Q.A box of oranges is inspected by examining three randomly selected oranges drawn without replacement. If all the three oranges are good, the box is approved for sale, otherwise, it is rejected. Find the probability that a box containing 15 oranges out of which 12 are good and 3 are bad ones will be approved for sale.
Concept understanding — Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
Roll a die and ask "what is the chance of an even number?" — that is 3/6. But suppose someone tells you the result is greater than 3. Now you are no longer looking at all six faces, only at {4,5,6}, and two of those (4 and 6) are even, so the probability becomes 2/3. That change — from the probability of A to the probability of A given that B has already occurred — is conditional probability.
The Idea: Shrink the Sample Space
Conditioning on B throws away every outcome where B is false and treats B as the new "whole world." You measure A only against what is still possible.
Think of filtering a table of data: unconditional probability uses every row; conditional probability keeps only the rows where the condition is true.
The Definition
For events A and B with P(B)>0,
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B).
We divide by P(B) to rescale so that B itself has probability 1; the surviving part of A is the overlap A∩B. Checking the die: P(A∩B)=P({4,6})=62 and P(B)=63, so P(A∣B)=3/62/6=32, matching the intuition.
Rearranging gives the multiplication rule P(A∩B)=P(A∣B)P(B), which is usually the easier way to compute a joint probability when a problem says "given that."
Two Cautions
- P(A∣B) and P(B∣A) are generally not equal; swapping them is the classic mistake. They are linked by Bayes' theorem, P(A∣B)=P(B)P(B∣A)P(A).
- If P(A∣B)=P(A), then knowing B tells you nothing about A — the events are independent. That is a special case, not the general rule.
Conditional probability is the foundation of the multiplication theorem, independence, and Bayes' theorem — every "given that" question in this chapter rests on it.
Conditional Probability opens the CBSE Class 12 Probability chapter and is foundational for everything that follows in that unit, including Bayes' theorem and the multiplication rule — making "conditional probability formula class 12 with examples" one of the most searched topics in Class 12 Mathematics. It is equally important for JEE Main and CUET, where conditional probability questions are set almost every year.
The key idea is Hypergeometric Probability — drawing without replacement from a finite population of two types.
We need the probability that all 3 drawn oranges are good.
Step 1: Total ways to choose 3 oranges from 15:
(315)
Step 2: Favorable ways — choose 3 good oranges from the 12 good ones:
(312)
Step 3: Probability = favorable / total:
P=(315)(312)=455220=9144
The probability the box is approved is 9144.
The problem is a classic hypergeometric probability scenario: we need the chance that all three oranges drawn without replacement from a box of 15 (12 good, 3 bad) are good. The answer is 9144.
Why Hypergeometric Probability?
When you draw items without replacement from a finite population that has two distinct types (here: good vs. bad oranges), the probability of getting a certain number of "successes" (good oranges) follows the hypergeometric distribution.
The key difference from the binomial distribution: because we don't replace the oranges, the probability of picking a good orange changes after each draw. The hypergeometric formula handles this by counting combinations directly.
P(exactly k successes)=(ntotal population)(ktotal successes)⋅(n−ktotal failures)
Here, "success" = good orange, "failure" = bad orange, n = number drawn.
Step-by-step solution
1. Identify the numbers
- Total oranges: N=15
- Good oranges (successes in population): K=12
- Bad oranges (failures): N−K=3
- Oranges drawn: n=3
- We need all 3 drawn to be good, so k=3 successes.
2. Apply the hypergeometric formula
We want:
P(3 good)=(315)(312)⋅(03)
3. Compute each combination
- (312)=3×2×112×11×10=220
- (03)=1 (there's exactly one way to choose zero bad oranges)
- (315)=3×2×115×14×13=455
4. Put it together
P=455220×1=455220
5. Simplify the fraction
Divide numerator and denominator by 5:
455÷5220÷5=9144
A common mistake is to treat this as a binomial problem with constant probability 1512=0.8 and compute (0.8)3=0.512. That would give 12564, which is wrong because the probability changes after each draw without replacement. Always check: if sampling is without replacement from a small population, use hypergeometric.
