Q.If P(A)=0.8, P(B)=0.5 and P(B∣A)=0.4, find
Concept understanding — Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
Roll a die and ask "what is the chance of an even number?" — that is 3/6. But suppose someone tells you the result is greater than 3. Now you are no longer looking at all six faces, only at {4,5,6}, and two of those (4 and 6) are even, so the probability becomes 2/3. That change — from the probability of A to the probability of A given that B has already occurred — is conditional probability.
The Idea: Shrink the Sample Space
Conditioning on B throws away every outcome where B is false and treats B as the new "whole world." You measure A only against what is still possible.
Think of filtering a table of data: unconditional probability uses every row; conditional probability keeps only the rows where the condition is true.
The Definition
For events A and B with P(B)>0,
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B).
We divide by P(B) to rescale so that B itself has probability 1; the surviving part of A is the overlap A∩B. Checking the die: P(A∩B)=P({4,6})=62 and P(B)=63, so P(A∣B)=3/62/6=32, matching the intuition.
Rearranging gives the multiplication rule P(A∩B)=P(A∣B)P(B), which is usually the easier way to compute a joint probability when a problem says "given that."
Two Cautions
- P(A∣B) and P(B∣A) are generally not equal; swapping them is the classic mistake. They are linked by Bayes' theorem, P(A∣B)=P(B)P(B∣A)P(A).
- If P(A∣B)=P(A), then knowing B tells you nothing about A — the events are independent. That is a special case, not the general rule.
Conditional probability is the foundation of the multiplication theorem, independence, and Bayes' theorem — every "given that" question in this chapter rests on it.
Conditional Probability opens the CBSE Class 12 Probability chapter and is foundational for everything that follows in that unit, including Bayes' theorem and the multiplication rule — making "conditional probability formula class 12 with examples" one of the most searched topics in Class 12 Mathematics. It is equally important for JEE Main and CUET, where conditional probability questions are set almost every year.
Concept: Conditional Probability — the probability of one event given that another has occurred.
Step 1: Find P(A∩B)
Using the definition of conditional probability:
P(B∣A)=P(A)P(A∩B)
So P(A∩B)=P(B∣A)⋅P(A)=0.4×0.8=0.32.
Step 2: Find P(A∣B)
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B)=0.50.32=0.64.
Step 3: Find P(A∪B)
Using the addition rule:
P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)=0.8+0.5−0.32=0.98.
- P(A∩B)=0.32,
- P(A∣B)=0.64,
- P(A∪B)=0.98.
Using the definition of conditional probability P(B∣A)=P(A)P(A∩B), we first find P(A∩B)=0.32. Then P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B)=0.64, and P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)=0.98.
The core idea here is conditional probability — the probability that event B happens given that event A has already occurred. The formula is:
P(B∣A)=P(A)P(A∩B)
This is not just a formula to plug numbers into; it’s a way of restricting the sample space. When we say “given A”, we only care about outcomes where A happens, so the probability of B inside that smaller world is the fraction of A that also contains B.
We are given P(A)=0.8, P(B)=0.5, and P(B∣A)=0.4. Notice that P(B∣A)=0.4 is less than P(B)=0.5, which tells us that A and B are not independent — knowing A actually makes B less likely. That’s a useful sanity check later.
Let’s work through each part step by step.
- Find P(A∩B) From the definition of conditional probability:
P(B∣A)=P(A)P(A∩B)
Multiply both sides by P(A):
P(A∩B)=P(B∣A)⋅P(A)=0.4×0.8=0.32
So the probability that both A and B occur is 0.32.
- Find P(A∣B) Now we reverse the conditioning. Using the same definition but swapping roles:
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B)
We already have P(A∩B)=0.32 and P(B)=0.5, so:
P(A∣B)=0.50.32=0.64
Notice that P(A∣B)=0.64 is less than P(A)=0.8, consistent with the earlier observation that A and B are negatively associated.
- Find P(A∪B) The union probability uses the inclusion-exclusion principle:
P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)
Substitute the known values:
P(A∪B)=0.8+0.5−0.32=0.98
This makes sense — since A and B are not mutually exclusive (their intersection is 0.32, not 0), the union is less than the sum 1.3 but still quite high.
