Q.A box of oranges is inspected by examining three randomly selected oranges drawn without replacement. If all the three oranges are good, the box is approved for sale, otherwise, it is rejected. Find the probability that a box containing 15 oranges out of which 12 are good and 3 are bad ones will be approved for sale.
Concept understanding — Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
Roll a die and ask "what is the chance of an even number?" — that is 3/6. But suppose someone tells you the result is greater than 3. Now you are no longer looking at all six faces, only at {4,5,6}, and two of those (4 and 6) are even, so the probability becomes 2/3. That change — from the probability of A to the probability of A given that B has already occurred — is conditional probability.
The Idea: Shrink the Sample Space
Conditioning on B throws away every outcome where B is false and treats B as the new "whole world." You measure A only against what is still possible.
Think of filtering a table of data: unconditional probability uses every row; conditional probability keeps only the rows where the condition is true.
The Definition
For events A and B with P(B)>0,
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B).
We divide by P(B) to rescale so that B itself has probability 1; the surviving part of A is the overlap A∩B. Checking the die: P(A∩B)=P({4,6})=62 and P(B)=63, so P(A∣B)=3/62/6=32, matching the intuition.
Rearranging gives the multiplication rule P(A∩B)=P(A∣B)P(B), which is usually the easier way to compute a joint probability when a problem says "given that."
Two Cautions
- P(A∣B) and P(B∣A) are generally not equal; swapping them is the classic mistake. They are linked by Bayes' theorem, P(A∣B)=P(B)P(B∣A)P(A).
- If P(A∣B)=P(A), then knowing B tells you nothing about A — the events are independent. That is a special case, not the general rule.
Conditional probability is the foundation of the multiplication theorem, independence, and Bayes' theorem — every "given that" question in this chapter rests on it.
Conditional Probability opens the CBSE Class 12 Probability chapter and is foundational for everything that follows in that unit, including Bayes' theorem and the multiplication rule — making "conditional probability formula class 12 with examples" one of the most searched topics in Class 12 Mathematics. It is equally important for JEE Main and CUET, where conditional probability questions are set almost every year.
The key idea is Hypergeometric Probability — drawing without replacement from a finite population of two types.
We need the probability that all 3 drawn oranges are good.
Step 1: Total ways to choose 3 oranges from 15:
(315)
Step 2: Favorable ways — choose 3 good oranges from the 12 good ones:
(312)
Step 3: Probability = favorable / total:
P=(315)(312)=455220=9144
The probability the box is approved is 9144.
The problem is a classic hypergeometric probability scenario: we need the chance that all three oranges drawn without replacement from a box of 15 (12 good, 3 bad) are good. The answer is 9144.
Why Hypergeometric Probability?
When you draw items without replacement from a finite population that has two distinct types (here: good vs. bad oranges), the probability of getting a certain number of "successes" (good oranges) follows the hypergeometric distribution.
The key difference from the binomial distribution: because we don't replace the oranges, the probability of picking a good orange changes after each draw. The hypergeometric formula handles this by counting combinations directly.
P(exactly k successes)=(ntotal population)(ktotal successes)⋅(n−ktotal failures)
Here, "success" = good orange, "failure" = bad orange, n = number drawn.
Step-by-step solution
1. Identify the numbers
- Total oranges: N=15
- Good oranges (successes in population): K=12
- Bad oranges (failures): N−K=3
- Oranges drawn: n=3
- We need all 3 drawn to be good, so k=3 successes.
2. Apply the hypergeometric formula
We want:
P(3 good)=(315)(312)⋅(03)
3. Compute each combination
- (312)=3×2×112×11×10=220
- (03)=1 (there's exactly one way to choose zero bad oranges)
- (315)=3×2×115×14×13=455
4. Put it together
P=455220×1=455220
5. Simplify the fraction
Divide numerator and denominator by 5:
455÷5220÷5=9144
A common mistake is to treat this as a binomial problem with constant probability 1512=0.8 and compute (0.8)3=0.512. That would give 12564, which is wrong because the probability changes after each draw without replacement. Always check: if sampling is without replacement from a small population, use hypergeometric.
