Skip to content
Miscellaneous Examples · Example 24

Q.If a machine is correctly set up, it produces 90% acceptable items. If it is incorrectly set up, it produces only 40% acceptable items. Past experience shows that 80% of the set ups are correctly done. If after a certain set up, the machine produces 2 acceptable items, find the probability that the machine is correctly setup.

Telangana TsbieTextbookSubjective· 5mImportance★★★★★
44% · 73/165 Questions
🔒 Locked · start free trial →

You're viewing a preview — the full solution, concept, methods & PYQ mapping are locked.

Start your 14-day free trial to unlock the full solution →

By Bayes' theorem, P(correct setup∣2 acceptable)=8185P(\text{correct setup}\mid \text{2 acceptable}) = \dfrac{81}{85}.

Let CC = correct setup, C′C' = incorrect setup, and EE = "two acceptable items".

P(C)=0.8,P(C′)=0.2,P(acceptable∣C)=0.9,P(acceptable∣C′)=0.4.P(C)=0.8,\quad P(C')=0.2,\quad P(\text{acceptable}\mid C)=0.9,\quad P(\text{acceptable}\mid C')=0.4.

Items are independent given the setup, so

P(E∣C)=(0.9)2=0.81,P(E∣C′)=(0.4)2=0.16.P(E\mid C)=(0.9)^2=0.81,\qquad P(E\mid C')=(0.4)^2=0.16.

Total probability of the observation:

P(E)=(0.81)(0.8)+(0.16)(0.2)=0.648+0.032=0.68.P(E)=(0.81)(0.8)+(0.16)(0.2)=0.648+0.032=0.68. …

Unlock everything free for 14 days

  • Full step-by-step solutions
  • Concept-first explanations
  • Methods, shortcuts & mistakes
  • PYQ mapping + timed mock tests

Full access for 14 days. No credit card required.