Q.A laboratory blood test is 99% effective in detecting a certain disease when it is in fact present. However, the test also yields a false positive result for 0.5% of the healthy person tested (i.e. if a healthy person is tested, then, with probability 0.005, the test will imply he has the disease). If 0.1% of the population actually has the disease, what is the probability that a person has the disease given that his test result is positive?
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🔒 Start your 14-day free trial to unlock the full solution →Concept understanding — Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
Roll a die and ask "what is the chance of an even number?" — that is 3/6. But suppose someone tells you the result is greater than 3. Now you are no longer looking at all six faces, only at {4,5,6}, and two of those (4 and 6) are even, so the probability becomes 2/3. That change — from the probability of A to the probability of A given that B has already occurred — is conditional probability.
The Idea: Shrink the Sample Space
Conditioning on B throws away every outcome where B is false and treats B as the new "whole world." You measure A only against what is still possible.
Think of filtering a table of data: unconditional probability uses every row; conditional probability keeps only the rows where the condition is true.
The Definition
For events A and B with P(B)>0,
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B).
We divide by P(B) to rescale so that B itself has probability 1; the surviving part of A is the overlap A∩B. Checking the die: P(A∩B)=P({4,6})=62 and P(B)=63, so P(A∣B)=3/62/6=32, matching the intuition.
Rearranging gives the multiplication rule P(A∩B)=P(A∣B)P(B), which is usually the easier way to compute a joint probability when a problem says "given that."
Two Cautions
- P(A∣B) and P(B∣A) are generally not equal; swapping them is the classic mistake. They are linked by Bayes' theorem, P(A∣B)=P(B)P(B∣A)P(A). …
Concept: Conditional Probability (Bayes' Theorem)
Let D = has disease, T+ = positive test.
Given: P(T+∣D)=0.99, P(T+∣Dˉ)=0.005, P(D)=0.001.
Step 1: Find P(T+) using the law of total probability:
P(T+)=P(T+∣D)P(D)+P(T+∣Dˉ)P(Dˉ)=(0.99)(0.001)+(0.005)(0.999)=0.00099+0.004995=0.005985.
Step 2: Apply Bayes' Theorem:
P(D∣T+)=P(T+)P(T+∣D)P(D)=0.0059850.00099.
Step 3: Simplify: …
Using Bayes’ theorem, the probability that a person actually has the disease given a positive test result is approximately 0.165 (or 16.5%). This low value arises because the disease is rare, so even a highly accurate test produces many false positives.
Why Bayes’ theorem is the natural tool
We are asked: Given a positive test, what is the chance the person truly has the disease? This is a classic inverse probability problem. The test’s accuracy is given “forward” (if diseased → positive with 99% chance), but we need the reverse direction. Bayes’ theorem is designed exactly for this: it lets us “flip” conditional probabilities using the base rate (prevalence) of the disease.
The key insight: even a very good test can be misleading when the condition is rare. Most positive results will come from the large number of healthy people, not from the few who are actually sick.
Step-by-step solution
1. Define the events clearly
Let D = event that the person has the disease.
Let T+ = event that the test result is positive.
We are given:
- Prevalence: P(D)=0.001 (0.1% of population)
- Test sensitivity (true positive rate): P(T+∣D)=0.99
- False positive rate: P(T+∣not D)=0.005 (0.5% of healthy people test positive)
2. Write Bayes’ theorem for this situation
P(D∣T+)=P(T+)P(T+∣D)⋅P(D)
The denominator P(T+) is the total probability of a positive test, which comes from two sources: diseased people who test positive, and healthy people who test positive.
3. Compute the total probability of a positive test
P(T+)=P(T+∣D)⋅P(D)+P(T+∣not D)⋅P(not D)
We know P(not D)=1−0.001=0.999.
So:
P(T+)=(0.99)(0.001)+(0.005)(0.999)
=0.00099+0.004995=0.005985
4. Apply Bayes’ theorem
P(D∣T+)=0.0059850.99×0.001=0.0059850.00099
Now simplify: …
Method: Bayes' Theorem with a rare base rate (the false-positive trap)
Use this for medical-test and screening problems: the test's accuracy is given forward (diseased → positive), but you are asked the reverse (positive → diseased), and the condition is rare.
Steps
Step 1: Write the prior (prevalence) and its complement.