You can also think sequentially:
- First draw: 12/15 chance good
- Second draw (given first was good): 11/14
- Third draw (given first two good): 10/13 Multiply: 1512×1411×1310=27301320=9144 — same result, and often faster for small numbers.
The probability that the box is approved for sale is 9144.
Method: Probability That Every Item Drawn Without Replacement Is of One Type
Use this whenever a sample is drawn without replacement from a finite group of two kinds and you need the chance that all drawn items are the "good" kind.
Steps
Step 1: Set up the dependent chain
Drawing without replacement makes the draws dependent, so use the multiplication theorem, updating the counts each time:
P(all good)=Ng⋅N−1g−1⋅N−2g−2⋯
where g is the number of good items and N the total, each reduced by one per draw.
Step 2: Or count equally likely selections
Equivalently, since all selections are equally likely, take favourable over total using combinations:
P=(kN)(kg).
Step 3: Simplify and sanity-check
Reduce the resulting fraction. Note this is not a binomial/constant-probability situation — because there is no replacement the per-draw probability changes, so never raise a single probability to a power here.
Common Mistakes
Mistake 1: Using a binomial (with-replacement) probability.
Students take a constant p=1512 and compute (1512)3=12564. Why it's wrong: the oranges are drawn without replacement, so the fraction of good ones changes after each pick. Correct approach: 1512×1411×1310=9144, or (315)(312).
Mistake 2: Not reducing the counts after each draw.
Writing 1512×1412×1312 keeps 12 good oranges every time. Why it's wrong: each good orange removed drops both the good count and the total by one. Correct approach: 12/15, 11/14, 10/13.
Showing the 12 most recent of 45 on this concept.
- COMEDK 2026Set 2026-A1 markMCQQ.Vishnu has two jars of marbles, Jar A and Jar B. Jar A contains 3 yellow marbles and 2 green marbles. Jar B contains 4 yellow marbles and 3 green marbles. Vishnu flips a fair coin. If it lands heads, he picks two marbles at random without replacement from Jar A. If it lands tails, he picks two marbles at random with replacement from Jar B. Given that Vishnu picked one yellow and one green marble, what is the probability that they came from Jar B? (A) 4121 (B) 8949 (C) 8940 (D) 4120
›Reveal solutionSolution
P(E∣A)=53 (without replacement), P(E∣B)=4924 (with replacement); Bayes gives P(B∣E)=8940 — option (C).
Likelihoods of drawing one yellow and one green (E).
Jar A (3 yellow, 2 green; two draws without replacement):
P(E∣A)=(25)(13)(12)=106=53.
Jar B (4 yellow, 3 green; two draws with replacement):
P(E∣B)=2⋅74⋅73=4924.
Bayes' theorem with P(A)=P(B)=21 (the 21 cancels):
P(B∣E)=P(E∣A)+P(E∣B)P(E∣B)=53+49244924.
Combine the denominator over 245:
53+4924=245147+120=245267.
P(B∣E)=4924⋅267245=26724⋅5=267120=8940.
✓Final answerP(B∣E)=8940, which is option (C).
- COMEDK 2026Set 2026-M1 markMCQQ.Samhita faces a three-headed dragon. She wins a "Tactical medal" if she manages to defeat exactly one of the three heads. The battle proceeds head-by-head under the following conditions: The probability of defeating the first head is 31. After a win: if she defeats a head, the probability of defeating the next head is 32. After a loss: if she fails to defeat a head, the probability of defeating the next head is 41. What is the probability that Samhita earns the "Tactical medal"? (A) 7223 (B) 365 (C) 7217 (D) 7219
›Reveal solutionSolution
Summing the three disjoint "exactly one win" paths gives 121+181+81=7219 — option (D).
Set up the conditional probabilities. Let Wi mean "defeats head i" and Li mean "fails":
- P(W1)=31, so P(L1)=32.
- After a win: next-head win probability =32, so next-head loss probability =31.
- After a loss: next-head win probability =41, so next-head loss probability =43.
Earning the medal means exactly one of the three heads is defeated. The three disjoint sequences are W1L2L3, L1W2L3, and L1L2W3.