A common mistake is to assume P(A∩B)=P(A)⋅P(B) without checking independence. Here 0.8×0.5=0.4, but the actual intersection is 0.32 — so A and B are not independent. Always use the conditional probability formula when P(B∣A) is given.
You can verify consistency: since P(A∩B)=0.32 and P(A)=0.8, the fraction of A that is also B is 0.32/0.8=0.4, which matches the given P(B∣A). Similarly, P(A∣B)=0.32/0.5=0.64 is the fraction of B that is also A. These cross-checks catch arithmetic errors.
The required values are P(A∩B)=0.32, P(A∣B)=0.64, and P(A∪B)=0.98.
Method: Chaining the multiplication, conditional and addition rules
Use this when a question supplies some of P(A),P(B),P(A∩B),P(A∣B),P(B∣A),P(A∪B) and asks for the rest — you unlock them one formula at a time.
Steps
Step 1: Get the intersection first (multiplication rule)
Almost every other quantity needs P(A∩B). Rearrange a given conditional probability into a product:
P(A∩B)=P(B∣A)P(A)=P(A∣B)P(B).
Use whichever conditional the question actually gives.
Step 2: Compute any conditional you still need
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B),P(B∣A)=P(A)P(A∩B).
Match the denominator to the event after the bar — swapping them is the classic error.
Step 3: Combine into the union (addition rule)
P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B).
Subtracting the intersection removes the double-count of the overlap.
Step 4: Cross-check independence
Independent events would satisfy P(A∩B)=P(A)P(B); if the computed intersection differs, the events are simply dependent — a useful consistency read, not a mistake.
Common Mistakes
Mistake 1: Assuming independence, P(A∩B)=P(A)P(B)=0.8×0.5=0.40.
Why it's wrong: P(B∣A)=0.4=P(B)=0.5, so A and B are not independent; you must use P(A∩B)=P(B∣A)P(A)=0.4×0.8=0.32. The independence product 0.40 is simply wrong here.
Mistake 2: Recovering P(A∩B) as P(B∣A)P(B) instead of P(B∣A)P(A).
Why it's wrong: since P(B∣A)=P(A)P(A∩B), the multiplication rule multiplies by P(A) — the event being conditioned on. Correct approach: 0.4×0.8=0.32.
Mistake 3: Confusing P(A∣B) with the given P(B∣A).
Why it's wrong: they have different denominators; P(A∣B)=0.50.32=0.64 while P(B∣A)=0.4. Reusing 0.4 for part (ii) is wrong.
Showing the 12 most recent of 30 on this concept.
- TG EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-09-FN1 markMCQQ.If P(A)=83, P(A∣B)=P(B∣A)=53, then P(A∩B)+P(B)= (A) 4021 (B) 132 (C) 143 (D) 125
›Reveal solutionSolution
We use the given conditional probabilities to set up equations for P(A∩B) and P(B), then solve and sum them. The result is 4021, which corresponds to option (A).
We are told:
- P(A)=83
- P(A∣B)=53
- P(B∣A)=53
We need P(A∩B)+P(B).
Concept and intuition
Conditional probabilities like P(A∣B) relate the probability of the complement of A given B to the joint probability P(A∩B). Since P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B), we can write an equation linking P(B) and P(A∩B). Similarly, P(B∣A) gives a relation between P(A) and P(A∩B). This lets us solve for the unknowns.
Step-by-step solution
- Use P(B∣A) to find P(A∩B) By definition:
P(B∣A)=P(A)P(B∩A)=53
Since P(B∩A)=P(A)−P(A∩B), we have:
P(A)P(A)−P(A∩B)=53
Substitute P(A)=83:
8383−P(A∩B)=53
Multiply both sides by 83:
83−P(A∩B)=53⋅83=409
So:
P(A∩B)=83−409=4015−409=406=203
- Use P(A∣B) to find P(B) By definition:
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B)=53
Now P(A∩B)=P(B)−P(A∩B). Substitute P(A∩B)=203:
P(B)P(B)−203=53
Multiply both sides by P(B):
P(B)−203=53P(B)
Bring terms together:
P(B)−53P(B)=203
52P(B)=203
So:
P(B)=203⋅25=4015=83
- Compute the required sum
P(A∩B)+P(B)=203+83=406+4015=4021
TipNotice that P(A)=P(B)=83 here — a nice symmetry that emerges from the given numbers.