You can also think sequentially:
- First draw: 12/15 chance good
- Second draw (given first was good): 11/14
- Third draw (given first two good): 10/13 Multiply: 1512×1411×1310=27301320=9144 — same result, and often faster for small numbers.
The probability that the box is approved for sale is 9144.
Method: Probability That Every Item Drawn Without Replacement Is of One Type
Use this whenever a sample is drawn without replacement from a finite group of two kinds and you need the chance that all drawn items are the "good" kind.
Steps
Step 1: Set up the dependent chain
Drawing without replacement makes the draws dependent, so use the multiplication theorem, updating the counts each time:
P(all good)=Ng⋅N−1g−1⋅N−2g−2⋯
where g is the number of good items and N the total, each reduced by one per draw.
Step 2: Or count equally likely selections
Equivalently, since all selections are equally likely, take favourable over total using combinations:
P=(kN)(kg).
Step 3: Simplify and sanity-check
Reduce the resulting fraction. Note this is not a binomial/constant-probability situation — because there is no replacement the per-draw probability changes, so never raise a single probability to a power here.
Common Mistakes
Mistake 1: Using a binomial (with-replacement) probability.
Students take a constant p=1512 and compute (1512)3=12564. Why it's wrong: the oranges are drawn without replacement, so the fraction of good ones changes after each pick. Correct approach: 1512×1411×1310=9144, or (315)(312).
Mistake 2: Not reducing the counts after each draw.
Writing 1512×1412×1312 keeps 12 good oranges every time. Why it's wrong: each good orange removed drops both the good count and the total by one. Correct approach: 12/15, 11/14, 10/13.
Showing the 12 most recent of 30 on this concept.
- TG EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-09-AN1 markMCQQ.In a Poisson distribution with parameter λ, if 5P(X=3)=P(X=5), then P(X=2)= (A) e525 (B) e1050 (C) e630 (D) e840
›Reveal solutionSolution
The key idea is to use the Poisson probability formula P(X=k)=k!e−λλk and the given relation 5P(X=3)=P(X=5) to solve for λ, then compute P(X=2). The final answer is e1050, which corresponds to option (B).
The Poisson distribution models the number of events in a fixed interval when events occur independently at a constant average rate λ. The probability mass function is P(X=k)=k!e−λλk for k=0,1,2,…. Here, the condition 5P(X=3)=P(X=5) gives a direct equation in λ because the e−λ factor cancels, leaving a simple algebraic relation. Once λ is found, plugging into P(X=2) yields the answer.
- Write the given condition using the Poisson formula:
5⋅3!e−λλ3=5!e−λλ5
The factor e−λ cancels on both sides (since λ is finite), giving:
5⋅6λ3=120λ5
- Simplify the equation. Multiply both sides by 120 to clear denominators:
5⋅6λ3⋅120=λ5
Compute 120/6=20, so 5⋅20⋅λ3=λ5, i.e., 100λ3=λ5.
- Assuming λ>0 (since it's a rate parameter), divide both sides by λ3:
100=λ2
Hence λ=10 (we take the positive root because λ is a mean, always positive).
Watch outA common mistake is to forget that λ must be positive. Also, do not cancel λ3 if λ=0 — but λ=0 would make all probabilities zero, which contradicts the given relation (since P(X=3) and P(X=5) would both be zero, making 5⋅0=0 trivially true, but that degenerate case is not intended in such problems). Always check that the solution makes physical sense.
- Now compute P(X=2) with λ=10:
P(X=2)=2!e−10⋅102=2e−10⋅100=50e−10
- Write e−10 as e101, so:
P(X=2)=e1050
TipNotice that the answer choices are all of the form eintegerinteger. Once you find λ=10, the denominator e10 immediately points to option (B). This can be a quick sanity check.
