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Mathematics · Ch 9 — Probability

Summary

Summary

  • Conditional Probability: P(A∣B)=P(A∩B)P(B)P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}, for P(B)>0P(B) > 0. It redefines the sample space to BB.

  • Multiplication Theorem: P(A∩B)=P(A)⋅P(B∣A)=P(B)⋅P(A∣B)P(A \cap B) = P(A) \cdot P(B|A) = P(B) \cdot P(A|B).

  • Independent Events: AA and BB are independent iff P(A∩B)=P(A)⋅P(B)P(A \cap B) = P(A) \cdot P(B). This implies P(A∣B)=P(A)P(A|B) = P(A) and P(B∣A)=P(B)P(B|A) = P(B).

  • Total Probability Theorem: If events E1,E2,…,EnE_1, E_2, \dots, E_n form a partition of the sample space, then P(A)=∑i=1nP(Ei)⋅P(A∣Ei)P(A) = \sum_{i=1}^n P(E_i) \cdot P(A|E_i).

  • Bayes' Theorem: P(Ei∣A)=P(Ei)⋅P(A∣Ei)∑j=1nP(Ej)⋅P(A∣Ej)P(E_i|A) = \frac{P(E_i) \cdot P(A|E_i)}{\sum_{j=1}^n P(E_j) \cdot P(A|E_j)}. Used to find "reverse" probabilities.

  • Random Variable: A function X:S→RX: S \to \mathbb{R}. Its probability distribution lists all values xix_i with P(X=xi)P(X = x_i).

  • Mean (Expectation): μ=E(X)=∑xi⋅P(X=xi)\mu = E(X) = \sum x_i \cdot P(X = x_i).

  • Variance: Var(X)=∑(xi−μ)2⋅P(X=xi)=E(X2)−[E(X)]2\text{Var}(X) = \sum (x_i - \mu)^2 \cdot P(X = x_i) = E(X^2) - [E(X)]^2. …