P(D) is the base rate of the condition; P(Dˉ)=1−P(D) is the healthy fraction. Because P(D) is tiny, P(Dˉ) is close to 1 — keep both, do not carelessly round it to 1.
Step 2: Record the two likelihoods.
P(E∣D) is the true-positive rate (sensitivity); P(E∣Dˉ) is the false-positive rate.
Step 3: Total probability of a positive result. …
Common Mistakes
Mistake 1: Reading "99% effective" as a 99% chance of disease after a positive test.
Why it's wrong: that ignores the base rate — the disease is present in only 0.1% of people. Correct approach: weight by prevalence via Bayes' theorem; the answer is about 0.165, not 0.99.
Mistake 2: Leaving out the false-positive contribution to P(T+).
Why it's wrong: most positives actually come from the huge healthy group. Correct approach: P(T+)=(0.99)(0.001)+(0.005)(0.999)=0.005985. …
Showing the 12 most recent of 30 on this concept.
- TG EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-02-AN1 markMCQQ.A, B1, B2, B3 are the events in a random experiment. If P(B1)=0.25, P(B2)=0.30, P(B3)=0.45, P(B1A)=0.05, P(B2A)=0.04, P(B3A)=0.03, then P(AB2)= (A) 196 (B) 198 (C) 1912 (D) 195
›Reveal solutionSolution
This is a classic Bayes’ theorem problem: we are given prior probabilities for three mutually exclusive events and the conditional probabilities of A given each, and we need the posterior probability of B2 given A. The answer is 196, which corresponds to option (A).
We start with the concept: Bayes’ theorem lets us “reverse” conditional probabilities. Here, we know P(A∣Bi) and want P(B2∣A). The key is that the Bi form a partition of the sample space (they are the only possible “causes” of A), so we can compute P(A) using the law of total probability, then apply Bayes’ formula.
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Identify the given data
- P(B1)=0.25, P(B2)=0.30, P(B3)=0.45
- P(A∣B1)=0.05, P(A∣B2)=0.04, P(A∣B3)=0.03 The events B1,B2,B3 are mutually exclusive and exhaustive (their probabilities sum to 1), so they form a partition.
-
Compute the total probability of A
By the law of total probability:
P(A)=P(B1)P(A∣B1)+P(B2)P(A∣B2)+P(B3)P(A∣B3)
Substitute:
P(A)=(0.25)(0.05)+(0.30)(0.04)+(0.45)(0.03)
Calculate each term:
- 0.25×0.05=0.0125
- 0.30×0.04=0.0120
- 0.45×0.03=0.0135 Sum:
P(A)=0.0125+0.0120+0.0135=0.0380
- Apply Bayes’ theorem for P(B2∣A) Bayes’ theorem states:
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- TG EAPCET 2021Set eng-2021-08-04-FN1 markMCQQ.If P(BA)=103, P(AB)=54 and P(A∪B)=KP(B), then K1= (A) 4940 (B) 4340 (C) 101100 (D) 1
›Reveal solutionSolution
The key idea is to use the definitions of conditional probability to relate P(A∩B) to P(A) and P(B), then express P(A∪B) in terms of P(B) alone. The result is K1=4340.
We are given two conditional probabilities and a relation involving the union. The goal is to find K1, where P(A∪B)=KP(B). This is a problem about linking conditional probabilities to the basic probability of events, so we start by writing down what each conditional means.
Recall: P(A/B)=P(B)P(A∩B) and P(B/A)=P(A)P(A∩B). These are not symmetric — each gives a different ratio. Our job is to use them to find P(A) and P(A∩B) in terms of P(B), then compute P(A∪B).
- From P(A/B) we get P(A∩B) in terms of P(B).
P(A/B)=103⇒P(B)P(A∩B)=103
So
P(A∩B)=103P(B).
- From P(B/A) we get P(A) in terms of P(A∩B).
P(B/A)=54⇒P(A)P(A∩B)=54
Hence
P(A)=45P(A∩B).
- Substitute the expression for P(A∩B) from step 1 into step 2.
P(A)=45⋅103P(B)=4015P(B)=83P(B).
So P(A) is 83 of P(B).
- Now write P(A∪B) using the inclusion-exclusion formula.
P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B).
Substitute the expressions we have:
P(A∪B)=83P(B)+P(B)−103P(B).
