Q.In a school, there are 1000 students, out of which 430 are girls. It is known that out of 430, 10% of the girls study in class XII. What is the probability that a student chosen randomly studies in Class XII given that the chosen student is a girl?
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🔒 Start your 14-day free trial to unlock the full solution →Concept understanding — Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
Roll a die and ask "what is the chance of an even number?" — that is 3/6. But suppose someone tells you the result is greater than 3. Now you are no longer looking at all six faces, only at {4,5,6}, and two of those (4 and 6) are even, so the probability becomes 2/3. That change — from the probability of A to the probability of A given that B has already occurred — is conditional probability.
The Idea: Shrink the Sample Space
Conditioning on B throws away every outcome where B is false and treats B as the new "whole world." You measure A only against what is still possible.
Think of filtering a table of data: unconditional probability uses every row; conditional probability keeps only the rows where the condition is true.
The Definition
For events A and B with P(B)>0,
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B).
We divide by P(B) to rescale so that B itself has probability 1; the surviving part of A is the overlap A∩B. Checking the die: P(A∩B)=P({4,6})=62 and P(B)=63, so P(A∣B)=3/62/6=32, matching the intuition.
Rearranging gives the multiplication rule P(A∩B)=P(A∣B)P(B), which is usually the easier way to compute a joint probability when a problem says "given that."
Two Cautions
- P(A∣B) and P(B∣A) are generally not equal; swapping them is the classic mistake. They are linked by Bayes' theorem, P(A∣B)=P(B)P(B∣A)P(A). …
The key idea is conditional probability: the probability of event A (studies in Class XII) given event B (student is a girl) is P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B).
Step 1: Total students = 1000, total girls = 430. So P(B)=1000430. …
The problem asks for the conditional probability that a student studies in Class XII given that the student is a girl. Using the definition P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B), we find that the probability is simply the proportion of girls in Class XII among all girls, which is 10% or 0.1.
The core idea here is conditional probability — the chance of one event happening when we already know another event has occurred. When we say "given that the chosen student is a girl," we are restricting our universe to only the girls. The probability we want is: out of all girls, what fraction are in Class XII?
This is not about the whole school of 1000 students. The "given" condition shrinks the sample space. So we don't need the total number of students at all — only the number of girls and the number of girls in Class XII.
Let’s work through it step by step.
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Define the events clearly.
Let A be the event that a randomly chosen student studies in Class XII.
Let B be the event that the chosen student is a girl.
We are asked for P(A∣B), the probability of A given B.
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Recall the formula for conditional probability.
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B)
Here A∩B is the event that the student is both a girl and studies in Class XII.
-
Extract the given numbers.
Total students = 1000.
Number of girls = 430.
Out of these 430 girls, 10% study in Class XII.
So number of girls in Class XII = 10% of 430=10010×430=43.
-
Compute the probabilities.
P(B)=Total studentsNumber of girls=1000430=0.43
P(A∩B)=Total studentsNumber of girls in Class XII=100043=0.043
- Apply the conditional probability formula. P(A∣B)=0.430.043=43043=0.1 …
Method: Conditional probability as a proportion within the condition group
Use this whenever "given that the item belongs to group B" is really asking for a fraction inside that group. It is the fastest reading of conditional probability for count/percentage data.
Steps
Step 1: Treat the conditioning group as the new whole.
"Given the student is a girl" means the girls become 100% of the world you now measure against. The overall population total stops mattering.
Step 2: Take the favourable count over the group count.
P(A∣B)=total members of Bmembers of B that also satisfy A.
Here that is (girls in Class XII) ÷ (all girls). …
Common Mistakes
Mistake 1: Keeping the whole school of 1000 in the denominator after conditioning.
Why it's wrong: "given the student is a girl" restricts the world to the 430 girls, so the denominator must be 430. Correct approach: compute (girls in Class XII)/(all girls) =43043=101.
Mistake 2: Misreading "10% of the 430 girls" as 10% of all students. …
Showing the 12 most recent of 30 on this concept.
- TG EAPCET 2021Set eng-2021-08-04-FN1 markMCQQ.If P(BA)=103, P(AB)=54 and P(A∪B)=KP(B), then K1= (A) 4940 (B) 4340 (C) 101100 (D) 1
›Reveal solutionSolution
The key idea is to use the definitions of conditional probability to relate P(A∩B) to P(A) and P(B), then express P(A∪B) in terms of P(B) alone. The result is K1=4340.