Path 1 — W1L2L3 (win, then loss after a win, then loss after a loss):
P=31⋅31⋅43=363=121
Path 2 — L1W2L3 (loss, then win after a loss, then loss after a win):
P=32⋅41⋅31=362=181
Path 3 — L1L2W3 (loss, then loss after a loss, then win after a loss):
P=32⋅43⋅41=486=81
Total (common denominator 72):
121+181+81=726+724+729=7219
✓Final answerP(Tactical medal)=7219 — option (D).
- COMEDK 2026Set 2026-M1 markMCQQ.A teacher has two jars of candy on her desk: Jar 1: Contains 3 Strawberry candies and 2 Orange candies. Jar 2: Contains 1 Strawberry candy and 4 Orange candies. The teacher randomly picks two candies from Jar 1 and drops them into Jar 2. Then, a student reaches into Jar 2 and picks two candies. What is the probability that the student picks two Strawberry candies? (A) 356 (B) 214 (C) 703 (D) 141
›Reveal solutionSolution
Condition on how many strawberries move from Jar 1 to Jar 2, then compute the chance of drawing two strawberries from the now 7-candy Jar 2. Total =141.
Setup. Jar 1 has 3 Strawberry (S) and 2 Orange (O). Two candies are moved into Jar 2, which started with 1 S and 4 O. After the transfer Jar 2 holds 7 candies. Let k = number of strawberries transferred.
Transfer probabilities (choosing 2 of 5 from Jar 1, (25)=10):
P(k=2)=10(23)=103,P(k=1)=10(13)(12)=106,P(k=0)=10(22)=101.
Draw two S from Jar 2 (which now has 1+k strawberries out of 7, (27)=21):
- k=2: Jar 2 has 3 S ⇒21(23)=213=71.
- k=1: Jar 2 has 2 S ⇒21(22)=211.
- k=0: Jar 2 has 1 S ⇒21(21)=0.
Total probability.
P=103⋅71+106⋅211+101⋅0=703+351=703+702=705=141.
✓Final answerThe probability is 141 — option (D).
- COMEDK 2026Set 2026-M1 markMCQQ.Advika chooses one of three scarves every morning: Red, Blue, or Green. The probability she chooses Red is 20%. The probability she chooses Blue is twice the probability of choosing Red. On the remaining days she wears a Green scarf. Once a scarf is chosen, she decides whether to wear a Hat (H) and Sunglasses (S). These choices are independent of each other but depend on the scarf colour: Scarf colour Red Blue Green P(H)0.50.40.1P(S)0.80.50.5 Advika is spotted outdoors wearing both a Hat and Sunglasses. What is the probability that she is wearing the Red scarf? (A) 31313 (B) 218 (C) 94 (D) 138
›Reveal solutionSolution
Bayes' theorem on scarf colour given that both a hat and sunglasses are worn. Priors P(R)=0.2, P(B)=0.4, P(G)=0.4; likelihoods P(H∩S∣colour)=P(H)P(S). The posterior P(R∣H∩S)=94 — option (C).
Concept. Hat and sunglasses are independent given the scarf, so P(H∩S∣colour)=P(H∣colour)⋅P(S∣colour). Bayes' theorem then reverses the conditioning to give the probability of the scarf colour from the observed accessories.
Step 1 — Priors.
P(R)=20%=0.2,P(B)=2P(R)=0.4,P(G)=1−0.2−0.4=0.4.
Step 2 — Likelihood of wearing both accessories for each colour.
P(H∩S∣R)=0.5×0.8=0.40,
P(H∩S∣B)=0.4×0.5=0.20,
P(H∩S∣G)=0.1×0.5=0.05.
Step 3 — Total probability of both accessories (denominator).
P(H∩S)=(0.2)(0.40)+(0.4)(0.20)+(0.4)(0.05)=0.08+0.08+0.02=0.18.
Step 4 — Posterior for Red.
P(R∣H∩S)=P(H∩S)P(R)P(H∩S∣R)=0.180.08=188=94.
✓Final answerP(Red∣H∩S)=94 — option (C).