- Combine the terms over a common denominator. …
- TG EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-09-FN1 markMCQQ.If P(A)=83, P(A∣B)=P(B∣A)=53, then P(A∩B)+P(B)= (A) 4021 (B) 132 (C) 143 (D) 125
›Reveal solutionSolution
We use the given conditional probabilities to set up equations for P(A∩B) and P(B), then solve and sum them. The result is 4021, which corresponds to option (A).
We are told:
- P(A)=83
- P(A∣B)=53
- P(B∣A)=53
We need P(A∩B)+P(B).
Concept and intuition
Conditional probabilities like P(A∣B) relate the probability of the complement of A given B to the joint probability P(A∩B). Since P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B), we can write an equation linking P(B) and P(A∩B). Similarly, P(B∣A) gives a relation between P(A) and P(A∩B). This lets us solve for the unknowns.
Step-by-step solution
- Use P(B∣A) to find P(A∩B) By definition:
P(B∣A)=P(A)P(B∩A)=53
Since P(B∩A)=P(A)−P(A∩B), we have:
P(A)P(A)−P(A∩B)=53
Substitute P(A)=83:
8383−P(A∩B)=53
Multiply both sides by 83:
83−P(A∩B)=53⋅83=409
So:
P(A∩B)=83−409=4015−409=406=203
- Use P(A∣B) to find P(B) By definition:
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B)=53
Now P(A∩B)=P(B)−P(A∩B). Substitute P(A∩B)=203:
P(B)P(B)−203=53
Multiply both sides by P(B): …
- TG EAPCET 2021Set eng-2021-08-04-FN1 markMCQQ.If the probability that an individual will suffer a bad reaction from an injection is 0.001, then the probability that out of 2000 individuals, exactly 3 individuals suffer a bad reaction is (A) 3e24 (B) e22 (C) 3e22 (D) 5e24
›Reveal solutionSolution
This is a rare-event problem where n=2000 is large and p=0.001 is small, so the Poisson approximation to the binomial distribution applies. The probability that exactly 3 individuals suffer a reaction is 3e24, which corresponds to option (A).
The key insight here is that we are dealing with a binomial experiment: 2000 independent trials, each with a constant probability of "success" (bad reaction) p=0.001. The exact probability of exactly 3 successes would be (32000)(0.001)3(0.999)1997. That expression is perfectly correct but computationally messy — and more importantly, it misses the conceptual point.
When n is large and p is very small, the binomial distribution is well approximated by the Poisson distribution with parameter λ=np. This is the classic "rare event" scenario. The Poisson distribution gives us a clean, closed-form answer that matches one of the given options exactly.
Let's work through it step by step.
- Identify the exact binomial probability. For n=2000, p=0.001, the probability of exactly k=3 reactions is
P(X=3)=(32000)(0.001)3(0.999)1997.
This is the truth, but we won't evaluate it directly — the numbers are unwieldy and the exam expects the Poisson approximation.
- Compute the Poisson parameter λ.
λ=np=2000×0.001=2.
This λ=2 is the average number of bad reactions expected in 2000 individuals.
- Apply the Poisson approximation. For a Poisson random variable Y with mean λ,
P(Y=k)=k!e−λλk.
Here λ=2 and k=3, so …
- TG EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-02-AN1 markMCQQ.Let P=147258369 be a matrix. Three elements of this matrix P are selected at random. A is the event of having the three elements whose sum is odd. B is the event of selecting the three elements which are in a row or column. Then P(A)+P(BA)= (A) 420221 (B) 2117 (C) 2021 (D) 23
›Reveal solutionSolution
We compute the probability that three randomly chosen entries sum to an odd number, then the conditional probability of that event given they lie in a single row or column, and add them. The result simplifies to 2117, which is option (B).
Concept & Intuition
The matrix has 9 entries. We pick 3 of them uniformly at random.
- For event A (odd sum), we need to count how many triples have an odd total. Since odd/even depends only on parity, we first classify the 9 numbers by parity: 1,3,5,7,9 are odd (5 odds); 2,4,6,8 are even (4 evens). The sum of three numbers is odd iff we have an odd number of odd entries among them — i.e., 1 or 3 odds.
- For event B (all in one row or one column), we count triples that lie entirely in a single row (3 rows, each row has 3 entries → 1 triple per row) or entirely in a single column (3 columns, each column has 3 entries → 1 triple per column). That gives 3+3=6 triples.
- Then P(A/B) is the fraction of those 6 triples that also have an odd sum.