✓Final answerThe value is e1050, which corresponds to option (B).
- TG EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-09-FN1 markMCQQ.If P(A)=83, P(A∣B)=P(B∣A)=53, then P(A∩B)+P(B)= (A) 4021 (B) 132 (C) 143 (D) 125
›Reveal solutionSolution
We use the given conditional probabilities to set up equations for P(A∩B) and P(B), then solve and sum them. The result is 4021, which corresponds to option (A).
We are told:
- P(A)=83
- P(A∣B)=53
- P(B∣A)=53
We need P(A∩B)+P(B).
Concept and intuition
Conditional probabilities like P(A∣B) relate the probability of the complement of A given B to the joint probability P(A∩B). Since P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B), we can write an equation linking P(B) and P(A∩B). Similarly, P(B∣A) gives a relation between P(A) and P(A∩B). This lets us solve for the unknowns.
Step-by-step solution
- Use P(B∣A) to find P(A∩B) By definition:
P(B∣A)=P(A)P(B∩A)=53
Since P(B∩A)=P(A)−P(A∩B), we have:
P(A)P(A)−P(A∩B)=53
Substitute P(A)=83:
8383−P(A∩B)=53
Multiply both sides by 83:
83−P(A∩B)=53⋅83=409
So:
P(A∩B)=83−409=4015−409=406=203
- Use P(A∣B) to find P(B) By definition:
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B)=53
Now P(A∩B)=P(B)−P(A∩B). Substitute P(A∩B)=203:
P(B)P(B)−203=53
Multiply both sides by P(B):
P(B)−203=53P(B)
Bring terms together:
P(B)−53P(B)=203
52P(B)=203
So:
P(B)=203⋅25=4015=83
- Compute the required sum
P(A∩B)+P(B)=203+83=406+4015=4021
TipNotice that P(A)=P(B)=83 here — a nice symmetry that emerges from the given numbers.
Watch outA common mistake is to treat P(A∣B) as 1−P(A∣B) incorrectly — that works only if you adjust carefully. Always go back to the definition P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B).
✓Final answerThe correct option is (A).
ANSWER: A
- TG EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-10-AN1 markMCQQ.A card is drawn randomly from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards. If A is the event of getting a diamond card and B is the event of getting an ace card, then the probability that exactly one of the events among A and B to occur is (A) 5215 (B) 134 (C) 5217 (D) 135
›Reveal solutionSolution
The probability that exactly one of the events A (diamond) or B (ace) occurs is the sum of their individual probabilities minus twice the probability of both occurring. The result is 5215, which corresponds to option (A).
We want the probability that exactly one of the two events happens — that is, either we draw a diamond that is not an ace, or we draw an ace that is not a diamond. This is a classic "exclusive or" (XOR) situation.
Why this approach works:
If we simply add P(A)+P(B), we count the case where both occur (the ace of diamonds) twice. To get exactly one, we subtract that double-counted overlap once more than usual — hence P(A)+P(B)−2P(A∩B).
-
Identify the probabilities of each event individually.
- There are 13 diamonds in a deck of 52, so P(A)=5213=41.
- There are 4 aces, so P(B)=524=131.
-
Find the probability that both events occur (the intersection).
- Only one card is both a diamond and an ace: the ace of diamonds.
- So P(A∩B)=521.
-
Apply the formula for exactly one event.
- Exactly one of A or B occurs means: (A and not B) or (B and not A).
- The probability is:
P(exactly one)=P(A)+P(B)−2P(A∩B)
- Substitute the values:
5213+524−2⋅521=5213+4−2=5215
- Check against the options.
- 5215 matches option (A).
- For completeness: 134=5216, 5217, and 135=5220 are all different.
TipA quick sanity check: The probability of exactly one is also P(A)+P(B)−2P(A∩B). Many students mistakenly use P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B), which gives "at least one" instead of "exactly one."
