Q.In answering a question on a multiple choice test, a student either knows the answer or guesses. Let $\frac{3}{4}$ be the probability that he knows the answer and $\frac{1}{4}$ be the probability that he guesses. Assuming that a student who guesses at the answer will be correct with probability $\frac{1}{4}$. What is the probability that the student knows the answer given that he answered it correctly?

Showing the 12 most recent of 30 on this concept.

1. TG EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-02-AN1 markMCQ
   Q.A, $B_1$, $B_2$, $B_3$ are the events in a random experiment. If $P(B_1) = 0.25$, $P(B_2) = 0.30$, $P(B_3) = 0.45$, $P\left(\dfrac{A}{B_1}\right) = 0.05$, $P\left(\dfrac{A}{B_2}\right) = 0.04$, $P\left(\dfrac{A}{B_3}\right) = 0.03$, then $P\left(\dfrac{B_2}{A}\right) =$ (A) $\dfrac{6}{19}$ (B) $\dfrac{8}{19}$ (C) $\dfrac{12}{19}$ (D) $\dfrac{5}{19}$

   ›Reveal solutionSolution

   This is a classic Bayes’ theorem problem: we are given prior probabilities for three mutually exclusive events and the conditional probabilities of A given each, and we need the posterior probability of $B_2$ given A. The answer is $\frac{6}{19}$, which corresponds to option (A).

   We start with the concept: Bayes’ theorem lets us “reverse” conditional probabilities. Here, we know $P(A \mid B_i)$ and want $P(B_2 \mid A)$. The key is that the $B_i$ form a partition of the sample space (they are the only possible “causes” of A), so we can compute $P(A)$ using the law of total probability, then apply Bayes’ formula.

   1. Identify the given data

      • $P(B_1) = 0.25$, $P(B_2) = 0.30$, $P(B_3) = 0.45$
      • $P(A \mid B_1) = 0.05$, $P(A \mid B_2) = 0.04$, $P(A \mid B_3) = 0.03$ The events $B_1, B_2, B_3$ are mutually exclusive and exhaustive (their probabilities sum to 1), so they form a partition.

   2. Compute the total probability of A

      By the law of total probability:

   $P(A) = P(B_1)P(A \mid B_1) + P(B_2)P(A \mid B_2) + P(B_3)P(A \mid B_3)$

   Substitute:

   $P(A) = (0.25)(0.05) + (0.30)(0.04) + (0.45)(0.03)$

   Calculate each term:

   • $0.25 \times 0.05 = 0.0125$
   • $0.30 \times 0.04 = 0.0120$
   • $0.45 \times 0.03 = 0.0135$ Sum:

   $P(A) = 0.0125 + 0.0120 + 0.0135 = 0.0380$

   3. Apply Bayes’ theorem for $P(B_2 \mid A)$ Bayes’ theorem states: $$$$

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2. TG EAPCET 2021Set eng-2021-08-04-FN1 markMCQ
   Q.If $P\left(\dfrac{A}{B}\right) = \dfrac{3}{10}$, $P\left(\dfrac{B}{A}\right) = \dfrac{4}{5}$ and $P(A \cup B) = K P(B)$, then $\dfrac{1}{K} =$ (A) $\dfrac{40}{49}$ (B) $\dfrac{40}{43}$ (C) $\dfrac{100}{101}$ (D) $1$

   ›Reveal solutionSolution

   The key idea is to use the definitions of conditional probability to relate $P(A \cap B)$ to $P(A)$ and $P(B)$, then express $P(A \cup B)$ in terms of $P(B)$ alone. The result is $\frac{1}{K} = \frac{40}{43}$.

   We are given two conditional probabilities and a relation involving the union. The goal is to find $\frac{1}{K}$, where $P(A \cup B) = K P(B)$. This is a problem about linking conditional probabilities to the basic probability of events, so we start by writing down what each conditional means.

   Recall: $P(A/B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}$ and $P(B/A) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)}$. These are not symmetric — each gives a different ratio. Our job is to use them to find $P(A)$ and $P(A \cap B)$ in terms of $P(B)$, then compute $P(A \cup B)$.