We compute both probabilities and add them.
Step-by-step
- Total number of ways to choose 3 entries from 9
(39)=84.
- Count triples with odd sum (event A)
- Case 1: exactly 1 odd, 2 evens Choose 1 odd from 5 odds: (15)=5 Choose 2 evens from 4 evens: (24)=6 Total: 5×6=30 triples.
- Case 2: exactly 3 odds, 0 evens Choose 3 odds from 5 odds: (35)=10 Total: 10 triples.
- So ∣A∣=30+10=40. Hence
P(A)=8440=2110.
- Count triples in a row or column (event B)
- Rows: 3 rows, each row has exactly 1 triple (all three entries). So 3 triples.
- Columns: 3 columns, each column has exactly 1 triple. So 3 triples.
- Total: ∣B∣=6. Hence
P(B)=846=141.
- Count triples that are both in a row/column AND have odd sum (event A∩B) Check each row and column for odd sum: …
- TG EAPCET 2022Set eng-2022-07-19-FN1 markMCQQ.If A and B are two events of a random experiment such that P(A)=32, P(B)=154 and P(A∩B)=51, then 195[P(B∣(A∪B))+P(A∪B)]= (A) 9 (B) 11 (C) 13 (D) 15
›Reveal solutionSolution
This problem requires us to calculate probabilities of various event combinations (complement, intersection, union) and a conditional probability using fundamental set theory identities. We then substitute these values into the given expression to find the final numerical result. The final value is 11.
To solve this problem, we need to systematically break down the given expression and calculate each probability term using the fundamental rules of probability and set theory. The key is to correctly apply the formulas for complements, unions, intersections, and conditional probabilities, often using set identities to simplify complex event descriptions.
Here's a step-by-step approach:
-
Determine P(A) from P(A):
The probability of an event A and its complement A always sum to 1.
P(A)+P(A)=1
Given P(A)=32, we can find P(A):
P(A)=1−P(A)=1−32=31.
-
Determine P(A∩B) using P(A∩B):
The event A can be partitioned into two mutually exclusive events: A∩B (A and B both occur) and A∩B (A occurs, but B does not).
P(A)=P(A∩B)+P(A∩B)
We are given P(A∩B)=51 and we found P(A)=31.
So, P(A∩B)=P(A)−P(A∩B)=31−51.
To subtract these fractions, we find a common denominator, which is 15:
P(A∩B)=155−153=152.
-
Calculate P(A∪B):
The probability of the union of two events A and B is given by the addition rule.
P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)
We have P(A)=31, P(B)=154 (given), and P(A∩B)=152 (from Step 2).
P(A∪B)=31+154−152.
Using a common denominator of 15:
P(A∪B)=155+154−152=155+4−2=157.
This is the first part of the sum inside the square root.
-
Prepare for P(B∣(A∪B)): Identify the intersection term:
The conditional probability P(X∣Y) is defined as P(Y)P(X∩Y). Here, X=B and Y=(A∪B).
So, we need to find P(B∩(A∪B)).
Using the distributive property of set intersection over union:
B∩(A∪B)=(B∩A)∪(B∩B).
The event B∩B means that event B occurs AND event B does NOT occur, which is impossible. Thus, B∩B=∅.
So, B∩(A∪B)=(B∩A)∪∅=B∩A.
Therefore, P(B∩(A∪B))=P(A∩B).
From Step 2, we know P(A∩B)=152. This is the numerator for our conditional probability.
-
Prepare for P(B∣(A∪B)): Calculate P(B):
Similar to Step 1, we use the complement rule for event B.
P(B)=1−P(B).
Given P(B)=154:
P(B)=1−154=1515−4=1511.
-
Prepare for P(B∣(A∪B)): Calculate P(A∪B):
This is the denominator for our conditional probability. We use the addition rule for A and B.
P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)
We have P(A)=31 (from Step 1), P(B)=1511 (from Step 5), and P(A∩B)=51 (given).
P(A∪B)=31+1511−51.
Using a common denominator of 15: …
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- TG EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-10-AN1 markMCQQ.A card is drawn randomly from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards. If A is the event of getting a diamond card and B is the event of getting an ace card, then the probability that exactly one of the events among A and B to occur is (A) 5215 (B) 134 (C) 5217 (D) 135
›Reveal solutionSolution
The probability that exactly one of the events A (diamond) or B (ace) occurs is the sum of their individual probabilities minus twice the probability of both occurring. The result is 5215, which corresponds to option (A).