Watch outA common mistake is to treat P(A∣B) as 1−P(A∣B) incorrectly — that works only if you adjust carefully. Always go back to the definition P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B).
✓Final answerThe correct option is (A).
ANSWER: A
- TG EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-02-AN1 markMCQQ.A, B1, B2, B3 are the events in a random experiment. If P(B1)=0.25, P(B2)=0.30, P(B3)=0.45, P(B1A)=0.05, P(B2A)=0.04, P(B3A)=0.03, then P(AB2)= (A) 196 (B) 198 (C) 1912 (D) 195
›Reveal solutionSolution
This is a classic Bayes’ theorem problem: we are given prior probabilities for three mutually exclusive events and the conditional probabilities of A given each, and we need the posterior probability of B2 given A. The answer is 196, which corresponds to option (A).
We start with the concept: Bayes’ theorem lets us “reverse” conditional probabilities. Here, we know P(A∣Bi) and want P(B2∣A). The key is that the Bi form a partition of the sample space (they are the only possible “causes” of A), so we can compute P(A) using the law of total probability, then apply Bayes’ formula.
-
Identify the given data
- P(B1)=0.25, P(B2)=0.30, P(B3)=0.45
- P(A∣B1)=0.05, P(A∣B2)=0.04, P(A∣B3)=0.03 The events B1,B2,B3 are mutually exclusive and exhaustive (their probabilities sum to 1), so they form a partition.
-
Compute the total probability of A
By the law of total probability:
P(A)=P(B1)P(A∣B1)+P(B2)P(A∣B2)+P(B3)P(A∣B3)
Substitute:
P(A)=(0.25)(0.05)+(0.30)(0.04)+(0.45)(0.03)
Calculate each term:
- 0.25×0.05=0.0125
- 0.30×0.04=0.0120
- 0.45×0.03=0.0135 Sum:
P(A)=0.0125+0.0120+0.0135=0.0380
- Apply Bayes’ theorem for P(B2∣A) Bayes’ theorem states:
P(B2∣A)=P(A)P(B2)P(A∣B2)
Plug in the numbers:
P(B2∣A)=0.03800.30×0.04=0.03800.0120
- Simplify the fraction Divide numerator and denominator by 0.002 (or multiply by 1000 to clear decimals):
0.03800.0120=3812=196
So P(B2∣A)=196.
TipA common pitfall is forgetting to compute P(A) correctly — students sometimes use only the numerator. Always check that the denominator is the total probability of A, not just one term.
✓Final answerThe correct option is (A).
ANSWER: A
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- TG EAPCET 2021Set eng-2021-08-04-FN1 markMCQQ.If P(BA)=103, P(AB)=54 and P(A∪B)=KP(B), then K1= (A) 4940 (B) 4340 (C) 101100 (D) 1
›Reveal solutionSolution
The key idea is to use the definitions of conditional probability to relate P(A∩B) to P(A) and P(B), then express P(A∪B) in terms of P(B) alone. The result is K1=4340.
We are given two conditional probabilities and a relation involving the union. The goal is to find K1, where P(A∪B)=KP(B). This is a problem about linking conditional probabilities to the basic probability of events, so we start by writing down what each conditional means.
Recall: P(A/B)=P(B)P(A∩B) and P(B/A)=P(A)P(A∩B). These are not symmetric — each gives a different ratio. Our job is to use them to find P(A) and P(A∩B) in terms of P(B), then compute P(A∪B).
- From P(A/B) we get P(A∩B) in terms of P(B).
P(A/B)=103⇒P(B)P(A∩B)=103
So
P(A∩B)=103P(B).
- From P(B/A) we get P(A) in terms of P(A∩B).
P(B/A)=54⇒P(A)P(A∩B)=54
Hence
P(A)=45P(A∩B).
- Substitute the expression for P(A∩B) from step 1 into step 2.
P(A)=45⋅103P(B)=4015P(B)=83P(B).
So P(A) is 83 of P(B).
- Now write P(A∪B) using the inclusion-exclusion formula.
P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B).
Substitute the expressions we have:
P(A∪B)=83P(B)+P(B)−103P(B).
- Combine the terms over a common denominator. The denominators are 8, 1, and 10. The LCM is 40. So:
83=4015,1=4040,103=4012.
