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Exercise 12.3 · Q9

Q.Two thirds of the students in a class are boys and the rest are girls. It is known that the probability of a girl getting a first grade is 0.85 and that of a boy is 0.70. Find the probability that a student chosen at random will get first grade marks.

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Step 1. Given. P(boy)=23P(\text{boy})=\dfrac23, P(girl)=13P(\text{girl})=\dfrac13; P(first grade/girl)=0.85P(\text{first grade}/\text{girl})=0.85, P(first grade/boy)=0.70P(\text{first grade}/\text{boy})=0.70.

Step 2. Combine via the Multiplication/weighted-average rule. P(first grade)=P(boy)⋅P(first grade/boy)+P(girl)⋅P(first grade/girl)P(\text{first grade})=P(\text{boy})\cdot P(\text{first grade}/\text{boy})+P(\text{girl})\cdot P(\text{first grade}/\text{girl}) …

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