   1. From $P(A/B)$ we get $P(A \cap B)$ in terms of $P(B)$.

   $P(A/B) = \frac{3}{10} \quad\Rightarrow\quad \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} = \frac{3}{10}$

   So

   $P(A \cap B) = \frac{3}{10} P(B).$

   2. From $P(B/A)$ we get $P(A)$ in terms of $P(A \cap B)$.

   $P(B/A) = \frac{4}{5} \quad\Rightarrow\quad \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)} = \frac{4}{5}$

   Hence

   $P(A) = \frac{5}{4} P(A \cap B).$

   3. Substitute the expression for $P(A \cap B)$ from step 1 into step 2.

   $P(A) = \frac{5}{4} \cdot \frac{3}{10} P(B) = \frac{15}{40} P(B) = \frac{3}{8} P(B).$

   So $P(A)$ is $\frac{3}{8}$ of $P(B)$.

   4. Now write $P(A \cup B)$ using the inclusion-exclusion formula.

   $P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B).$

   Substitute the expressions we have:

   $P(A \cup B) = \frac{3}{8} P(B) + P(B) - \frac{3}{10} P(B).$

   5. Combine the terms over a common denominator. …

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3. TG EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-09-FN1 markMCQ
   Q.If $P(A) = \dfrac{3}{8}$, $P(\overline{A}|B) = P(\overline{B}|A) = \dfrac{3}{5}$, then $P(A \cap B) + P(B) =$ (A) $\dfrac{21}{40}$ (B) $\dfrac{2}{13}$ (C) $\dfrac{3}{14}$ (D) $\dfrac{5}{12}$

   ›Reveal solutionSolution

   We use the given conditional probabilities to set up equations for $P(A \cap B)$ and $P(B)$, then solve and sum them. The result is $\frac{21}{40}$, which corresponds to option (A).

   We are told:

   • $P(A) = \frac{3}{8}$
   • $P(\overline{A} \mid B) = \frac{3}{5}$
   • $P(\overline{B} \mid A) = \frac{3}{5}$

   We need $P(A \cap B) + P(B)$.

   ---

   Concept and intuition

   Conditional probabilities like $P(\overline{A} \mid B)$ relate the probability of the complement of $A$ given $B$ to the joint probability $P(\overline{A} \cap B)$. Since $P(\overline{A} \mid B) = \frac{P(\overline{A} \cap B)}{P(B)}$, we can write an equation linking $P(B)$ and $P(A \cap B)$. Similarly, $P(\overline{B} \mid A)$ gives a relation between $P(A)$ and $P(A \cap B)$. This lets us solve for the unknowns.

   ---

   Step-by-step solution

   1. Use $P(\overline{B} \mid A)$ to find $P(A \cap B)$ By definition:

   $P(\overline{B} \mid A) = \frac{P(\overline{B} \cap A)}{P(A)} = \frac{3}{5}$

   Since $P(\overline{B} \cap A) = P(A) - P(A \cap B)$, we have:

   $\frac{P(A) - P(A \cap B)}{P(A)} = \frac{3}{5}$

   Substitute $P(A) = \frac{3}{8}$:

   $\frac{\frac{3}{8} - P(A \cap B)}{\frac{3}{8}} = \frac{3}{5}$

   Multiply both sides by $\frac{3}{8}$:

   $\frac{3}{8} - P(A \cap B) = \frac{3}{5} \cdot \frac{3}{8} = \frac{9}{40}$

   So:

   $P(A \cap B) = \frac{3}{8} - \frac{9}{40} = \frac{15}{40} - \frac{9}{40} = \frac{6}{40} = \frac{3}{20}$

   2. Use $P(\overline{A} \mid B)$ to find $P(B)$ By definition:

   $P(\overline{A} \mid B) = \frac{P(\overline{A} \cap B)}{P(B)} = \frac{3}{5}$

   Now $P(\overline{A} \cap B) = P(B) - P(A \cap B)$. Substitute $P(A \cap B) = \frac{3}{20}$:

   $\frac{P(B) - \frac{3}{20}}{P(B)} = \frac{3}{5}$

   Multiply both sides by $P(B)$: …

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4. TG EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-10-FN1 markMCQ
   Q.Three persons A, B, C planned to have a running race among themselves. If the probability that A wins the race is thrice that of B and the probability that B wins the race is $\dfrac{3}{2}$ times that of C, then the difference in probabilities of A and C to win the race is (A) $\dfrac{2}{3}$ (B) $\dfrac{1}{2}$ (C) $\dfrac{5}{14}$ (D) $\dfrac{3}{7}$

   ›Reveal solutionSolution

   With $P(A)=\tfrac{9}{14},\ P(C)=\tfrac{2}{14}$, the difference is $P(A)-P(C)=\dfrac12$.