ANSWER: C
- KCET 2026Set UNKNOWN1 markMCQQ.Recent studies suggest that 12% of the world population is left handed. Depending on parents hand usage, the chances of having left handed children are as follows: A: Both parents are left handed, chances of having left handed children = 24% B: Both parents are right handed, chances of having left handed children = 9% C: Father left handed and mother right handed, chances of having left handed children = 17% D: Father right handed and mother left handed, chances of having left handed children = 22% Given P(A)=P(B)=P(C)=P(D)=1/4 and L denotes child is left handed. What is the probability that P(A∣L)? (A) 8017 (B) 7524 (C) 31 (D) 21
›Reveal solutionSolution
Use the law of total probability to find P(L), then apply Bayes' theorem to compute P(A∣L)=P(L)P(L∣A)P(A).
Step 1 — List the given conditional probabilities
With P(A)=P(B)=P(C)=P(D)=41, the conditional probabilities of a left-handed child are:
P(L∣A)=0.24,P(L∣B)=0.09,P(L∣C)=0.17,P(L∣D)=0.22.
Step 2 — Find the total probability of a left-handed child, P(L)
By the law of total probability:
P(L)=P(L∣A)P(A)+P(L∣B)P(B)+P(L∣C)P(C)+P(L∣D)P(D)
P(L)=41(0.24+0.09+0.17+0.22)=41(0.72)=0.18.
Step 3 — Apply Bayes' theorem for P(A∣L)
P(A∣L)=P(L)P(L∣A)P(A)=0.180.24×41=0.180.06=31.
✓Final answerThe correct option is (C) — 31.
- CA Foundation 2026Set jan-20261 markMCQQ.If in a class, 50% of the student study mathematics and science and 70% of the student study mathematics, then the probability of a student studying science given that he/she is already studying mathematics is (A) 73 (B) 76 (C) 74 (D) 75
›Reveal solutionSolution
Conditional probability P(S∣M)=P(M)P(M∩S).
Step 1 — identify the probabilities
50% study both maths and science, so P(M∩S)=0.5; 70% study maths, so P(M)=0.7.
Step 2 — apply the conditional-probability formula
P(S∣M)=P(M)P(M∩S)=0.70.5=75.
Watch outDivide by the given event's probability: since maths is given, the denominator is P(M)=0.7, not P(S) or the total. Dividing the other way (0.7/0.5) gives a value above 1, which is impossible for a probability.
Tip"Given that" tells you the denominator. Here it is "given studying mathematics," so put P(M) on the bottom: 0.5/0.7=5/7.
✓Final answer(D) 5/7
- CA Foundation 2026Set jan-20261 markMCQQ.If two dice are rolled, then the probability of getting a greater number on the first die than the one on the second, given that the sum should be equal to 7 is (A) 21 (B) 31 (C) 61 (D) 32
›Reveal solutionSolution
Conditional probability on a reduced sample space: P(A∣B)=n(B)n(A∩B).
Step 1 — list the outcomes with sum 7.
(1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),(5,2),(6,1)⇒n(B)=6.
Step 2 — count first die greater than second, among those.
(4,3),(5,2),(6,1) → 3 outcomes.
Step 3 — conditional probability.
P=63=21.
Watch outThe condition "sum = 7" shrinks the sample space to those 6 outcomes — divide by 6, not by the full 36. Using 3/36 gives 1/12, which isn't even an option.
TipNone of the sum-7 pairs are ties, so by symmetry "first > second" and "first < second" split the 6 outcomes evenly — the answer is simply half.
✓Final answer(A) 1/2
- KCET 2025Set A-11 markMCQQ.If A and B are two non-mutually exclusive events such that P(A∣B)=P(B∣A), then (A) A⊂B but A=B (B) A=B (C) A∩B=ϕ (D) P(A)=P(B)
›Reveal solutionSolution
Write both conditional probabilities with the same numerator P(A∩B), cancel it (legal because the events are not mutually exclusive), and the denominators must be equal.
Step 1 — Definition of conditional probability.
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B),P(B∣A)=P(A)P(B∩A).
Note A∩B=B∩A, so the two fractions share the same numerator.