Therefore:
P(A∪B)=(4015+4040−4012)P(B)=4043P(B).
- Compare with the given relation P(A∪B)=KP(B). We have P(A∪B)=4043P(B), so K=4043. Hence
K1=4340.
Watch outA common mistake is to treat P(A/B) and P(B/A) as if they were the same, or to forget that P(A∩B) appears in both but must be expressed consistently. Always write the definition first.
✓Final answerThe value is 4340, which corresponds to option (B).
- TG EAPCET 2022Set eng-2022-07-19-FN1 markMCQQ.If A and B are two events of a random experiment such that P(A)=32, P(B)=154 and P(A∩B)=51, then 195[P(B∣(A∪B))+P(A∪B)]= (A) 9 (B) 11 (C) 13 (D) 15
›Reveal solutionSolution
This problem requires us to calculate probabilities of various event combinations (complement, intersection, union) and a conditional probability using fundamental set theory identities. We then substitute these values into the given expression to find the final numerical result. The final value is 11.
To solve this problem, we need to systematically break down the given expression and calculate each probability term using the fundamental rules of probability and set theory. The key is to correctly apply the formulas for complements, unions, intersections, and conditional probabilities, often using set identities to simplify complex event descriptions.
Here's a step-by-step approach:
-
Determine P(A) from P(A):
The probability of an event A and its complement A always sum to 1.
P(A)+P(A)=1
Given P(A)=32, we can find P(A):
P(A)=1−P(A)=1−32=31.
-
Determine P(A∩B) using P(A∩B):
The event A can be partitioned into two mutually exclusive events: A∩B (A and B both occur) and A∩B (A occurs, but B does not).
P(A)=P(A∩B)+P(A∩B)
We are given P(A∩B)=51 and we found P(A)=31.
So, P(A∩B)=P(A)−P(A∩B)=31−51.
To subtract these fractions, we find a common denominator, which is 15:
P(A∩B)=155−153=152.
-
Calculate P(A∪B):
The probability of the union of two events A and B is given by the addition rule.
P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)
We have P(A)=31, P(B)=154 (given), and P(A∩B)=152 (from Step 2).
P(A∪B)=31+154−152.
Using a common denominator of 15:
P(A∪B)=155+154−152=155+4−2=157.
This is the first part of the sum inside the square root.
-
Prepare for P(B∣(A∪B)): Identify the intersection term:
The conditional probability P(X∣Y) is defined as P(Y)P(X∩Y). Here, X=B and Y=(A∪B).
So, we need to find P(B∩(A∪B)).
Using the distributive property of set intersection over union:
B∩(A∪B)=(B∩A)∪(B∩B).
The event B∩B means that event B occurs AND event B does NOT occur, which is impossible. Thus, B∩B=∅.
So, B∩(A∪B)=(B∩A)∪∅=B∩A.
Therefore, P(B∩(A∪B))=P(A∩B).
From Step 2, we know P(A∩B)=152. This is the numerator for our conditional probability.
-
Prepare for P(B∣(A∪B)): Calculate P(B):
Similar to Step 1, we use the complement rule for event B.
P(B)=1−P(B).
Given P(B)=154:
P(B)=1−154=1515−4=1511.
-
Prepare for P(B∣(A∪B)): Calculate P(A∪B):
This is the denominator for our conditional probability. We use the addition rule for A and B.
P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)
We have P(A)=31 (from Step 1), P(B)=1511 (from Step 5), and P(A∩B)=51 (given).
P(A∪B)=31+1511−51.
Using a common denominator of 15:
P(A∪B)=155+1511−153=155+11−3=1513.
-
Calculate P(B∣(A∪B)):
Now we have both the numerator and the denominator for the conditional probability.
P(X∣Y)=P(Y)P(X∩Y)
P(B∣(A∪B))=P(A∪B)P(B∩(A∪B))=P(A∪B)P(A∩B).
Substituting the values from Step 4 and Step 6:
P(B∣(A∪B))=13/152/15=132.
This is the second part of the sum inside the square root.
-
Calculate the sum inside the square root:
We need to find P(B∣(A∪B))+P(A∪B).
From Step 7, P(B∣(A∪B))=132.
From Step 3, P(A∪B)=157.
Sum =132+157.
