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Q.If E and F are two independent events such that P(E)=23P(E) = \frac{2}{3}, P(F)=37P(F) = \frac{3}{7}, then P(E/Fˉ)P(E/\bar{F}) is equal to :
(A) 16\frac{1}{6}
(B) 12\frac{1}{2}
(C) 23\frac{2}{3}
(D) 79\frac{7}{9}

CBSECBSE Class XII Board 2025MCQ· 1mImportance★★★★★
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For independent events, conditioning on the complement of one event does not change the probability of the other. Since EE and FF are independent, P(E∣Fˉ)=P(E)=23P(E \mid \bar{F}) = P(E) = \frac{2}{3}, which corresponds to option (C).

Why conditional probability and independence work together

The notation P(E/Fˉ)P(E / \bar{F}) means P(E∣Fˉ)P(E \mid \bar{F}) — the probability that EE occurs, given that FF does not occur. The natural instinct is to reach for the conditional probability formula:

P(E∣Fˉ)=P(E∩Fˉ)P(Fˉ)P(E \mid \bar{F}) = \frac{P(E \cap \bar{F})}{P(\bar{F})}

But here’s the key: independence between EE and FF tells us something deeper. If two events are independent, then knowing whether FF happened gives you zero information about EE. That intuition extends to the complement too — if FF doesn’t happen, it still tells you nothing about EE.

So before doing any heavy algebra, we can already guess: the answer should be exactly P(E)P(E), unchanged.


Step-by-step reasoning

  1. State what independence means mathematically. For independent events EE and FF:

P(E∩F)=P(E)⋅P(F)P(E \cap F) = P(E) \cdot P(F)

This is the definition. But independence also implies that EE is independent of Fˉ\bar{F} — because if FF gives no information about EE, then not-FF also gives no information. We can prove this quickly.

  1. Find P(E∩Fˉ)P(E \cap \bar{F}) using the complement relationship. Any event EE can be split into two disjoint parts: when FF happens and when FF does not happen.

E=(E∩F)∪(E∩Fˉ)E = (E \cap F) \cup (E \cap \bar{F})

Since these two are mutually exclusive:

P(E)=P(E∩F)+P(E∩Fˉ)P(E) = P(E \cap F) + P(E \cap \bar{F})

Substitute P(E∩F)=P(E)P(F)P(E \cap F) = P(E)P(F):

23=(23⋅37)+P(E∩Fˉ)\frac{2}{3} = \left(\frac{2}{3} \cdot \frac{3}{7}\right) + P(E \cap \bar{F})

23=27+P(E∩Fˉ)\frac{2}{3} = \frac{2}{7} + P(E \cap \bar{F})

P(E∩Fˉ)=23−27=14−621=821P(E \cap \bar{F}) = \frac{2}{3} - \frac{2}{7} = \frac{14 - 6}{21} = \frac{8}{21}

  1. Find P(Fˉ)P(\bar{F}). …

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