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Worked Examples · Example 11
Q.

A firm is considering three courses of action A1,A2,A3A_1, A_2, A_3 under three possible states of nature S1,S2,S3S_1, S_2, S_3 (demand conditions), with the profit (₹'000) payoff table below. The probabilities of the states of nature are not known. Determine the action recommended by (a) the Maximax criterion, (b) the Maximin criterion, (c) the Minimax Regret (Savage) criterion, and (d) the Laplace criterion.

S1S_1S2S_2S3S_3
A1A_1200200200
A2A_2100300300
A3A_350200400
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  1. Maximax (optimist): row maxima are A1=200A_1=200, A2=300A_2=300, A3=400A_3=400. The highest row maximum is 400 → recommends A3A_3.
  2. Maximin (Wald, pessimist): row minima are A1=200A_1=200, A2=100A_2=100, A3=50A_3=50. The highest row minimum is 200 → recommends A1A_1.
  3. Minimax Regret (Savage): build the regret table by subtracting each payoff from its column's best payoff. Column bests: S1=200S_1=200, S2=300S_2=300, S3=400S_3=400.
S1S_1S2S_2S3S_3Max regret
A1A_1200−200=0200-200=0300−200=100300-200=100400−200=200400-200=200200
A2A_2200−100=100200-100=100300−300=0300-300=0400−300=100400-300=100100
A3A_3200−50=150200-50=150300−200=100300-200=100400−400=0400-400=0150

The smallest of the row maximum regrets is min⁡(200,100,150)=100\min(200,100,150)=100 → recommends A2A_2.

(d) Laplace (equal probability): average payoff per action, each state weighted 1/31/3:

Aˉ1=200+200+2003=200,Aˉ2=100+300+3003=233.33,Aˉ3=50+200+4003=216.67\bar A_1=\frac{200+200+200}{3}=200,\quad \bar A_2=\frac{100+300+300}{3}=233.33,\quad \bar A_3=\frac{50+200+400}{3}=216.67 …

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