Watch outA common pitfall is forgetting to subtract the intersection twice. If you only subtract it once, you get 5216=134, which is option (B) — the probability of at least one, not exactly one.
✓Final answerThe correct option is (A).
ANSWER: A
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- TG EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-10-FN1 markMCQQ.Three persons A, B, C planned to have a running race among themselves. If the probability that A wins the race is thrice that of B and the probability that B wins the race is 23 times that of C, then the difference in probabilities of A and C to win the race is (A) 32 (B) 21 (C) 145 (D) 73
›Reveal solutionSolution
With P(A)=149, P(C)=142, the difference is P(A)−P(C)=21.
Let P(C)=p. Then P(B)=23p and P(A)=3P(B)=29p.
The three probabilities sum to 1 (one of them must win):
29p+23p+p=7p=1 ⇒ p=71.
Hence
P(A)=29⋅71=149,P(C)=71=142.
The required difference is
P(A)−P(C)=149−142=147=21.
✓Final answerThe difference in the winning probabilities of A and C is 21 — option (B).
- CA Foundation 2026Set jan-20261 markMCQQ.If in a class, 50% of the student study mathematics and science and 70% of the student study mathematics, then the probability of a student studying science given that he/she is already studying mathematics is (A) 73 (B) 76 (C) 74 (D) 75
›Reveal solutionSolution
Conditional probability P(S∣M)=P(M)P(M∩S).
Step 1 — identify the probabilities
50% study both maths and science, so P(M∩S)=0.5; 70% study maths, so P(M)=0.7.
Step 2 — apply the conditional-probability formula
P(S∣M)=P(M)P(M∩S)=0.70.5=75.
Watch outDivide by the given event's probability: since maths is given, the denominator is P(M)=0.7, not P(S) or the total. Dividing the other way (0.7/0.5) gives a value above 1, which is impossible for a probability.
Tip"Given that" tells you the denominator. Here it is "given studying mathematics," so put P(M) on the bottom: 0.5/0.7=5/7.
✓Final answer(D) 5/7
- CA Foundation 2026Set jan-20261 markMCQQ.If two dice are rolled, then the probability of getting a greater number on the first die than the one on the second, given that the sum should be equal to 7 is (A) 21 (B) 31 (C) 61 (D) 32
›Reveal solutionSolution
Conditional probability on a reduced sample space: P(A∣B)=n(B)n(A∩B).
Step 1 — list the outcomes with sum 7.
(1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),(5,2),(6,1)⇒n(B)=6.
Step 2 — count first die greater than second, among those.
(4,3),(5,2),(6,1) → 3 outcomes.
Step 3 — conditional probability.
P=63=21.
Watch outThe condition "sum = 7" shrinks the sample space to those 6 outcomes — divide by 6, not by the full 36. Using 3/36 gives 1/12, which isn't even an option.
TipNone of the sum-7 pairs are ties, so by symmetry "first > second" and "first < second" split the 6 outcomes evenly — the answer is simply half.
✓Final answer(A) 1/2
- TG EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-02-AN1 markMCQQ.Let P=147258369 be a matrix. Three elements of this matrix P are selected at random. A is the event of having the three elements whose sum is odd. B is the event of selecting the three elements which are in a row or column. Then P(A)+P(BA)= (A) 420221 (B) 2117 (C) 2021 (D) 23
›Reveal solutionSolution
We compute the probability that three randomly chosen entries sum to an odd number, then the conditional probability of that event given they lie in a single row or column, and add them. The result simplifies to 2117, which is option (B).
Concept & Intuition
The matrix has 9 entries. We pick 3 of them uniformly at random.
- For event A (odd sum), we need to count how many triples have an odd total. Since odd/even depends only on parity, we first classify the 9 numbers by parity: 1,3,5,7,9 are odd (5 odds); 2,4,6,8 are even (4 evens). The sum of three numbers is odd iff we have an odd number of odd entries among them — i.e., 1 or 3 odds.
