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Exercise 12.3 · Q11

Q.A year is selected at random. What is the probability that

(i) it contains 53 Sundays
(ii) it is a leap year which contains 53 Sundays?
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Step 1. Per-type probabilities (from the classical reasoning of a non-leap/leap year's extra days). P(53 Sun/non-leap)=17P(53\text{ Sun}/\text{non-leap})=\dfrac17, P(53 Sun/leap)=27P(53\text{ Sun}/\text{leap})=\dfrac27.

Step 2. Weight by how common each type of year is. Using the standard simplified convention P(leap)=14P(\text{leap})=\dfrac14, P(non-leap)=34P(\text{non-leap})=\dfrac34 (one leap year in every four).

Step 3. Part (i) -- total probability of 53 Sundays. By Total Probability: P(53 Sun)=P(non-leap)P(53 Sun/non-leap)+P(leap)P(53 Sun/leap)=34×17+14×27=328+228=528P(53\text{ Sun})=P(\text{non-leap})P(53\text{ Sun}/\text{non-leap})+P(\text{leap})P(53\text{ Sun}/\text{leap})=\dfrac34\times\dfrac17+\dfrac14\times\dfrac27=\dfrac{3}{28}+\dfrac{2}{28}=\dfrac{5}{28}. …

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