To add these fractions, find a common denominator, which is 13×15=195.
Sum =13×152×15+15×137×13=19530+19591=19530+91=195121.
-
Calculate the final expression:
The expression we need to evaluate is 195[P(B∣(A∪B))+P(A∪B)].
Substitute the sum we just calculated:
195×195121.
The 195 in the numerator and denominator cancel out:
121.
121=11.
The final value is 11. Comparing this with the given options, it matches option (B).
✓Final answerThe value of the expression is 11.
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- TG EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-02-AN1 markMCQQ.Let P=147258369 be a matrix. Three elements of this matrix P are selected at random. A is the event of having the three elements whose sum is odd. B is the event of selecting the three elements which are in a row or column. Then P(A)+P(BA)= (A) 420221 (B) 2117 (C) 2021 (D) 23
›Reveal solutionSolution
We compute the probability that three randomly chosen entries sum to an odd number, then the conditional probability of that event given they lie in a single row or column, and add them. The result simplifies to 2117, which is option (B).
Concept & Intuition
The matrix has 9 entries. We pick 3 of them uniformly at random.
- For event A (odd sum), we need to count how many triples have an odd total. Since odd/even depends only on parity, we first classify the 9 numbers by parity: 1,3,5,7,9 are odd (5 odds); 2,4,6,8 are even (4 evens). The sum of three numbers is odd iff we have an odd number of odd entries among them — i.e., 1 or 3 odds.
- For event B (all in one row or one column), we count triples that lie entirely in a single row (3 rows, each row has 3 entries → 1 triple per row) or entirely in a single column (3 columns, each column has 3 entries → 1 triple per column). That gives 3+3=6 triples.
- Then P(A/B) is the fraction of those 6 triples that also have an odd sum.
We compute both probabilities and add them.
Step-by-step
- Total number of ways to choose 3 entries from 9
(39)=84.
- Count triples with odd sum (event A)
- Case 1: exactly 1 odd, 2 evens Choose 1 odd from 5 odds: (15)=5 Choose 2 evens from 4 evens: (24)=6 Total: 5×6=30 triples.
- Case 2: exactly 3 odds, 0 evens Choose 3 odds from 5 odds: (35)=10 Total: 10 triples.
- So ∣A∣=30+10=40. Hence
P(A)=8440=2110.
- Count triples in a row or column (event B)
- Rows: 3 rows, each row has exactly 1 triple (all three entries). So 3 triples.
- Columns: 3 columns, each column has exactly 1 triple. So 3 triples.
- Total: ∣B∣=6. Hence
P(B)=846=141.
-
Count triples that are both in a row/column AND have odd sum (event A∩B)
Check each row and column for odd sum:
- Row 1: {1,2,3} → sum = 6 (even) → not in A.
- Row 2: {4,5,6} → sum = 15 (odd) → in A.
- Row 3: {7,8,9} → sum = 24 (even) → not in A.
- Column 1: {1,4,7} → sum = 12 (even) → not in A.
- Column 2: {2,5,8} → sum = 15 (odd) → in A.
- Column 3: {3,6,9} → sum = 18 (even) → not in A. So exactly 2 triples (row 2 and column 2) satisfy both. Hence ∣A∩B∣=2.
-
Conditional probability P(A/B)
P(A/B)=∣B∣∣A∩B∣=62=31.
- Add the two probabilities
P(A)+P(A/B)=2110+31=2110+217=2117.
TipA common mistake is to compute P(A/B) using the full sample space instead of restricting to B. Always remember: conditional probability uses only the outcomes in B as the denominator.
✓Final answerThe correct option is (B).
ANSWER: B
- TG EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-10-AN1 markMCQQ.A card is drawn randomly from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards. If A is the event of getting a diamond card and B is the event of getting an ace card, then the probability that exactly one of the events among A and B to occur is (A) 5215 (B) 134 (C) 5217 (D) 135
›Reveal solutionSolution
The probability that exactly one of the events A (diamond) or B (ace) occurs is the sum of their individual probabilities minus twice the probability of both occurring. The result is 5215, which corresponds to option (A).
We want the probability that exactly one of the two events happens — that is, either we draw a diamond that is not an ace, or we draw an ace that is not a diamond. This is a classic "exclusive or" (XOR) situation.