   Let $P(C)=p$. Then $P(B)=\dfrac{3}{2}p$ and $P(A)=3\,P(B)=\dfrac{9}{2}p$.

   The three probabilities sum to $1$ (one of them must win):

   $\frac{9}{2}p+\frac{3}{2}p+p=7p=1\ \Rightarrow\ p=\frac{1}{7}.$

   Hence

   $P(A)=\frac{9}{2}\cdot\frac17=\frac{9}{14},\qquad P(C)=\frac17=\frac{2}{14}.$ …

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5. TG EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-02-AN1 markMCQ
   Q.Let $P = \begin{bmatrix} 1 & 2 & 3 \\ 4 & 5 & 6 \\ 7 & 8 & 9 \end{bmatrix}$ be a matrix. Three elements of this matrix P are selected at random. A is the event of having the three elements whose sum is odd. B is the event of selecting the three elements which are in a row or column. Then $P(A) + P\left(\dfrac{A}{B}\right) =$ (A) $\dfrac{221}{420}$ (B) $\dfrac{17}{21}$ (C) $\dfrac{21}{20}$ (D) $\dfrac{3}{2}$

   ›Reveal solutionSolution

   We compute the probability that three randomly chosen entries sum to an odd number, then the conditional probability of that event given they lie in a single row or column, and add them. The result simplifies to $\frac{17}{21}$, which is option (B).

   ---

   Concept & Intuition

   The matrix has 9 entries. We pick 3 of them uniformly at random.

   • For event A (odd sum), we need to count how many triples have an odd total. Since odd/even depends only on parity, we first classify the 9 numbers by parity: 1,3,5,7,9 are odd (5 odds); 2,4,6,8 are even (4 evens). The sum of three numbers is odd iff we have an odd number of odd entries among them — i.e., 1 or 3 odds.
   • For event B (all in one row or one column), we count triples that lie entirely in a single row (3 rows, each row has 3 entries → 1 triple per row) or entirely in a single column (3 columns, each column has 3 entries → 1 triple per column). That gives $3+3=6$ triples.
   • Then $P(A/B)$ is the fraction of those 6 triples that also have an odd sum.

   We compute both probabilities and add them.

   ---

   Step-by-step

   1. Total number of ways to choose 3 entries from 9

   $\binom{9}{3} = 84.$

   2. Count triples with odd sum (event A)
      • Case 1: exactly 1 odd, 2 evens Choose 1 odd from 5 odds: $\binom{5}{1}=5$ Choose 2 evens from 4 evens: $\binom{4}{2}=6$ Total: $5 \times 6 = 30$ triples.
      • Case 2: exactly 3 odds, 0 evens Choose 3 odds from 5 odds: $\binom{5}{3}=10$ Total: $10$ triples.
      • So $|A| = 30 + 10 = 40$. Hence

   $P(A) = \frac{40}{84} = \frac{10}{21}.$

   3. Count triples in a row or column (event B)
      • Rows: 3 rows, each row has exactly 1 triple (all three entries). So 3 triples.
      • Columns: 3 columns, each column has exactly 1 triple. So 3 triples.
      • Total: $|B| = 6$. Hence

   $P(B) = \frac{6}{84} = \frac{1}{14}.$

   4. Count triples that are both in a row/column AND have odd sum (event $A \cap B$) Check each row and column for odd sum: …

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6. TG EAPCET 2022Set eng-2022-07-18-FN1 markMCQ
   Q.Two balls are drawn at random from a bag containing 5 black balls and 3 white balls. If the random variable X denotes the number of white balls drawn, then the mean of X is (A) $\dfrac{1}{2}$ (B) $\dfrac{5}{8}$ (C) $\dfrac{3}{4}$ (D) $\dfrac{3}{8}$

   ›Reveal solutionSolution

   The mean (expected value) of the number of white balls drawn when picking two balls without replacement from 5 black and 3 white balls is $\frac{3}{4}$. The correct option is (C).

   ---

   We are drawing two balls without replacement from a small finite set. The random variable $X$ counts how many white balls appear. The mean (expected value) is just the average number of whites we’d see if we repeated the draw many times.