Step 2 — Impose the given condition.
P(B)P(A∩B)=P(A)P(A∩B).
Step 3 — Cancel — and see why we are allowed to.
The events are non-mutually-exclusive, i.e. A∩B=ϕ and P(A∩B)=0. (This hypothesis is exactly what makes the cancellation valid — if P(A∩B) were 0, both sides would be 0 for any P(A),P(B) and nothing would follow.) Dividing both sides by P(A∩B):
P(B)1=P(A)1⟹P(A)=P(B).
Step 4 — Why the other options are not forced.
Equality of probabilities does not force equality of sets. Example: toss a fair coin twice; let A = "first toss is head", B = "second toss is head". Then P(A)=P(B)=1/2, P(A∩B)=1/4=0, and indeed P(A∣B)=P(B∣A)=1/2 — yet A=B and neither is a subset of the other. So (A) and (B) are not implied. (C) contradicts the given non-mutual-exclusivity.
✓Final answerThe correct option is (D) — P(A)=P(B).
ANSWER: D
- KCET 2025Set A-11 markMCQQ.If A and B are two events such that A⊂B and P(B)=0, then which of the following is correct? (A) P(A∣B)=P(A)P(B) (B) P(A∣B)<P(A) (C) P(A∣B)≥P(A) (D) P(A)=P(B)
›Reveal solutionSolution
Use A⊂B⇒A∩B=A, then note that dividing P(A) by P(B)≤1 cannot make it smaller.
Step 1 — Simplify the intersection.
If every element of A lies in B, then A∩B=A. Hence
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B)=P(B)P(A).
Step 2 — Compare with P(A).
Every probability satisfies 0<P(B)≤1 (we are told P(B)=0). Therefore P(B)1≥1, and multiplying the non-negative number P(A) by a factor ≥1 gives
P(A∣B)=P(A)⋅P(B)1≥P(A).
Equality holds exactly when P(B)=1 (or when P(A)=0).
Intuition: conditioning on B throws away all outcomes outside B — but none of A lies outside B. So A's share of the shrunken sample space can only grow.
Step 3 — Eliminate.
- (A) P(A∣B)=P(B)/P(A) — wrong; the ratio is upside down (and can exceed 1).
- (B) P(A∣B)<P(A) — the inequality points the wrong way.
- (D) P(A)=P(B) — not implied; A can be a strictly smaller subset, e.g. rolling a die with A={2}, B={2,4,6}: P(A)=1/6, P(B)=1/2, and P(A∣B)=1/3≥1/6. ✓ consistent only with (C).
✓Final answerThe correct option is (C) — P(A∣B)≥P(A).
ANSWER: C
- KCET 2025Set A-11 markMCQQ.Meera visits only one of the two temples A and B in her locality. Probability that she visits temple A is 52. If she visits temple A, 31 is the probability that she meets her friend, whereas it is 72 if she visits temple B. Meera met her friend at one of the two temples. The probability that she met her at temple B is (A) 167 (B) 165 (C) 163 (D) 169
›Reveal solutionSolution
The friend has already been met (the effect); we want the probability of the cause (temple B) — that reversal of conditioning is exactly Bayes' theorem.
Step 1 — Name the events.
Let A = "Meera visits temple A", B = "Meera visits temple B", F = "she meets her friend".
She visits only one of the two temples, so A and B are mutually exclusive and exhaustive:
P(A)=52⟹P(B)=1−52=53.
Given: P(F∣A)=31, P(F∣B)=72.
Step 2 — Why Bayes.
We are told the outcome (F happened) and asked for the probability of a cause (B). Bayes' theorem inverts the conditioning:
P(B∣F)=P(A)P(F∣A)+P(B)P(F∣B)P(B)P(F∣B).
The denominator is P(F) by the law of total probability — the friend can be met on either branch.
Step 3 — Compute the two branch probabilities.
P(A∩F)=52×31=152,P(B∩F)=53×72=356.
Step 4 — Total probability of meeting the friend.
LCM of 15 and 35 is 105:
152=10514,356=10518,
P(F)=10514+10518=10532.