Why this approach works:
If we simply add P(A)+P(B), we count the case where both occur (the ace of diamonds) twice. To get exactly one, we subtract that double-counted overlap once more than usual — hence P(A)+P(B)−2P(A∩B).
-
Identify the probabilities of each event individually.
- There are 13 diamonds in a deck of 52, so P(A)=5213=41.
- There are 4 aces, so P(B)=524=131.
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Find the probability that both events occur (the intersection).
- Only one card is both a diamond and an ace: the ace of diamonds.
- So P(A∩B)=521.
-
Apply the formula for exactly one event.
- Exactly one of A or B occurs means: (A and not B) or (B and not A).
- The probability is:
P(exactly one)=P(A)+P(B)−2P(A∩B)
- Substitute the values:
5213+524−2⋅521=5213+4−2=5215
- Check against the options.
- 5215 matches option (A).
- For completeness: 134=5216, 5217, and 135=5220 are all different.
TipA quick sanity check: The probability of exactly one is also P(A)+P(B)−2P(A∩B). Many students mistakenly use P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B), which gives "at least one" instead of "exactly one."
Watch outA common pitfall is forgetting to subtract the intersection twice. If you only subtract it once, you get 5216=134, which is option (B) — the probability of at least one, not exactly one.
✓Final answerThe correct option is (A).
ANSWER: A
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- TG EAPCET 2023Set eng-2023-05-13-AN1 markMCQQ.If X is a Poisson variate satisfying the condition 3P(x=2)=P(x=4) then P(x=6)= (A) 5e6162 (B) 5e6108 (C) 5e6324 (D) 5e6648
›Reveal solutionSolution
The key idea is to use the Poisson probability mass function P(X=k)=k!e−λλk, set up the given condition 3P(X=2)=P(X=4), solve for λ, then compute P(X=6) and match it to one of the options. The final result is 5e6324, which corresponds to option (C).
We start with the Poisson distribution. A Poisson random variable X with mean λ has probability mass function
P(X=k)=k!e−λλk,k=0,1,2,…
The problem gives a relationship between P(X=2) and P(X=4). This lets us solve for λ, the only unknown parameter. Once we know λ, we can compute P(X=6) directly.
- Write the given condition in terms of λ. We have 3P(X=2)=P(X=4). Substituting the Poisson formula:
3⋅2!e−λλ2=4!e−λλ4
- Cancel the common factor e−λ (since e−λ>0 for any finite λ). This gives:
3⋅2λ2=24λ4
- Simplify both sides. Left: 3⋅2λ2=23λ2. Right: 24λ4. So:
23λ2=24λ4
- Solve for λ. Multiply both sides by 24:
24⋅23λ2=λ4⇒36λ2=λ4
Rearranging:
λ4−36λ2=0⇒λ2(λ2−36)=0
Since λ>0 for a Poisson distribution (mean cannot be zero if we have nonzero probabilities for k=2,4), we take λ2=36, so λ=6.
TipA common mistake is to forget that λ must be positive. The solution λ=0 would make all probabilities zero except P(X=0)=1, which doesn't satisfy the given equation meaningfully.
- Now compute P(X=6) with λ=6.
P(X=6)=6!e−6⋅66
- Simplify 66 and 6!. 66=46656 (or keep as 66). 6!=720. So:
P(X=6)=720e−6⋅46656
- Reduce the fraction. Divide numerator and denominator by 144 (since 46656÷144=324 and 720÷144=5):
P(X=6)=5324⋅e−6=5e6324
Watch outWatch out: e−6 is often written as 1/e6, so the answer is 5e6324, not 5324e6 or something similar.
- Match with the options. The expression 5e6324 corresponds exactly to option (C).
✓Final answerThe correct option is (C).
ANSWER: C
- TG EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-10-FN1 markMCQQ.Three persons A, B, C planned to have a running race among themselves. If the probability that A wins the race is thrice that of B and the probability that B wins the race is 23 times that of C, then the difference in probabilities of A and C to win the race is (A) 32 (B) 21 (C) 145 (D) 73
›Reveal solutionSolution
With P(A)=149, P(C)=142, the difference is P(A)−P(C)=21.
Let P(C)=p. Then P(B)=23p and P(A)=3P(B)=29p.