We are given two conditional probabilities and a relation involving the union. The goal is to find K1, where P(A∪B)=KP(B). This is a problem about linking conditional probabilities to the basic probability of events, so we start by writing down what each conditional means.
Recall: P(A/B)=P(B)P(A∩B) and P(B/A)=P(A)P(A∩B). These are not symmetric — each gives a different ratio. Our job is to use them to find P(A) and P(A∩B) in terms of P(B), then compute P(A∪B).
- From P(A/B) we get P(A∩B) in terms of P(B).
P(A/B)=103⇒P(B)P(A∩B)=103
So
P(A∩B)=103P(B).
- From P(B/A) we get P(A) in terms of P(A∩B).
P(B/A)=54⇒P(A)P(A∩B)=54
Hence
P(A)=45P(A∩B).
- Substitute the expression for P(A∩B) from step 1 into step 2.
P(A)=45⋅103P(B)=4015P(B)=83P(B).
So P(A) is 83 of P(B).
- Now write P(A∪B) using the inclusion-exclusion formula.
P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B).
Substitute the expressions we have:
P(A∪B)=83P(B)+P(B)−103P(B).
- Combine the terms over a common denominator. …
- TG EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-02-AN1 markMCQQ.A, B1, B2, B3 are the events in a random experiment. If P(B1)=0.25, P(B2)=0.30, P(B3)=0.45, P(B1A)=0.05, P(B2A)=0.04, P(B3A)=0.03, then P(AB2)= (A) 196 (B) 198 (C) 1912 (D) 195
›Reveal solutionSolution
This is a classic Bayes’ theorem problem: we are given prior probabilities for three mutually exclusive events and the conditional probabilities of A given each, and we need the posterior probability of B2 given A. The answer is 196, which corresponds to option (A).
We start with the concept: Bayes’ theorem lets us “reverse” conditional probabilities. Here, we know P(A∣Bi) and want P(B2∣A). The key is that the Bi form a partition of the sample space (they are the only possible “causes” of A), so we can compute P(A) using the law of total probability, then apply Bayes’ formula.
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Identify the given data
- P(B1)=0.25, P(B2)=0.30, P(B3)=0.45
- P(A∣B1)=0.05, P(A∣B2)=0.04, P(A∣B3)=0.03 The events B1,B2,B3 are mutually exclusive and exhaustive (their probabilities sum to 1), so they form a partition.
-
Compute the total probability of A
By the law of total probability:
P(A)=P(B1)P(A∣B1)+P(B2)P(A∣B2)+P(B3)P(A∣B3)
Substitute:
P(A)=(0.25)(0.05)+(0.30)(0.04)+(0.45)(0.03)
Calculate each term:
- 0.25×0.05=0.0125
- 0.30×0.04=0.0120
- 0.45×0.03=0.0135 Sum:
P(A)=0.0125+0.0120+0.0135=0.0380
- Apply Bayes’ theorem for P(B2∣A) Bayes’ theorem states:
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- TG EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-10-AN1 markMCQQ.A card is drawn randomly from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards. If A is the event of getting a diamond card and B is the event of getting an ace card, then the probability that exactly one of the events among A and B to occur is (A) 5215 (B) 134 (C) 5217 (D) 135
›Reveal solutionSolution
The probability that exactly one of the events A (diamond) or B (ace) occurs is the sum of their individual probabilities minus twice the probability of both occurring. The result is 5215, which corresponds to option (A).
We want the probability that exactly one of the two events happens — that is, either we draw a diamond that is not an ace, or we draw an ace that is not a diamond. This is a classic "exclusive or" (XOR) situation.
Why this approach works:
If we simply add P(A)+P(B), we count the case where both occur (the ace of diamonds) twice. To get exactly one, we subtract that double-counted overlap once more than usual — hence P(A)+P(B)−2P(A∩B).
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Identify the probabilities of each event individually.
- There are 13 diamonds in a deck of 52, so P(A)=5213=41.
- There are 4 aces, so P(B)=524=131.
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Find the probability that both events occur (the intersection).
