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Exercise 12.3 · Q10

Q.Given P(A)=0.4P(A) = 0.4 and P(A∪B)=0.7P(A\cup B) = 0.7. Find P(B)P(B) if

(i) AA and BB are mutually exclusive
(ii) AA and BB are independent events
(iii) P(A/B)=0.4P(A/B) = 0.4
(iv) P(B/A)=0.5P(B/A) = 0.5.
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Given throughout. P(A)=0.4P(A)=0.4, P(A∪B)=0.7P(A\cup B)=0.7.

Step 1. Part (i) -- mutually exclusive. P(A∩B)=0P(A\cap B)=0, so P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)P(A\cup B)=P(A)+P(B): 0.7=0.4+P(B) ⇒ P(B)=0.30.7=0.4+P(B)\ \Rightarrow\ P(B)=0.3.

Step 2. Part (ii) -- independent. P(A∩B)=P(A)P(B)P(A\cap B)=P(A)P(B), so P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A)P(B)P(A\cup B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A)P(B): 0.7=0.4+P(B)−0.4P(B)=0.4+0.6P(B)0.7=0.4+P(B)-0.4P(B)=0.4+0.6P(B), giving P(B)=0.30.6=0.5P(B)=\dfrac{0.3}{0.6}=0.5.

Step 3. Part (iii) -- P(A/B)=0.4P(A/B)=0.4. Then P(A∩B)=P(A/B)⋅P(B)=0.4P(B)P(A\cap B)=P(A/B)\cdot P(B)=0.4P(B). Substitute into the Addition Theorem: 0.7=0.4+P(B)−0.4P(B)=0.4+0.6P(B)0.7=0.4+P(B)-0.4P(B)=0.4+0.6P(B), giving P(B)=0.5P(B)=0.5 again. …

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