The three probabilities sum to 1 (one of them must win):
29p+23p+p=7p=1 ⇒ p=71.
Hence
P(A)=29⋅71=149,P(C)=71=142.
The required difference is
P(A)−P(C)=149−142=147=21.
✓Final answerThe difference in the winning probabilities of A and C is 21 — option (B).
- TG EAPCET 2022Set eng-2022-07-20-AN1 markMCQQ.If X is a Poisson variate such that 35k=P(X=2)=P(X=3), then P(X=5)= (A) k (B) 41k (C) 21k (D) 43k
›Reveal solutionSolution
We use the Poisson Probability Mass Function to equate P(X=2) and P(X=3), which allows us to determine the parameter λ. Once λ is known, we can express P(X=5) in terms of k. The result is P(X=5)=43k.
The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that models the number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space, given a constant average rate of occurrence and independence of events. It is characterized by a single parameter, λ (lambda), which represents the average number of events in the given interval.
The core idea here is to use the given equality of probabilities, P(X=2)=P(X=3), to find the value of this parameter λ. Once λ is known, we can calculate any other probability P(X=x) using the Poisson Probability Mass Function (PMF). We are also given a relationship involving k, which we will use to express our final answer in terms of k.
-
Recall the Poisson Probability Mass Function (PMF):
For a Poisson variate X with parameter λ, the probability of observing exactly x events is given by:
P(X=x)=x!e−λλx
where x=0,1,2,… and λ>0.
-
Use the given condition P(X=2)=P(X=3) to find λ:
Substitute x=2 and x=3 into the PMF:
P(X=2)=2!e−λλ2
P(X=3)=3!e−λλ3
Equating these two probabilities:
2!e−λλ2=3!e−λλ3
Since e−λ is never zero and λ must be positive (as probabilities are non-zero), we can divide both sides by e−λλ2:
2!1=3!λ
Recall that 2!=2×1=2 and 3!=3×2×1=6.
21=6λ
Multiply both sides by 6 to solve for λ:
λ=26=3
So, the parameter of the Poisson distribution is λ=3.
-
Express k in terms of λ (and e−λ):
We are given that 35k=P(X=2).
We know P(X=2)=2!e−λλ2. Substitute λ=3:
P(X=2)=2e−332=29e−3
Now, equate this to 35k:
35k=29e−3
Solve for k:
k=53×29e−3=1027e−3
-
Calculate P(X=5) using λ=3:
Using the PMF for x=5:
P(X=5)=5!e−λλ5
Substitute λ=3:
P(X=5)=5!e−335
Calculate 35=243 and 5!=5×4×3×2×1=120.
P(X=5)=120e−3⋅243
Simplify the fraction 120243 by dividing both numerator and denominator by their greatest common divisor, which is 3:
P(X=5)=4081e−3
-
Express P(X=5) in terms of k:
From Step 3, we have k=1027e−3.
From Step 4, we have P(X=5)=4081e−3.
We need to find a relationship between 4081e−3 and 1027e−3.
Notice that 81=3×27 and 40=4×10.
So, we can rewrite P(X=5) as:
P(X=5)=4×103×(27e−3)=43(1027e−3)
Substitute the expression for k:
P(X=5)=43k
-
Compare with the given options:
The calculated value P(X=5)=43k matches option (D).
✓Final answerThe value of P(X=5) is 43k.
-
- TG EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-09-AN1 markMCQQ.In a Poisson distribution with parameter λ, if 5P(X=3)=P(X=5), then P(X=2)= (A) e525 (B) e1050 (C) e630 (D) e840
›Reveal solutionSolution
The key idea is to use the Poisson probability formula P(X=k)=k!e−λλk and the given relation 5P(X=3)=P(X=5) to solve for λ, then compute P(X=2). The final answer is e1050, which corresponds to option (B).
The Poisson distribution models the number of events in a fixed interval when events occur independently at a constant average rate λ. The probability mass function is P(X=k)=k!e−λλk for k=0,1,2,…. Here, the condition 5P(X=3)=P(X=5) gives a direct equation in λ because the e−λ factor cancels, leaving a simple algebraic relation. Once λ is found, plugging into P(X=2) yields the answer.