   Key insight: Instead of listing all outcomes and probabilities, we can use the linearity of expectation. Each ball drawn is like a “mini-experiment”: define an indicator for whether the first ball is white, and another for the second. The expected number of whites is simply the sum of the probabilities that each individual draw yields a white ball. This works even though the draws are dependent — expectation adds regardless.

   ---

   1. Define indicator variables

      Let $I_1 = 1$ if the first ball is white, $0$ otherwise.

      Let $I_2 = 1$ if the second ball is white, $0$ otherwise.

      Then $X = I_1 + I_2$.

   2. Find the probability the first ball is white

      Initially there are 3 white balls out of 8 total.

   $P(I_1 = 1) = \frac{3}{8}.$

   3. Find the probability the second ball is white By symmetry (or by the law of total probability), the chance the second ball is white is also $\frac{3}{8}$. Why? Because without any information about the first draw, the second ball is equally likely to be any of the 8 original balls. So $P(I_2 = 1) = \frac{3}{8}.$ …

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7. TG EAPCET 2024Set eng-2024-05-09-FN1 markMCQ
   Q.If the probability that a student selected at random from a particular college is good at mathematics is 0.6, then the probability of having two students who are good at mathematics in a group of 8 students of that college standing in front of the college is (A) $\dfrac{2^6 \times 3^2 \times 7}{5^8}$ (B) $\dfrac{2^6 \times 3^2 \times 7}{5^6}$ (C) $\dfrac{2^8 \times 3^2 \times 7}{5^6}$ (D) $\dfrac{2^8 \times 3^2 \times 7}{5^8}$

   ›Reveal solutionSolution

   This is a binomial trial with $n=8$, $p=0.6$. $P(X=2)=\binom{8}{2}(0.6)^2(0.4)^6 = \dfrac{2^{8}\times 3^{2}\times 7}{5^{8}}$, option (D).

   Binomial model

   Each student is independently good at mathematics with probability $p = 0.6 = \dfrac{3}{5}$, so $q = 0.4 = \dfrac{2}{5}$. For $n=8$ students, the number good at mathematics is binomial, and we want exactly two:

   $P(X=2) = \binom{8}{2}\,p^{2}\,q^{6} = \binom{8}{2}\left(\frac{3}{5}\right)^{2}\left(\frac{2}{5}\right)^{6}.$

   Simplify

   $\binom{8}{2}=28,\qquad \left(\frac{3}{5}\right)^{2}=\frac{3^{2}}{5^{2}},\qquad \left(\frac{2}{5}\right)^{6}=\frac{2^{6}}{5^{6}}.$ …

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8. TG EAPCET 2023Set eng-2023-05-13-AN1 markMCQ
   Q.If $X$ is a Poisson variate satisfying the condition $3P(x=2) = P(x=4)$ then $P(x=6) =$ (A) $\dfrac{162}{5e^6}$ (B) $\dfrac{108}{5e^6}$ (C) $\dfrac{324}{5e^6}$ (D) $\dfrac{648}{5e^6}$

   ›Reveal solutionSolution

   The key idea is to use the Poisson probability mass function $P(X=k) = \frac{e^{-\lambda} \lambda^k}{k!}$, set up the given condition $3P(X=2) = P(X=4)$, solve for $\lambda$, then compute $P(X=6)$ and match it to one of the options. The final result is $\frac{324}{5e^6}$, which corresponds to option (C).

   We start with the Poisson distribution. A Poisson random variable $X$ with mean $\lambda$ has probability mass function

   $P(X = k) = \frac{e^{-\lambda} \lambda^k}{k!}, \quad k = 0, 1, 2, \dots$

   The problem gives a relationship between $P(X=2)$ and $P(X=4)$. This lets us solve for $\lambda$, the only unknown parameter. Once we know $\lambda$, we can compute $P(X=6)$ directly.

   ---

   1. Write the given condition in terms of $\lambda$. We have $3P(X=2) = P(X=4)$. Substituting the Poisson formula:

   $3 \cdot \frac{e^{-\lambda} \lambda^2}{2!} = \frac{e^{-\lambda} \lambda^4}{4!}$

   2. Cancel the common factor $e^{-\lambda}$ (since $e^{-\lambda} > 0$ for any finite $\lambda$). This gives:

   $3 \cdot \frac{\lambda^2}{2} = \frac{\lambda^4}{24}$

   3. Simplify both sides. Left: $3 \cdot \frac{\lambda^2}{2} = \frac{3\lambda^2}{2}$. Right: $\frac{\lambda^4}{24}$. So:

   $\frac{3\lambda^2}{2} = \frac{\lambda^4}{24}$

   4. Solve for $\lambda$. Multiply both sides by 24:

   $24 \cdot \frac{3\lambda^2}{2} = \lambda^4 \quad \Rightarrow \quad 36\lambda^2 = \lambda^4$

