Emergence of a new consensus

The period after 1989 is often described as the decline of the Congress and the rise of the BJP, but the real story is more complex. To understand the nature of political competition in this era, you have to compare the electoral performances of these two parties directly.

From 1989 onward, the BJP and Congress were locked in a tough contest. If you compare their fortunes with the 1984 elections (when the Congress won a landslide after Indira Gandhi’s assassination), the difference is stark. Since 1989, the votes polled by the two parties together have usually added up to more than fifty per cent — except in 1996, 2004, and 2009. This means that for most of this period, the two main parties together commanded a majority of the popular vote, even though neither could win a majority of seats on its own.

The political competition of the 1990s was divided between two broad coalitions: one led by the BJP and the other led by the Congress. Many parties that exist today belong either to the “Congress family” of parties or the “Janata family” of parties — but some are outside both. Can you list the parties that are not part of either of these two coalitions?

Lok Sabha Elections (2004–2019)

In 2004, the Congress too entered into coalitions in a big way. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was defeated, and a new coalition government led by the Congress — the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) — came to power. This government received support from the Left Front parties. The 2004 elections also saw a partial revival of the Congress: it increased its seats for the first time since 1991. However, there was a negligible difference between the votes polled by the Congress and its allies and the BJP and its allies.

The Congress-led UPA government completed its full term, even though the Left parties withdrew support in July 2008 over the Indo-US nuclear deal.

In the 2009 elections for the 15th Lok Sabha, the Indian National Congress increased its seats from 145 in 2004 to 206. Dr. Manmohan Singh was sworn in as Prime Minister for a second term, again heading a UPA coalition government.

In September 2013, the BJP declared Narendra Modi (then Chief Minister of Gujarat) as its Prime Ministerial candidate. In the 2014 elections for the 16th Lok Sabha, the BJP under Modi won a clear majority — 282 seats on its own. This was the first time in thirty years that a single party had won a majority on its own. Despite this, the BJP chose to form the NDA government with its coalition partners. The year 2014 was a watershed moment in Indian politics. The Modi-led NDA government rapidly took decisions in the social sector, foreign policy, and economic policy.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP again emerged victorious, winning 303 seats on its own. Even when the BJP gets a full majority, the recognition of coalition politics remains relevant. The party system has now changed almost dramatically from what it was till the 1970s.

Growing Consensus

In the midst of severe competition and many conflicts, a broad agreement has emerged among most parties on four key elements:

1. Agreement on new economic policies: While many groups oppose the new economic policies, most political parties support them. Most parties believe these policies will lead the country to prosperity and a status of economic power in the world.

2. Acceptance of the political and social claims of the backward castes: Political parties have recognised that the social and political claims of the backward castes need to be accepted. As a result, all political parties now support reservation of seats for the “backward classes” in education and employment. Parties are also willing to ensure that the OBCs get an adequate share of power.

3. Acceptance of the role of state-level parties in governance: The distinction between state-level and national-level parties is fast becoming less important. State-level parties have shared power at the national level and played a central role in the country’s politics over the last twenty years or so.

4. Emphasis on pragmatic considerations rather than ideological positions: Coalition politics has shifted the focus of political parties from ideological differences to power-sharing arrangements. For example, most parties in the NDA did not agree with the BJP’s “Hindutva” ideology, yet they came together to form a government and remained in power for a full term. …