- Write the given condition using the Poisson formula:
5⋅3!e−λλ3=5!e−λλ5
The factor e−λ cancels on both sides (since λ is finite), giving:
5⋅6λ3=120λ5
- Simplify the equation. Multiply both sides by 120 to clear denominators:
5⋅6λ3⋅120=λ5
Compute 120/6=20, so 5⋅20⋅λ3=λ5, i.e., 100λ3=λ5.
- Assuming λ>0 (since it's a rate parameter), divide both sides by λ3:
100=λ2
Hence λ=10 (we take the positive root because λ is a mean, always positive).
Watch outA common mistake is to forget that λ must be positive. Also, do not cancel λ3 if λ=0 — but λ=0 would make all probabilities zero, which contradicts the given relation (since P(X=3) and P(X=5) would both be zero, making 5⋅0=0 trivially true, but that degenerate case is not intended in such problems). Always check that the solution makes physical sense.
- Now compute P(X=2) with λ=10:
P(X=2)=2!e−10⋅102=2e−10⋅100=50e−10
- Write e−10 as e101, so:
P(X=2)=e1050
TipNotice that the answer choices are all of the form eintegerinteger. Once you find λ=10, the denominator e10 immediately points to option (B). This can be a quick sanity check.
✓Final answerThe value is e1050, which corresponds to option (B).
- TG EAPCET 2022Set eng-2022-07-18-FN1 markMCQQ.Two balls are drawn at random from a bag containing 5 black balls and 3 white balls. If the random variable X denotes the number of white balls drawn, then the mean of X is (A) 21 (B) 85 (C) 43 (D) 83
›Reveal solutionSolution
The mean (expected value) of the number of white balls drawn when picking two balls without replacement from 5 black and 3 white balls is 43. The correct option is (C).
We are drawing two balls without replacement from a small finite set. The random variable X counts how many white balls appear. The mean (expected value) is just the average number of whites we’d see if we repeated the draw many times.
Key insight: Instead of listing all outcomes and probabilities, we can use the linearity of expectation. Each ball drawn is like a “mini-experiment”: define an indicator for whether the first ball is white, and another for the second. The expected number of whites is simply the sum of the probabilities that each individual draw yields a white ball. This works even though the draws are dependent — expectation adds regardless.
-
Define indicator variables
Let I1=1 if the first ball is white, 0 otherwise.
Let I2=1 if the second ball is white, 0 otherwise.
Then X=I1+I2.
-
Find the probability the first ball is white
Initially there are 3 white balls out of 8 total.
P(I1=1)=83.
- Find the probability the second ball is white By symmetry (or by the law of total probability), the chance the second ball is white is also 83. Why? Because without any information about the first draw, the second ball is equally likely to be any of the 8 original balls. So
P(I2=1)=83.
- Apply linearity of expectation
E[X]=E[I1+I2]=E[I1]+E[I2]=83+83=86=43.
TipA common pitfall is to think the second draw’s probability changes because the first draw removed a ball. But without conditioning on the first result, the second draw still has a 83 chance of being white — symmetry saves us.
Watch outDo not compute the distribution of X from scratch unless you enjoy extra work. The direct method (listing P(X=0),P(X=1),P(X=2)) gives the same answer but is slower. Here, linearity makes it a one-liner.
✓Final answerThe correct option is (C).
ANSWER: C
-
- TG EAPCET 2024Set eng-2024-05-09-FN1 markMCQQ.If the probability that a student selected at random from a particular college is good at mathematics is 0.6, then the probability of having two students who are good at mathematics in a group of 8 students of that college standing in front of the college is (A) 5826×32×7 (B) 5626×32×7 (C) 5628×32×7 (D) 5828×32×7
›Reveal solutionSolution
This is a binomial trial with n=8, p=0.6. P(X=2)=(28)(0.6)2(0.4)6=5828×32×7, option (D).
Binomial model
Each student is independently good at mathematics with probability p=0.6=53, so q=0.4=52. For n=8 students, the number good at mathematics is binomial, and we want exactly two:
P(X=2)=(28)p2q6=(28)(53)2(52)6.
Simplify
(28)=28,(53)2=5232,(52)6=5626.
P(X=2)=28⋅5232⋅5626=5828⋅32⋅26.
Write 28=22×7:
=5822×7×32×26=5828×32×7.
✓Final answerP(exactly two)=5828×32×7. The correct option is (D).
ANSWER: D
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