We want the probability that exactly one of the two events happens — that is, either we draw a diamond that is not an ace, or we draw an ace that is not a diamond. This is a classic "exclusive or" (XOR) situation.
Why this approach works:
If we simply add P(A)+P(B), we count the case where both occur (the ace of diamonds) twice. To get exactly one, we subtract that double-counted overlap once more than usual — hence P(A)+P(B)−2P(A∩B).
-
Identify the probabilities of each event individually.
- There are 13 diamonds in a deck of 52, so P(A)=5213=41.
- There are 4 aces, so P(B)=524=131.
-
Find the probability that both events occur (the intersection).
- Only one card is both a diamond and an ace: the ace of diamonds.
- So P(A∩B)=521.
-
Apply the formula for exactly one event.
- Exactly one of A or B occurs means: (A and not B) or (B and not A).
- The probability is:
P(exactly one)=P(A)+P(B)−2P(A∩B)
- Substitute the values:
5213+524−2⋅521=5213+4−2=5215
- Check against the options. …
-
- TG EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-09-AN1 markMCQQ.In a Poisson distribution with parameter λ, if 5P(X=3)=P(X=5), then P(X=2)= (A) e525 (B) e1050 (C) e630 (D) e840
›Reveal solutionSolution
The key idea is to use the Poisson probability formula P(X=k)=k!e−λλk and the given relation 5P(X=3)=P(X=5) to solve for λ, then compute P(X=2). The final answer is e1050, which corresponds to option (B).
The Poisson distribution models the number of events in a fixed interval when events occur independently at a constant average rate λ. The probability mass function is P(X=k)=k!e−λλk for k=0,1,2,…. Here, the condition 5P(X=3)=P(X=5) gives a direct equation in λ because the e−λ factor cancels, leaving a simple algebraic relation. Once λ is found, plugging into P(X=2) yields the answer.
- Write the given condition using the Poisson formula:
5⋅3!e−λλ3=5!e−λλ5
The factor e−λ cancels on both sides (since λ is finite), giving:
5⋅6λ3=120λ5
- Simplify the equation. Multiply both sides by 120 to clear denominators:
5⋅6λ3⋅120=λ5
Compute 120/6=20, so 5⋅20⋅λ3=λ5, i.e., 100λ3=λ5.
- Assuming λ>0 (since it's a rate parameter), divide both sides by λ3:
100=λ2
Hence λ=10 (we take the positive root because λ is a mean, always positive). …
- TG EAPCET 2021Set eng-2021-08-04-AN1 markMCQQ.A non-zero integer x is selected randomly from the set of integers {x∈Z/−25≤x≤25,x=0}. The probability that x+6≤x135 is (A) 2512 (B) 52 (C) 53 (D) 2514
›Reveal solutionSolution
We need to find the probability that a non-zero integer x from the set {−25,…,25} satisfies the inequality x+6≤x135. We first determine the total number of possible integers (the sample space), which is 50. Then, we solve the inequality to find the integers that satisfy it within the given range (the event space), which are 20 integers. The probability is 52.
The problem asks for a probability, which is defined as the ratio of the number of favorable outcomes to the total number of possible outcomes. Our strategy will be to first identify the complete set of possible integers x (the sample space) and count them. Then, we will solve the given inequality to find which of these integers satisfy the condition (the event space) and count those. Finally, we will compute the ratio.
-
Determine the Sample Space:
The problem states that x is a non-zero integer selected from the set {x∈Z/−25≤x≤25,x=0}.
This means x can be any integer from −25 to 25, but x cannot be 0.
The integers in this range are {−25,−24,…,−1,0,1,…,24,25}.
The total count of integers from −25 to 25 (inclusive) is 25−(−25)+1=51.
Since x=0, we must exclude 0 from this count.
Therefore, the total number of possible outcomes (the size of the sample space) is 51−1=50.
-
Solve the Inequality:
We need to find the integers x that satisfy the inequality x+6≤x135.