- Only one card is both a diamond and an ace: the ace of diamonds.
- So P(A∩B)=521.
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Apply the formula for exactly one event.
- Exactly one of A or B occurs means: (A and not B) or (B and not A).
- The probability is:
P(exactly one)=P(A)+P(B)−2P(A∩B)
- Substitute the values:
5213+524−2⋅521=5213+4−2=5215
- Check against the options. …
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- TG EAPCET 2024Set eng-2024-05-09-FN1 markMCQQ.If the probability that a student selected at random from a particular college is good at mathematics is 0.6, then the probability of having two students who are good at mathematics in a group of 8 students of that college standing in front of the college is (A) 5826×32×7 (B) 5626×32×7 (C) 5628×32×7 (D) 5828×32×7
›Reveal solutionSolution
This is a binomial trial with n=8, p=0.6. P(X=2)=(28)(0.6)2(0.4)6=5828×32×7, option (D).
Binomial model
Each student is independently good at mathematics with probability p=0.6=53, so q=0.4=52. For n=8 students, the number good at mathematics is binomial, and we want exactly two:
P(X=2)=(28)p2q6=(28)(53)2(52)6.
Simplify
(28)=28,(53)2=5232,(52)6=5626. …
- TG EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-09-FN1 markMCQQ.If P(A)=83, P(A∣B)=P(B∣A)=53, then P(A∩B)+P(B)= (A) 4021 (B) 132 (C) 143 (D) 125
›Reveal solutionSolution
We use the given conditional probabilities to set up equations for P(A∩B) and P(B), then solve and sum them. The result is 4021, which corresponds to option (A).
We are told:
- P(A)=83
- P(A∣B)=53
- P(B∣A)=53
We need P(A∩B)+P(B).
Concept and intuition
Conditional probabilities like P(A∣B) relate the probability of the complement of A given B to the joint probability P(A∩B). Since P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B), we can write an equation linking P(B) and P(A∩B). Similarly, P(B∣A) gives a relation between P(A) and P(A∩B). This lets us solve for the unknowns.
Step-by-step solution
- Use P(B∣A) to find P(A∩B) By definition:
P(B∣A)=P(A)P(B∩A)=53
Since P(B∩A)=P(A)−P(A∩B), we have:
P(A)P(A)−P(A∩B)=53
Substitute P(A)=83:
8383−P(A∩B)=53
Multiply both sides by 83:
83−P(A∩B)=53⋅83=409
So:
P(A∩B)=83−409=4015−409=406=203
- Use P(A∣B) to find P(B) By definition:
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B)=53
Now P(A∩B)=P(B)−P(A∩B). Substitute P(A∩B)=203:
P(B)P(B)−203=53
Multiply both sides by P(B): …
- TG EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-02-AN1 markMCQQ.Let P=147258369 be a matrix. Three elements of this matrix P are selected at random. A is the event of having the three elements whose sum is odd. B is the event of selecting the three elements which are in a row or column. Then P(A)+P(BA)= (A) 420221 (B) 2117 (C) 2021 (D) 23
›Reveal solutionSolution
We compute the probability that three randomly chosen entries sum to an odd number, then the conditional probability of that event given they lie in a single row or column, and add them. The result simplifies to 2117, which is option (B).
Concept & Intuition
The matrix has 9 entries. We pick 3 of them uniformly at random.
- For event A (odd sum), we need to count how many triples have an odd total. Since odd/even depends only on parity, we first classify the 9 numbers by parity: 1,3,5,7,9 are odd (5 odds); 2,4,6,8 are even (4 evens). The sum of three numbers is odd iff we have an odd number of odd entries among them — i.e., 1 or 3 odds.
- For event B (all in one row or one column), we count triples that lie entirely in a single row (3 rows, each row has 3 entries → 1 triple per row) or entirely in a single column (3 columns, each column has 3 entries → 1 triple per column). That gives 3+3=6 triples.
- Then P(A/B) is the fraction of those 6 triples that also have an odd sum.
We compute both probabilities and add them.
Step-by-step
- Total number of ways to choose 3 entries from 9
(39)=84.
- Count triples with odd sum (event A)
- Case 1: exactly 1 odd, 2 evens Choose 1 odd from 5 odds: (15)=5 Choose 2 evens from 4 evens: (24)=6 Total: 5×6=30 triples.