- For event B (all in one row or one column), we count triples that lie entirely in a single row (3 rows, each row has 3 entries → 1 triple per row) or entirely in a single column (3 columns, each column has 3 entries → 1 triple per column). That gives 3+3=6 triples.
- Then P(A/B) is the fraction of those 6 triples that also have an odd sum.
We compute both probabilities and add them.
Step-by-step
- Total number of ways to choose 3 entries from 9
(39)=84.
- Count triples with odd sum (event A)
- Case 1: exactly 1 odd, 2 evens Choose 1 odd from 5 odds: (15)=5 Choose 2 evens from 4 evens: (24)=6 Total: 5×6=30 triples.
- Case 2: exactly 3 odds, 0 evens Choose 3 odds from 5 odds: (35)=10 Total: 10 triples.
- So ∣A∣=30+10=40. Hence
P(A)=8440=2110.
- Count triples in a row or column (event B)
- Rows: 3 rows, each row has exactly 1 triple (all three entries). So 3 triples.
- Columns: 3 columns, each column has exactly 1 triple. So 3 triples.
- Total: ∣B∣=6. Hence
P(B)=846=141.
-
Count triples that are both in a row/column AND have odd sum (event A∩B)
Check each row and column for odd sum:
- Row 1: {1,2,3} → sum = 6 (even) → not in A.
- Row 2: {4,5,6} → sum = 15 (odd) → in A.
- Row 3: {7,8,9} → sum = 24 (even) → not in A.
- Column 1: {1,4,7} → sum = 12 (even) → not in A.
- Column 2: {2,5,8} → sum = 15 (odd) → in A.
- Column 3: {3,6,9} → sum = 18 (even) → not in A. So exactly 2 triples (row 2 and column 2) satisfy both. Hence ∣A∩B∣=2.
-
Conditional probability P(A/B)
P(A/B)=∣B∣∣A∩B∣=62=31.
- Add the two probabilities
P(A)+P(A/B)=2110+31=2110+217=2117.
TipA common mistake is to compute P(A/B) using the full sample space instead of restricting to B. Always remember: conditional probability uses only the outcomes in B as the denominator.
✓Final answerThe correct option is (B).
ANSWER: B
- TG EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-02-AN1 markMCQQ.A, B1, B2, B3 are the events in a random experiment. If P(B1)=0.25, P(B2)=0.30, P(B3)=0.45, P(B1A)=0.05, P(B2A)=0.04, P(B3A)=0.03, then P(AB2)= (A) 196 (B) 198 (C) 1912 (D) 195
›Reveal solutionSolution
This is a classic Bayes’ theorem problem: we are given prior probabilities for three mutually exclusive events and the conditional probabilities of A given each, and we need the posterior probability of B2 given A. The answer is 196, which corresponds to option (A).
We start with the concept: Bayes’ theorem lets us “reverse” conditional probabilities. Here, we know P(A∣Bi) and want P(B2∣A). The key is that the Bi form a partition of the sample space (they are the only possible “causes” of A), so we can compute P(A) using the law of total probability, then apply Bayes’ formula.
-
Identify the given data
- P(B1)=0.25, P(B2)=0.30, P(B3)=0.45
- P(A∣B1)=0.05, P(A∣B2)=0.04, P(A∣B3)=0.03 The events B1,B2,B3 are mutually exclusive and exhaustive (their probabilities sum to 1), so they form a partition.
