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Statistics · Ch 5 — Probability

Conditional Probability and the Multiplication Theorem

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Conditional Probability and the Multiplication Theorem

Conditional probability asks: given that event BB has already occurred, what is the probability that AA also occurs? It is written P(A∣B)P(A|B) ('probability of AA given BB') and defined as:

P(A∣B)=P(A∩B)P(B),P(B)>0P(A|B)=\dfrac{P(A\cap B)}{P(B)}, \qquad P(B)>0

Symmetrically,

P(B∣A)=P(A∩B)P(A),P(A)>0P(B|A)=\dfrac{P(A\cap B)}{P(A)}, \qquad P(A)>0

Rearranging either definition gives the Multiplication Theorem of Probability, which is how P(A∩B)P(A\cap B) is actually computed whenever the relevant conditional probability is easier to state than the joint probability directly:

P(A∩B)=P(A)×P(B∣A)=P(B)×P(A∣B)P(A\cap B)=P(A)\times P(B|A)=P(B)\times P(A|B) …

Definition 1Conditional Probability and Multiplication Theorem

P(A∣B)=P(A∩B)P(B)P(A|B)=\dfrac{P(A\cap B)}{P(B)}; Multiplication Theorem: $P(A\cap B)=P(A)\times P(B|A)=P( …