- Case 2: exactly 3 odds, 0 evens Choose 3 odds from 5 odds: (35)=10 Total: 10 triples.
- So ∣A∣=30+10=40. Hence
P(A)=8440=2110.
- Count triples in a row or column (event B)
- Rows: 3 rows, each row has exactly 1 triple (all three entries). So 3 triples.
- Columns: 3 columns, each column has exactly 1 triple. So 3 triples.
- Total: ∣B∣=6. Hence
P(B)=846=141.
- Count triples that are both in a row/column AND have odd sum (event A∩B) Check each row and column for odd sum: …
- TG EAPCET 2021Set eng-2021-08-04-FN1 markMCQQ.If the probability that an individual will suffer a bad reaction from an injection is 0.001, then the probability that out of 2000 individuals, exactly 3 individuals suffer a bad reaction is (A) 3e24 (B) e22 (C) 3e22 (D) 5e24
›Reveal solutionSolution
This is a rare-event problem where n=2000 is large and p=0.001 is small, so the Poisson approximation to the binomial distribution applies. The probability that exactly 3 individuals suffer a reaction is 3e24, which corresponds to option (A).
The key insight here is that we are dealing with a binomial experiment: 2000 independent trials, each with a constant probability of "success" (bad reaction) p=0.001. The exact probability of exactly 3 successes would be (32000)(0.001)3(0.999)1997. That expression is perfectly correct but computationally messy — and more importantly, it misses the conceptual point.
When n is large and p is very small, the binomial distribution is well approximated by the Poisson distribution with parameter λ=np. This is the classic "rare event" scenario. The Poisson distribution gives us a clean, closed-form answer that matches one of the given options exactly.
Let's work through it step by step.
- Identify the exact binomial probability. For n=2000, p=0.001, the probability of exactly k=3 reactions is
P(X=3)=(32000)(0.001)3(0.999)1997.
This is the truth, but we won't evaluate it directly — the numbers are unwieldy and the exam expects the Poisson approximation.
- Compute the Poisson parameter λ.
λ=np=2000×0.001=2.
This λ=2 is the average number of bad reactions expected in 2000 individuals.
- Apply the Poisson approximation. For a Poisson random variable Y with mean λ,
P(Y=k)=k!e−λλk.
Here λ=2 and k=3, so …
- TG EAPCET 2024Set eng-2024-05-11-FN1 markMCQQ.If 4 letters are selected at random from the letters of the word PROBABILITY, then the probability of getting a combination of letters in which atleast one letter is repeated is (A) 17043 (B) 6119 (C) 18457 (D) 15529
›Reveal solutionSolution
The multiset PROBABILITY has 9 distinct letters (with B and I each twice). Total 4-letter selections =183; those with a repeat =57, so the probability is 18357=6119, option (B).
Letters of PROBABILITY: P,R,O,B,A,B,I,L,I,T,Y — 11 letters, 9 distinct types, with B and I appearing twice each.
Step 1 — Total number of 4-letter selections (order does not matter).
Count by repetition pattern:
- All four distinct: (49)=126.
- Exactly one repeated pair (B or I) plus two other distinct letters: 2×(28)=2×28=56.
- Two repeated pairs, i.e. {B,B,I,I}: 1 way. …
- TG EAPCET 2024Set eng-2024-05-11-FN1 markMCQQ.The numbers 2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13 are written on six distinct paper chits. If 3 of them are chosen at random, then the probability that the sum of the numbers on the obtained chits is divisible by 3, is (A) 207 (B) 206 (C) 205 (D) 51
›Reveal solutionSolution
The key idea is to classify each number by its remainder modulo 3, then count only those 3‑card combinations whose remainders sum to a multiple of 3. The probability is 207, which corresponds to option (A).
We have six numbers: 2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13.
We pick 3 at random. The total number of ways is (36)=20.
We want the probability that the sum of the three chosen numbers is divisible by 3.
Why classify by remainder?
A number’s remainder modulo 3 determines whether it contributes 0, 1, or 2 to the total sum mod 3. The sum of three numbers is divisible by 3 exactly when the sum of their remainders is 0 mod 3. This turns a problem about specific numbers into a simple counting problem about remainder classes.
