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Worked Examples · Example 2

Q.A drawing pin was tossed 500 times, and it landed 'point up' 316 times. Using the relative-frequency (empirical) approach, estimate the probability that the pin lands point up on the next toss.

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✓ Free question

Step 1 — Identify why the classical approach does not apply. A drawing pin's two landing positions (point up / point down) have no reason to be equally likely, unlike a fair coin's two faces — so P=mnP=\frac{m}{n} (classical) cannot be used; the relative-frequency (empirical) approach is the correct tool.

Step 2 — Apply the relative-frequency formula.

P(point up)≈fn=316500=0.632P(\text{point up})\approx\dfrac{f}{n}=\dfrac{316}{500}=0.632

Dual-check (percentage route): 316500×100=63.2%\dfrac{316}{500}\times100=63.2\%, and 63.2%63.2\% expressed as a decimal is 0.6320.632 — the same figure reached a second, independent way.

✓Final answer

The estimated probability that the pin lands point up is 316500=0.632\dfrac{316}{500}=0.632 (i.e. 63.2%). This is only an ESTIMATE based on 500 trials — a larger number of trials would generally give an even more reliable estimate.

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