Step 5 — Apply Bayes.
P(B∣F)=32/10518/105=3218=169.
(Check: P(A∣F)=3214=167, and 169+167=1 ✓. Note option (A) 167 is the trap — it is the probability for temple A.)
✓Final answerThe correct option is (D) — 169.
ANSWER: D
- COMEDK 2025Set 2025-A1 markMCQQ.A bag contains (n+1) coins. It is known that one of these coins has a head on both sides, whereas the other coins are fair. One of these coins is selected at random and tossed. If the probability that the toss results in heads is 127, then the value of n is : (A) 5 (B) 3 (C) 2 (D) 4
›Reveal solutionSolution
The key idea is to treat the coin selection as a two‑case partition (two‑headed coin vs. fair coins) and apply the law of total probability. Solving the resulting equation gives n=5, so the correct option is (A).
Concept and intuition
We have a mixed bag: one trick coin that always lands heads, and n fair coins that land heads with probability 21. When we pick a coin at random and toss it, the overall chance of heads is a weighted average of the two cases. The weight for the trick coin is n+11 (since there are n+1 coins total), and for any fair coin it’s n+1n. The problem gives that overall probability as 127, so we set up an equation and solve for n.
Step‑by‑step solution
- Define the events Let T be the event that the two‑headed coin is selected, and F the event that a fair coin is selected. Since selection is random,
P(T)=n+11,P(F)=n+1n.
- Conditional probabilities for heads If the trick coin is chosen, heads is certain:
P(heads∣T)=1.
If a fair coin is chosen, the chance of heads is 21:
P(heads∣F)=21.
- Apply the law of total probability The overall probability of heads is
P(heads)=P(T)⋅P(heads∣T)+P(F)⋅P(heads∣F).
Substituting the values:
P(heads)=n+11⋅1+n+1n⋅21.
- Simplify the expression
P(heads)=n+11+2(n+1)n=2(n+1)2+n.
- Set equal to the given probability The problem states this equals 127:
2(n+1)2+n=127.
- Solve for n Cross‑multiply:
12(2+n)=7⋅2(n+1)⇒24+12n=14n+14.
Bring terms together:
24−14=14n−12n⇒10=2n.
Hence
n=5.
TipA quick sanity check: with n=5, there are 6 coins total. The trick coin contributes 61 to the overall heads probability, and the five fair coins contribute 65⋅21=125. Sum: 61+125=122+125=127. Perfect.
Watch outA common mistake is forgetting that the denominator is n+1, not n. Always count all coins, including the trick coin.
✓Final answerThe correct option is (A).
ANSWER: A
- COMEDK 2025Set 2025-A1 markMCQQ.If for two events A and B,P(A−B)=51 and P(A)=53 then P(B/A)= (A) 32 (B) 21 (C) 53 (D) 52
›Reveal solutionSolution
The key is to interpret P(A−B) as P(A∩Bc) and use the definition of conditional probability. The result is P(B/A)=32, so option (A) is correct.
We are asked for P(B/A), the probability of B given A. The definition is
P(B/A)=P(A)P(A∩B).
We know P(A)=53, so we need P(A∩B). The given P(A−B)=51 is the key: A−B means “A and not B,” i.e., A∩Bc.
- Relate P(A−B) to P(A∩B) Since A is the union of the disjoint parts “A and B” and “A and not B,” we have
P(A)=P(A∩B)+P(A∩Bc).
Here P(A∩Bc)=P(A−B)=51 and P(A)=53.
- Solve for P(A∩B)
53=P(A∩B)+51⇒P(A∩B)=53−51=52.
- Apply the conditional probability formula
P(B/A)=P(A)P(A∩B)=3/52/5=32.
Watch outA common mistake is to confuse P(A−B) with P(Bc) or to think P(A−B)=P(A)−P(B). Remember: A−B is only the part of A that excludes B, not the whole complement of B.
TipVisualize a Venn diagram: A is a circle split into the B overlap and the rest. P(A−B) is the “crescent” of A outside B. Subtracting that from P(A) gives the overlap directly.
✓Final answerThe correct option is (A).
ANSWER: A
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