   Rearranging:

   $\lambda^4 - 36\lambda^2 = 0 \quad \Rightarrow \quad \lambda^2(\lambda^2 - 36) = 0$

   Since $\lambda > 0$ for a Poisson distribution (mean cannot be zero if we have nonzero probabilities for $k=2,4$), we take $\lambda^2 = 36$, so $\lambda = 6$. …

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9. TG EAPCET 2024Set eng-2024-05-10-FN1 markMCQ
   Q.If the probability distribution of a random variable X is as follows, then the variance of X is

   [!FORMULA] $\begin{array}{c|cccc} X = x & 2 & 3 & 5 & 9 \\ \hline P(X = x) & k & 2k & 3k^2 & k^2 \\ \end{array}$

   (A) $\dfrac{61}{4}$ (B) $\dfrac{7}{2}$ (C) $12$ (D) $3$

   ›Reveal solutionSolution

   The key idea is to first find the constant $k$ by using the fact that total probability equals 1, then compute the mean $\mu = E[X]$, and finally the variance $Var(X) = E[X^2] - \mu^2$. The result is $\frac{61}{4}$, so the correct option is (A).

   We are given a discrete probability distribution with values $x = 2, 3, 5, 9$ and corresponding probabilities $k, 2k, 3k^2, k^2$. The first step is always to ensure the probabilities sum to 1 — this determines $k$. Then we can compute the mean and variance systematically.

   ---

   1. Find $k$ using the total probability condition.

   The sum of all probabilities must equal 1:

   $k + 2k + 3k^2 + k^2 = 1$

   Simplify:

   $3k + 4k^2 = 1 \quad \Rightarrow \quad 4k^2 + 3k - 1 = 0$

   Solve the quadratic:

   $k = \frac{-3 \pm \sqrt{9 + 16}}{8} = \frac{-3 \pm 5}{8}$

   So $k = \frac{2}{8} = \frac{1}{4}$ or $k = \frac{-8}{8} = -1$. Since probabilities cannot be negative, we take $k = \frac{1}{4}$.

   Watch out

   A common mistake is to forget that $k$ must be positive. The negative root is extraneous.

   2. Write the full probability distribution.

   With $k = \frac{1}{4}$:

   • $P(X=2) = k = \frac{1}{4}$
   • $P(X=3) = 2k = \frac{1}{2}$
   • $P(X=5) = 3k^2 = 3 \cdot \frac{1}{16} = \frac{3}{16}$
   • $P(X=9) = k^2 = \frac{1}{16}$

   Check sum: $\frac{1}{4} + \frac{1}{2} + \frac{3}{16} + \frac{1}{16} = \frac{4}{16} + \frac{8}{16} + \frac{3}{16} + \frac{1}{16} = \frac{16}{16} = 1$. Good.

   3. Compute the mean $\mu = E[X]$.

   $\mu = \sum x \cdot P(X=x) = 2\cdot\frac{1}{4} + 3\cdot\frac{1}{2} + 5\cdot\frac{3}{16} + 9\cdot\frac{1}{16}$

   Calculate each term:

   • $2 \cdot \frac{1}{4} = \frac{1}{2}$
   • $3 \cdot \frac{1}{2} = \frac{3}{2}$
   • $5 \cdot \frac{3}{16} = \frac{15}{16}$
   • $9 \cdot \frac{1}{16} = \frac{9}{16}$

   Sum:

   $\mu = \frac{1}{2} + \frac{3}{2} + \frac{15}{16} + \frac{9}{16} = \frac{4}{2} + \frac{24}{16} = 2 + \frac{3}{2} = \frac{7}{2}$

   So $\mu = 3.5$.

