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Q.If P(not A)=0.7P(\text{not } A) = 0.7, P(B)=0.7P(B) = 0.7 and P(B/A)=0.5P(B/A) = 0.5, then find P(A/B)P(A/B).

CBSECBSE Class XII Board 2019Subjective· 2mImportance★★★★★
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Using the definition of conditional probability and the complement rule, we find P(A/B)=314P(A/B) = \frac{3}{14}.

The key here is to connect what we know — the probability of "not A", the probability of B, and the conditional probability of B given A — to find the reverse conditional probability P(A/B)P(A/B). This is a classic application of the definition of conditional probability and the complement rule.

Concept and intuition:

Conditional probability P(B/A)P(B/A) tells us the chance of B happening if A has already occurred. To find P(A/B)P(A/B), we need the probability that both A and B occur together, divided by the probability of B. The given P(not A)P(\text{not } A) lets us find P(A)P(A), and then P(A∩B)P(A \cap B) comes from P(B/A)×P(A)P(B/A) \times P(A). Once we have P(A∩B)P(A \cap B), the answer is straightforward.

Let’s work through it step by step.

  1. Find P(A)P(A) from the complement. We are given P(not A)=0.7P(\text{not } A) = 0.7. Since P(A)+P(not A)=1P(A) + P(\text{not } A) = 1,

P(A)=1−0.7=0.3.P(A) = 1 - 0.7 = 0.3.

  1. Use P(B/A)P(B/A) to find P(A∩B)P(A \cap B). By definition, P(B/A)=P(A∩B)P(A)P(B/A) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)}. We know P(B/A)=0.5P(B/A) = 0.5 and P(A)=0.3P(A) = 0.3, so

0.5=P(A∩B)0.3.0.5 = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{0.3}.

Multiplying both sides by 0.3 gives

P(A∩B)=0.5×0.3=0.15.P(A \cap B) = 0.5 \times 0.3 = 0.15.

  1. Now find P(A/B)P(A/B). Again by definition, P(A/B)=P(A∩B)P(B)P(A/B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}. We have P(A∩B)=0.15P(A \cap B) = 0.15 and P(B)=0.7P(B) = 0.7, so …

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