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Exercises · Q8
Q.

Fit a straight-line trend by the method of least squares to the data below and estimate the trend value for 2018.

Year201220132014201520162017
Profit (Rs lakh)222327313542
Maharashtra MsbshseTextbookSubjectiveImportance★★★★★
8% · 2/25 Questions
✓ Free question

There are n=6n = 6 years (even), so there is no middle year. Put the origin midway between 2014 and 2015 and use a half-year unit, giving the consecutive odd codes X=−5,−3,−1,1,3,5X = -5, -3, -1, 1, 3, 5; then ∑X=0\sum X = 0.

YearYYXXXYXYX2X^2
201222−5-5−110-11025
201323−3-3−69-699
201427−1-1−27-271
2015311311
20163531059
201742521025
Total180014070

Hence

a=∑Yn=1806=30,b=∑XY∑X2=14070=2.a = \frac{\sum Y}{n} = \frac{180}{6} = 30, \qquad b = \frac{\sum XY}{\sum X^2} = \frac{140}{70} = 2.

The trend line is Yt=30+2XY_t = 30 + 2X, where one XX-unit is half a year. Since one full year equals 22 units of XX, the trend rises by 2b=2×2=2b = 2 \times 2 = Rs 4 lakh per year.

Estimate for 2018. From the origin (mid-2014/2015), the middle of 2018 is 3.53.5 years ahead =7= 7 half-year units, so X=7X = 7 and Yt=30+2(7)=44Y_t = 30 + 2(7) = 44.

Independent check. Positive-side products 31+105+210=34631 + 105 + 210 = 346; negative-side 110+69+27=206110 + 69 + 27 = 206; ∑XY=346−206=140\sum XY = 346 - 206 = 140, matching the table, so b=2b = 2. The trend values 20,24,28,32,36,4020, 24, 28, 32, 36, 40 (from X=−5,…,5X = -5,\ldots,5) sum to 180=∑Y180 = \sum Y, confirming the fit.

✓Final answer

Trend line Yt=30+2XY_t = 30 + 2X (XX in half-years, origin midway between 2014 and 2015). Trend value for 2018 (X=7X = 7) == Rs 44 lakh.

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