   4. Compute $E[X^2]$.

   $E[X^2] = \sum x^2 \cdot P(X=x) = 4\cdot\frac{1}{4} + 9\cdot\frac{1}{2} + 25\cdot\frac{3}{16} + 81\cdot\frac{1}{16}$

   Calculate:

   • $4 \cdot \frac{1}{4} = 1$
   • $9 \cdot \frac{1}{2} = \frac{9}{2}$
   • $25 \cdot \frac{3}{16} = \frac{75}{16}$
   • $81 \cdot \frac{1}{16} = \frac{81}{16}$

   Sum:

   $E[X^2] = 1 + \frac{9}{2} + \frac{75}{16} + \frac{81}{16} = 1 + \frac{9}{2} + \frac{156}{16}$

   Convert to sixteenths: $1 = \frac{16}{16}$, $\frac{9}{2} = \frac{72}{16}$, so

   $$$$

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10. TG EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-10-AN1 markMCQ
    Q.A card is drawn randomly from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards. If A is the event of getting a diamond card and B is the event of getting an ace card, then the probability that exactly one of the events among A and B to occur is (A) $\dfrac{15}{52}$ (B) $\dfrac{4}{13}$ (C) $\dfrac{17}{52}$ (D) $\dfrac{5}{13}$

    ›Reveal solutionSolution

    The probability that exactly one of the events A (diamond) or B (ace) occurs is the sum of their individual probabilities minus twice the probability of both occurring. The result is $\frac{15}{52}$, which corresponds to option (A).

    We want the probability that exactly one of the two events happens — that is, either we draw a diamond that is not an ace, or we draw an ace that is not a diamond. This is a classic "exclusive or" (XOR) situation.

    Why this approach works:

    If we simply add $P(A) + P(B)$, we count the case where both occur (the ace of diamonds) twice. To get exactly one, we subtract that double-counted overlap once more than usual — hence $P(A) + P(B) - 2P(A \cap B)$.

    ---

    1. Identify the probabilities of each event individually.

       • There are 13 diamonds in a deck of 52, so $P(A) = \frac{13}{52} = \frac{1}{4}$.
       • There are 4 aces, so $P(B) = \frac{4}{52} = \frac{1}{13}$.

    2. Find the probability that both events occur (the intersection).

       • Only one card is both a diamond and an ace: the ace of diamonds.
       • So $P(A \cap B) = \frac{1}{52}$.

    3. Apply the formula for exactly one event.

       • Exactly one of A or B occurs means: $(A \text{ and not } B)$ or $(B \text{ and not } A)$.
       • The probability is:

    $P(\text{exactly one}) = P(A) + P(B) - 2P(A \cap B)$

    • Substitute the values:

    $\frac{13}{52} + \frac{4}{52} - 2 \cdot \frac{1}{52} = \frac{13 + 4 - 2}{52} = \frac{15}{52}$

    4. Check against the options. …

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11. TG EAPCET 2022Set eng-2022-07-19-FN1 markMCQ
    Q.If $A$ and $B$ are two events of a random experiment such that $P(\overline{A}) = \dfrac{2}{3}$, $P(B) = \dfrac{4}{15}$ and $P(A \cap \overline{B}) = \dfrac{1}{5}$, then $\sqrt{195 \left[ P\left(B \mid (A \cup \overline{B})\right) + P(A \cup B) \right]} =$ (A) 9 (B) 11 (C) 13 (D) 15

    ›Reveal solutionSolution

    This problem requires us to calculate probabilities of various event combinations (complement, intersection, union) and a conditional probability using fundamental set theory identities. We then substitute these values into the given expression to find the final numerical result. The final value is $\boxed{11}$.

    To solve this problem, we need to systematically break down the given expression and calculate each probability term using the fundamental rules of probability and set theory. The key is to correctly apply the formulas for complements, unions, intersections, and conditional probabilities, often using set identities to simplify complex event descriptions.

    Here's a step-by-step approach:

    1. Determine $P(A)$ from $P(\overline{A})$:

       The probability of an event $A$ and its complement $\overline{A}$ always sum to 1.

       $P(A) + P(\overline{A}) = 1$

       Given $P(\overline{A}) = \frac{2}{3}$, we can find $P(A)$:

       $P(A) = 1 - P(\overline{A}) = 1 - \frac{2}{3} = \frac{1}{3}$.

    2. Determine $P(A \cap B)$ using $P(A \cap \overline{B})$:

       The event $A$ can be partitioned into two mutually exclusive events: $A \cap B$ (A and B both occur) and $A \cap \overline{B}$ (A occurs, but B does not).

       $P(A) = P(A \cap B) + P(A \cap \overline{B})$

       We are given $P(A \cap \overline{B}) = \frac{1}{5}$ and we found $P(A) = \frac{1}{3}$.

