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MCQs · Q9

Q.Which component of a time series best explains the regular rise in demand for umbrellas every monsoon?

(a) Secular Trend
(b) Seasonal Variation
(c) Cyclical Variation
(d) Irregular Variation
Gujarat GsebTextbookSubjectiveImportance★★★★★
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The rise in umbrella demand every monsoon is a fluctuation that (i) repeats within a period of one year, and (ii) is caused directly by the calendar/climate (the monsoon season) — this is exactly the definition of Seasonal Variation (S).

Checking the other options:

  • (a) Secular Trend is ruled out because trend describes a smooth long-term direction over many years, not a fluctuation that repeats every year.
  • (c) Cyclical Variation is ruled out because a cyclical swing lasts more than a year and is tied to the business cycle, not to the calendar. …

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