Step-by-step
-
Find each number’s remainder mod 3
- 2≡2
- 3≡0
- 5≡2
- 7≡1
- 11≡2
- 13≡1
So we have:
- Remainder 0: {3} → 1 number
- Remainder 1: {7, 13} → 2 numbers
- Remainder 2: {2, 5, 11} → 3 numbers
-
Which remainder combinations sum to 0 mod 3?
Let (r1, r2, r3) be the remainders of the three chosen numbers. We need r1+r2+r3≡0(mod3).
The possible triples (order doesn’t matter) are:
- (0,0,0) — all three have remainder 0
- (1,1,1) — all three have remainder 1
- (2,2,2) — all three have remainder 2
- (0,1,2) — one of each remainder
No other triple works (e.g., (0,0,1) sums to 1, etc.).
-
Count the number of 3‑card combinations for each case
- (0,0,0): Only 1 number with remainder 0, so impossible. Count = 0. …
-
- TG EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-10-FN1 markMCQQ.Three persons A, B, C planned to have a running race among themselves. If the probability that A wins the race is thrice that of B and the probability that B wins the race is 23 times that of C, then the difference in probabilities of A and C to win the race is (A) 32 (B) 21 (C) 145 (D) 73
›Reveal solutionSolution
With P(A)=149, P(C)=142, the difference is P(A)−P(C)=21.
Let P(C)=p. Then P(B)=23p and P(A)=3P(B)=29p.
The three probabilities sum to 1 (one of them must win):
29p+23p+p=7p=1 ⇒ p=71.
Hence
P(A)=29⋅71=149,P(C)=71=142. …
- TG EAPCET 2022Set eng-2022-07-18-FN1 markMCQQ.Two balls are drawn at random from a bag containing 5 black balls and 3 white balls. If the random variable X denotes the number of white balls drawn, then the mean of X is (A) 21 (B) 85 (C) 43 (D) 83
›Reveal solutionSolution
The mean (expected value) of the number of white balls drawn when picking two balls without replacement from 5 black and 3 white balls is 43. The correct option is (C).
We are drawing two balls without replacement from a small finite set. The random variable X counts how many white balls appear. The mean (expected value) is just the average number of whites we’d see if we repeated the draw many times.
Key insight: Instead of listing all outcomes and probabilities, we can use the linearity of expectation. Each ball drawn is like a “mini-experiment”: define an indicator for whether the first ball is white, and another for the second. The expected number of whites is simply the sum of the probabilities that each individual draw yields a white ball. This works even though the draws are dependent — expectation adds regardless.
-
Define indicator variables
Let I1=1 if the first ball is white, 0 otherwise.
Let I2=1 if the second ball is white, 0 otherwise.
Then X=I1+I2.
-
Find the probability the first ball is white
Initially there are 3 white balls out of 8 total.
P(I1=1)=83.
- Find the probability the second ball is white By symmetry (or by the law of total probability), the chance the second ball is white is also 83. Why? Because without any information about the first draw, the second ball is equally likely to be any of the 8 original balls. So P(I2=1)=83. …
-
- TG EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-04-AN1 markMCQQ.In a Poisson distribution, if P(X=2)P(X=5)=75001 and P(X=3)P(X=5)=5001, then the mean of the distribution is (A) 151 (B) 51 (C) 251 (D) 31
›Reveal solutionSolution
The key idea is to use the ratio formulas for Poisson probabilities to eliminate the common factor and solve for the mean λ. The mean is found to be 1/5, so option (B) is correct.
The Poisson distribution has probability mass function
P(X=k)=k!e−λλk,k=0,1,2,…
where λ>0 is the mean. When we take ratios of probabilities, the factor e−λ cancels, leaving only powers of λ and factorials. This makes ratios a clean way to solve for λ without needing the actual probabilities.
- Write the given ratios in terms of λ.
P(X=2)P(X=5)=2!e−λλ25!e−λλ5=λ2/2λ5/120=60λ3
The problem states this equals 75001. So:
60λ3=75001
- Solve for λ3 from the first ratio. Multiply both sides by 60:
λ3=750060=1251
Hence λ=31251=51.
- Check consistency with the second ratio.
P(X=3)P(X=5)=λ3/6λ5/120=20λ2
Plug λ=1/5: …
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