De Morgan), which is easy to compute from P(A∪B).
Step-by-Step Solution
- P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)=0.5+0.4−0.3=0.6.
- P(A′∩B′)=P((A∪B)′)=1−P(A∪B)=1−0.6=0.4.
- P(B′)=1−P(B)=1−0.4=0.6. …
- AP EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-26-FN1 markMCQQ.If two events A and B are such that P(Aˉ)=0.3, P(B)=0.4 and P(A∩Bˉ)=0.5, then P(B/(A∪Bˉ))= (A) 0.25 (B) 0.6 (C) 0.45 (D) 0.8
›Reveal solutionSolution
This tests careful set manipulation of conditional probability with a compound conditioning event A∪Bˉ. Answer: 0.25.
Concept and Intuition
Conditional probability P(B∣E)=P(E)P(B∩E) works exactly the same way when E is a compound event like A∪Bˉ — we just need to correctly compute P(E) and P(B∩E) using set algebra (distributing intersection over union, and using the fact that B and Bˉ are disjoint).
Step-by-Step Solution
- From P(Aˉ)=0.3, get P(A)=1−0.3=0.7.
- P(A∩Bˉ)=0.5 is given directly, so P(A∩B)=P(A)−P(A∩Bˉ)=0.7−0.5=0.2.
- Compute P(A∪Bˉ) using inclusion-exclusion: P(A∪Bˉ)=P(A)+P(Bˉ)−P(A∩Bˉ). Here P(Bˉ)=1−0.4=0.6, so P(A∪Bˉ)=0.7+0.6−0.5=0.8. …
- AP EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-15-AN1 markMCQQ.In a sample space, E is an event associated with the events A and B. If P(A)P(E∣A)=l and P(B)P(E∣B)=m then, P(B∣E)= (A) l+mm always (B) l+ml only when P(A)+P(B)=1 (C) l+mm only when P(A)+P(B)=1 (D) l+ml always
›Reveal solutionSolution
This tests when the "total probability" decomposition P(E)=P(A∩E)+P(B∩E) is legitimate — only when A,B partition the sample space. Answer: l+mm, and only under that condition.
Concept and Intuition
Bayes' rule always gives P(B∣E)=P(B∩E)/P(E). The numerator is handed to us as m. The tricky part is the denominator: P(E) can only be written as P(A∩E)+P(B∩E)=l+m if every outcome of E passes through either A or B and not both — that is exactly the statement that {A,B} partitions the sample space, equivalent to A∩B=∅ and P(A)+P(B)=1.
Step-by-Step Solution
- From the given data, P(A∩E)=l and P(B∩E)=m.
- By definition, P(B∣E)=P(E)P(B∩E)=P(E)m.
- If (and only if) A,B partition the sample space, E=(E∩A)∪(E∩B) with no overlap, so P(E)=l+m.
- Substituting, P(B∣E)=l+mm — but this substitution is valid only under the partition condition P(A)+P(B)=1. …
- AP EAPCET 2024Set eng-2024-05-20-FN1 markMCQQ.A, B, C are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events of a random experiment and E is an event that occurs in conjunction with one of the events A, B, C. The conditional Probabilities of E given the happening of A, B, C are respectively 0.6, 0.3 and 0.1. If P(A)=0.30 and P(B)=0.50, then P(C∣E)= (A) 352 (B) 3515 (C) 3518 (D) 3517
›Reveal solutionSolution
This is a direct Bayes' theorem application over three mutually exclusive, exhaustive causes; P(C∣E)=2/35.
Concept and Intuition
When an event E can occur alongside any of several mutually exclusive, exhaustive causes A,B,C, Bayes' theorem lets us find the probability of a particular cause given that E has occurred, by weighing each cause's prior probability by how likely E is under it, then normalizing.
Step-by-Step Solution
- Since A,B,C are mutually exclusive and exhaustive, P(C)=1−P(A)−P(B)=1−0.30−0.50=0.20.
- Total probability of E: P(E)=P(E∣A)P(A)+P(E∣B)P(B)+P(E∣C)P(C) =0.6(0.30)+0.3(0.50)+0.1(0.20)=0.18+0.15+0.02=0.35 …
- AP EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-23-AN1 markMCQQ.A die is thrown twice. Let A be the event of getting a prime number when the die is thrown first time and B be the event of getting an even number when the die is thrown second time. Then P(A/Bˉ)= (A) 21 (B) 32 (C) 51 (D) 53
›Reveal solutionSolution
Since A and B (hence Bˉ) come from two independent throws of the die, conditioning on Bˉ does not change P(A); the answer is 1/2.
Concept and Intuition
When two events are determined by physically independent trials (first throw vs second throw of a die), any conditional probability between them collapses to the unconditional probability — conditioning on an independent event changes nothing.
Step-by-Step Solution
- A: prime number on the first throw, i.e. outcome in {2,3,5}, so P(A)=63=21.
- B: even number on the second throw, i.e. outcome in {2,4,6}, so P(B)=21, and P(Bˉ)=21 (odd on the second throw). …
- AP EAPCET 2022Set eng-2022-07-07-FN1 markMCQQ.In a toy factory, the machines A, B and C are used to manufacture 30%, 40% and 30% of the output, respectively. The probabilities of toys made by machines A, B, and C to be defective are respectively 2%, 3% and 1%. A toy is taken from the factory and is found to be defective. The probability that it was manufactured by the machine B is (A) 4/5 (B) 2/9 (C) 3/4 (D) 4/7
›Reveal solutionSolution
This tests Bayes' theorem for finding the probability of a specific cause given an observed
effect (a defective toy); the answer is 4/7.
Concept and Intuition
When an outcome (a defective toy) could have come from several sources, each with its own prior
probability and its own conditional probability of producing that outcome, Bayes' theorem lets us
"invert" the conditioning: given that the outcome occurred, what's the probability it came from a
particular source? The key is to first find the total probability of the outcome by summing over
all sources (the law of total probability), then take the one source's contribution as a fraction of
that total.
Step-by-Step Solution
- Prior probabilities: P(A)=0.3, P(B)=0.4, P(C)=0.3.
- Conditional defect rates: P(D∣A)=0.02, P(D∣B)=0.03, P(D∣C)=0.01.
- Total probability of a defective toy (law of total probability):
P(D)=P(A)P(D∣A)+P(B)P(D∣B)+P(C)P(D∣C)=0.3(0.02)+0.4(0.03)+0.3(0.01)
=0.006+0.012+0.003=0.021.
- By Bayes' theorem: …
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