Fit a straight-line trend by the method of least squares to the data below and estimate the trend value for 2018.
| Year | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit (Rs lakh) | 22 | 23 | 27 | 31 | 35 | 42 |
There are years (even), so there is no middle year. Put the origin midway between 2014 and 2015 and use a half-year unit, giving the consecutive odd codes ; then .
| Year | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 22 | 25 | ||
| 2013 | 23 | 9 | ||
| 2014 | 27 | 1 | ||
| 2015 | 31 | 1 | 31 | 1 |
| 2016 | 35 | 3 | 105 | 9 |
| 2017 | 42 | 5 | 210 | 25 |
| Total | 180 | 0 | 140 | 70 |
Hence
The trend line is , where one -unit is half a year. Since one full year equals units of , the trend rises by Rs 4 lakh per year.
Estimate for 2018. From the origin (mid-2014/2015), the middle of 2018 is years ahead half-year units, so and .
Independent check. Positive-side products ; negative-side ; , matching the table, so . The trend values (from ) sum to , confirming the fit.
Trend line ( in half-years, origin midway between 2014 and 2015). Trend value for 2018 () Rs 44 lakh.
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