       So, $P(A \cap B) = P(A) - P(A \cap \overline{B}) = \frac{1}{3} - \frac{1}{5}$.

       To subtract these fractions, we find a common denominator, which is 15:

       $P(A \cap B) = \frac{5}{15} - \frac{3}{15} = \frac{2}{15}$.

    3. Calculate $P(A \cup B)$:

       The probability of the union of two events $A$ and $B$ is given by the addition rule.

       $P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B)$

       We have $P(A) = \frac{1}{3}$, $P(B) = \frac{4}{15}$ (given), and $P(A \cap B) = \frac{2}{15}$ (from Step 2).

       $P(A \cup B) = \frac{1}{3} + \frac{4}{15} - \frac{2}{15}$.

       Using a common denominator of 15:

       $P(A \cup B) = \frac{5}{15} + \frac{4}{15} - \frac{2}{15} = \frac{5+4-2}{15} = \frac{7}{15}$.

       This is the first part of the sum inside the square root.

    4. Prepare for $P(B \mid (A \cup \overline{B}))$: Identify the intersection term:

       The conditional probability $P(X \mid Y)$ is defined as $\frac{P(X \cap Y)}{P(Y)}$. Here, $X=B$ and $Y=(A \cup \overline{B})$.

       So, we need to find $P(B \cap (A \cup \overline{B}))$.

       Using the distributive property of set intersection over union:

       $B \cap (A \cup \overline{B}) = (B \cap A) \cup (B \cap \overline{B})$.

       The event $B \cap \overline{B}$ means that event $B$ occurs AND event $B$ does NOT occur, which is impossible. Thus, $B \cap \overline{B} = \emptyset$.

       So, $B \cap (A \cup \overline{B}) = (B \cap A) \cup \emptyset = B \cap A$.

       Therefore, $P(B \cap (A \cup \overline{B})) = P(A \cap B)$.

       From Step 2, we know $P(A \cap B) = \frac{2}{15}$. This is the numerator for our conditional probability.

    5. Prepare for $P(B \mid (A \cup \overline{B}))$: Calculate $P(\overline{B})$:

       Similar to Step 1, we use the complement rule for event $B$.

       $P(\overline{B}) = 1 - P(B)$.

       Given $P(B) = \frac{4}{15}$:

       $P(\overline{B}) = 1 - \frac{4}{15} = \frac{15-4}{15} = \frac{11}{15}$.

    6. Prepare for $P(B \mid (A \cup \overline{B}))$: Calculate $P(A \cup \overline{B})$:

       This is the denominator for our conditional probability. We use the addition rule for $A$ and $\overline{B}$.

       $P(A \cup \overline{B}) = P(A) + P(\overline{B}) - P(A \cap \overline{B})$

       We have $P(A) = \frac{1}{3}$ (from Step 1), $P(\overline{B}) = \frac{11}{15}$ (from Step 5), and $P(A \cap \overline{B}) = \frac{1}{5}$ (given).

       $P(A \cup \overline{B}) = \frac{1}{3} + \frac{11}{15} - \frac{1}{5}$.

       Using a common denominator of 15: …

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12. TG EAPCET 2024Set eng-2024-05-11-FN1 markMCQ
    Q.If 4 letters are selected at random from the letters of the word PROBABILITY, then the probability of getting a combination of letters in which atleast one letter is repeated is (A) $\dfrac{43}{170}$ (B) $\dfrac{19}{61}$ (C) $\dfrac{57}{184}$ (D) $\dfrac{29}{155}$

    ›Reveal solutionSolution

    The multiset $\text{PROBABILITY}$ has $9$ distinct letters (with $B$ and $I$ each twice). Total $4$-letter selections $=183$; those with a repeat $=57$, so the probability is $\dfrac{57}{183}=\dfrac{19}{61}$, option (B).

    Letters of PROBABILITY: $P,R,O,B,A,B,I,L,I,T,Y$ — $11$ letters, $9$ distinct types, with $B$ and $I$ appearing twice each.

    Step 1 — Total number of $4$-letter selections (order does not matter).

    Count by repetition pattern:

    • All four distinct: $\dbinom{9}{4}=126$.
    • Exactly one repeated pair ($B$ or $I$) plus two other distinct letters: $2\times\dbinom{8}{2}=2\times 28=56$.
    • Two repeated pairs, i.e. $\{B,B,I,I\}$: $1$ way. …

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