Q.Case Study -3 Excessive use of screens can result in vision problems, obesity, sleep disorders, anxiety, low retention problems and can impede social and emotional comprehension and expression. It is essential to be mindful of the amount of time we spend on scree ns and to reduce our screen -time b y taking regular breaks, setting time limits, and engaging in non-screen-based activities. In a class of students of the age group 14 to 17, the students were categorised into three groups according to a feedback form filled by them. The first group constituted of the students who spent more than 4 hours per day on the mobile screen or the gaming screens, while the second group spent 2 to 4 hours /day on the same activities. The third group spent less than 2 hours /day on the same. The first group with the high screen time is 60% of all the students, whereas the second group with moderate screen time is 30% and the third group with low screen time is only 10% of the total number of stu dents. It was observed that 80% students of first group faced severe anxiety and low retention issues, with 70% of second group, and 30% of third group having the same symptoms. I. What is the total percentage of students who suffer from anxiety and low retention issues in the class? [2] II. A student is selected at random, and he is found to suffer from anxiety and low retention issues. What is the probability that he/she spends screen time more than 4 hours per day? [2] 4
This is a classic Bayes' theorem problem disguised as a health survey. We first compute the overall prevalence of anxiety/low retention using the law of total probability (weighted average of group rates), then reverse the conditional probability to find the chance that a symptomatic student comes from the high-screen-time group. The final answers are 66% and ≈ 72.73% respectively.
Why this approach works
The data gives us two layers of information: the distribution of students across three screen-time groups, and the conditional probability of having symptoms within each group. When a question asks for the overall percentage of students with symptoms, we are combining these layers — a weighted average where each group's symptom rate is weighted by its size. That is the law of total probability.
The second question flips the perspective: given that a student has symptoms, what is the chance they belong to a particular group? This is the essence of Bayes' theorem — we use the overall symptom rate (just computed) to "reverse" the conditional probability.
A quick way to check your work: the three group sizes (60%, 30%, 10%) and their symptom rates (80%, 70%, 30%) are all nice percentages. The overall rate must lie between 30% and 80%, weighted toward the larger groups. 66% feels right — closer to 80% than to 30% because the high-screen group dominates.
Step-by-step solution
Step 1: Define the events clearly
Let:
- = student spends more than 4 hours/day (high screen time)
- = student spends 2 to 4 hours/day (moderate screen time)
- = student spends less than 2 hours/day (low screen time)
- = student suffers from anxiety and low retention issues
From the problem:
And the conditional probabilities (symptom rates within each group):
Step 2: Find the total percentage of students with symptoms (Part I)
The law of total probability says:
Substitute the values:
Compute each term:
Add them up:
So 66% of all students suffer from anxiety and low retention issues.
A common mistake is to simply average the three percentages: . That would only be correct if the three groups were equal in size. Because the high-screen group is much larger (60% vs 10%), the overall rate is pulled toward 80%, not toward the middle.
Step 3: Find the probability that a symptomatic student is from the high-screen group (Part II)
We want — the probability that a student belongs to group , given that they have symptoms. Bayes' theorem gives:
We already have all three numbers:
So:
Simplify the fraction. Divide numerator and denominator by 0.06:
As a decimal:
That is 72.73% (or ).
| Group | % of class | Symptom rate | Contribution to |
|-------|------------|--------------|------------------------|
| High () | 60% | 80% | 48% |
| Moderate () | 30% | 70% | 21% |
| Low () | 10% | 30% | 3% |
| Total | 100% | — | 66% |
Notice that the high-screen group contributes 48 out of the 66 total percentage points of symptoms. That ratio is exactly the answer to Part II.
The total percentage of students with anxiety and low retention issues is 66%, and the probability that a randomly selected symptomatic student spends more than 4 hours per day on screens is (approximately 72.73%).
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