-
Compute the total probability of A
By the law of total probability:
P(A)=P(B1)P(A∣B1)+P(B2)P(A∣B2)+P(B3)P(A∣B3)
Substitute:
P(A)=(0.25)(0.05)+(0.30)(0.04)+(0.45)(0.03)
Calculate each term:
- 0.25×0.05=0.0125
- 0.30×0.04=0.0120
- 0.45×0.03=0.0135 Sum:
P(A)=0.0125+0.0120+0.0135=0.0380
- Apply Bayes’ theorem for P(B2∣A) Bayes’ theorem states:
P(B2∣A)=P(A)P(B2)P(A∣B2)
Plug in the numbers:
P(B2∣A)=0.03800.30×0.04=0.03800.0120
- Simplify the fraction Divide numerator and denominator by 0.002 (or multiply by 1000 to clear decimals):
0.03800.0120=3812=196
So P(B2∣A)=196.
TipA common pitfall is forgetting to compute P(A) correctly — students sometimes use only the numerator. Always check that the denominator is the total probability of A, not just one term.
✓Final answerThe correct option is (A).
ANSWER: A
-
- TG EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-02-AN1 markMCQQ.A typist claims that he prepares a typed page with typo errors of 1 per 10 pages. In a typing assignment of 40 pages, if the probability that the typo errors are at most 2 is p, then e2p= (A) 5 (B) 13 (C) 13e−2 (D) 5e−2
›Reveal solutionSolution
The problem models rare typos with a Poisson distribution (mean = 4 typos in 40 pages). The probability of at most 2 typos is p=e−4(1+4+8)=13e−4, so e2p=13e−2, matching option (C).
We have a typist who averages 1 typo per 10 pages. That’s a small rate for a rare event over a fixed “area” (pages). When events are rare and independent, the Poisson distribution is the natural choice — it counts the number of occurrences in a fixed interval when the average rate is known. Here, the “interval” is 40 pages.
Why Poisson?
- Each page has a small chance of a typo.
- Pages are independent.
- We care about the count of typos, not their arrangement. The Poisson distribution with parameter λ (the mean number of events in the interval) fits perfectly.
- Find the average number of typos in 40 pages. The rate is 1 typo per 10 pages, so in 40 pages:
λ=10 pages1 typo×40 pages=4.
- Set up the Poisson probability formula. For a Poisson random variable X with mean λ:
P(X=k)=k!e−λλk.
We need P(X≤2)=P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2).
-
Compute each term.
- P(X=0)=0!e−4⋅40=e−4.
- P(X=1)=1!e−4⋅41=4e−4.
- P(X=2)=2!e−4⋅42=216e−4=8e−4.
-
Sum them to get p.
p=e−4+4e−4+8e−4=13e−4.
- Compute e2p.
e2p=e2⋅13e−4=13e−2.
Watch outA common mistake is to use the binomial distribution with n=40 and p=0.1 (since 1/10 = 0.1). That would give a different (and incorrect) answer because the Poisson is the exact limit for rare events over a continuous “exposure” — and here the problem’s phrasing (“1 per 10 pages”) strongly signals a rate, not a per-page probability.
TipNotice that e2p simplifies to 13e−2, which is already one of the options. No need to approximate numerically — the algebra gives the answer directly.
✓Final answerThe correct option is (C).
ANSWER: C
- TG EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-03-FN1 markMCQQ.The probability distribution of a random variable X is given below. Then, the standard deviation of X is
[!FORMULA] X=xiP(X=xi)23k3k5k72k12k
(A) 11 (B) 11 (C) 5 (D) 5›Reveal solutionSolution
The key idea is to first find the constant k by ensuring the total probability sums to 1, then compute the mean μ, then the variance σ2=E[X2]−μ2, and finally take the square root to get the standard deviation. The result is 11, so the correct option is (B).
We are given a discrete probability distribution. To find the standard deviation, we need the mean (expected value) and the variance. But first, we must determine the unknown constant k from the condition that probabilities sum to 1.
Why this approach works:
Standard deviation measures spread around the mean. For a discrete random variable, we compute the mean μ=∑xiP(xi), then the variance σ2=∑(xi−μ)2P(xi) or equivalently σ2=E[X2]−μ2. The square root of variance gives the standard deviation. The constant k is found by normalizing the probabilities.
-
Find k using total probability = 1
The probabilities are: P(2)=3k, P(3)=k, P(5)=k, P(7)=2k, P(12)=k.
Sum: 3k+k+k+2k+k=8k.
Set 8k=1⇒k=81.
-
Compute the mean μ=E[X]
μ=∑xiP(xi)=2⋅83+3⋅81+5⋅81+7⋅82+12⋅81
=86+83+85+814+812=840=5.
So the mean is 5.
- Compute E[X2]
E[X2]=∑xi2P(xi)=4⋅83+9⋅81+25⋅81+49⋅82+144⋅81
=812+89+825+898+8144=8288=36.
- Find the variance σ2 Using the shortcut formula:
σ2=E[X2]−μ2=36−52=36−25=11.
- Standard deviation σ
σ=11.
TipNotice that the mean turned out to be 5, which is one of the given values. This is a coincidence, but it’s always wise to compute carefully — don’t assume the mean is one of the outcomes.
Watch outA common mistake is to forget to take the square root after finding the variance. The problem asks for standard deviation, not variance. Here variance is 11, so standard deviation is 11, not 11.
✓Final answerThe correct option is (B).
ANSWER: B
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- TG EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-04-AN1 markMCQQ.In a Poisson distribution, if P(X=2)P(X=5)=75001 and P(X=3)P(X=5)=5001, then the mean of the distribution is (A) 151 (B) 51 (C) 251 (D) 31
›Reveal solutionSolution
The key idea is to use the ratio formulas for Poisson probabilities to eliminate the common factor and solve for the mean λ. The mean is found to be 1/5, so option (B) is correct.
The Poisson distribution has probability mass function
P(X=k)=k!e−λλk,k=0,1,2,…
where λ>0 is the mean. When we take ratios of probabilities, the factor e−λ cancels, leaving only powers of λ and factorials. This makes ratios a clean way to solve for λ without needing the actual probabilities.
- Write the given ratios in terms of λ.
P(X=2)P(X=5)=2!e−λλ25!e−λλ5=λ2/2λ5/120=60λ3
The problem states this equals 75001. So:
60λ3=75001
- Solve for λ3 from the first ratio. Multiply both sides by 60:
λ3=750060=1251
Hence λ=31251=51.
- Check consistency with the second ratio.
P(X=3)P(X=5)=λ3/6λ5/120=20λ2
Plug λ=1/5:
20(1/5)2=201/25=5001
This matches the given 5001, confirming our solution.
Watch outA common mistake is forgetting to include the factorial terms when simplifying the ratio. Always write out k! explicitly: 5!=120, 2!=2, 3!=6.
TipNotice that the two ratios give two equations, but they are not independent — both lead to the same λ. You only need one ratio to solve; the second serves as a verification.
✓Final answerThe correct option is (B).
ANSWER: B
- TG EAPCET 2024Set eng-2024-05-09-FN1 markMCQQ.If the probability that a student selected at random from a particular college is good at mathematics is 0.6, then the probability of having two students who are good at mathematics in a group of 8 students of that college standing in front of the college is (A) 5826×32×7 (B) 5626×32×7 (C) 5628×32×7 (D) 5828×32×7
›Reveal solutionSolution
This is a binomial trial with n=8, p=0.6. P(X=2)=(28)(0.6)2(0.4)6=5828×32×7, option (D).
Binomial model
Each student is independently good at mathematics with probability p=0.6=53, so q=0.4=52. For n=8 students, the number good at mathematics is binomial, and we want exactly two:
P(X=2)=(28)p2q6=(28)(53)2(52)6.
Simplify
(28)=28,(53)2=5232,(52)6=5626.
P(X=2)=28⋅5232⋅5626=5828⋅32⋅26.
Write 28=22×7:
=5822×7×32×26=5828×32×7.
✓Final answerP(exactly two)=5828×32×7. The correct option is (D).
ANSWER: D
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