To solve rational inequalities, the most reliable method is to move all terms to one side and combine them into a single fraction. This avoids potential errors that arise from multiplying by a variable whose sign is unknown.
x+6−x135≤0
To combine these terms, we find a common denominator, which is x:
xx⋅x+x6⋅x−x135≤0
xx2+6x−135≤0
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Factor the Numerator:
Now, we need to find the roots of the quadratic expression in the numerator, x2+6x−135=0. We can use the quadratic formula x=2a−b±b2−4ac:
x=2(1)−6±62−4(1)(−135)
x=2−6±36+540
x=2−6±576
Recognizing that 242=576, we have:
x=2−6±24
This gives two roots:
x1=2−6−24=2−30=−15
x2=2−6+24=218=9
So, the numerator can be factored as (x−(−15))(x−9)=(x+15)(x−9).
The inequality now becomes x(x+15)(x−9)≤0.
Watch outA common mistake is to multiply both sides of the inequality by x. This is incorrect because the sign of x is unknown. If x is negative, multiplying by x would reverse the inequality sign. If x is positive, it would not. Handling these two cases separately is cumbersome and prone to error. The method of moving all terms to one side and analyzing critical points is more robust.
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Determine Intervals Satisfying the Inequality:
The critical points are the values of x where the numerator or the denominator is zero. These are x=−15, x=0, and x=9. These points divide the number line into four intervals. We will test a value from each interval to determine the sign of the expression x(x+15)(x−9).
Interval Test Value (x) Sign of (x+15) Sign of (x−9) Sign of x Sign of x(x+15)(x−9) Condition ≤0 x<−15 −20 Negative Negative Negative (−)(−)(−)=(−) True −15<x<0 −1 Positive Negative Negative (−)(+)(−)=(+) False
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- TG EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-04-AN1 markMCQQ.In a Poisson distribution, if P(X=2)P(X=5)=75001 and P(X=3)P(X=5)=5001, then the mean of the distribution is (A) 151 (B) 51 (C) 251 (D) 31
›Reveal solutionSolution
The key idea is to use the ratio formulas for Poisson probabilities to eliminate the common factor and solve for the mean λ. The mean is found to be 1/5, so option (B) is correct.
The Poisson distribution has probability mass function
P(X=k)=k!e−λλk,k=0,1,2,…
where λ>0 is the mean. When we take ratios of probabilities, the factor e−λ cancels, leaving only powers of λ and factorials. This makes ratios a clean way to solve for λ without needing the actual probabilities.
- Write the given ratios in terms of λ.
P(X=2)P(X=5)=2!e−λλ25!e−λλ5=λ2/2λ5/120=60λ3
The problem states this equals 75001. So:
60λ3=75001
- Solve for λ3 from the first ratio. Multiply both sides by 60:
λ3=750060=1251
Hence λ=31251=51.
- Check consistency with the second ratio.
P(X=3)P(X=5)=λ3/6λ5/120=20λ2
Plug λ=1/5: …
- TG EAPCET 2023Set eng-2023-05-12-FN1 markMCQQ.Two numbers b and c are chosen at random in succession without replacement from the set {1,2,3,…,9}. Then the probability that x2+bx+c>0, ∀x∈R is (A) 7229 (B) 8132 (C) 14345 (D) 12582
›Reveal solutionSolution
The condition x2+bx+c>0 for all real x is equivalent to the discriminant b2−4c<0. Counting ordered pairs (b,c) from {1,…,9} without replacement that satisfy b2<4c gives 29 favorable outcomes out of 72 total, so the probability is 7229, which is option (A).
Why this approach works
A quadratic x2+bx+c that is always positive (for every real x) must have no real roots and open upward. Since the coefficient of x2 is 1>0, the condition reduces to the discriminant being negative: b2−4c<0, i.e. b2<4c.
We are choosing b and c without replacement from {1,…,9}, so each ordered pair (b,c) with b=c is equally likely. The total number of such ordered pairs is 9×8=72. We just need to count how many of them satisfy b2<4c.
Step-by-step counting
1. Understand the inequality
We need b2<4c. Since c is an integer from 1 to 9, rewrite as c>4b2. For each b, we count the number of c values (different from b) that are strictly greater than b2/4.
2. Compute for each b
- b=1: b2/4=0.25, so c>0.25 means c≥1. All c from 1 to 9 except c=1 (since b=c) work. That gives 8 choices.
- b=2: b2/4=1, so c>1 means c≥2. Excluding c=2 leaves {3,4,5,6,7,8,9} → 7 choices.
- b=3: b2/4=2.25, so c>2.25 means c≥3. Excluding c=3 leaves {4,5,6,7,8,9} → 6 choices.
- b=4: b2/4=4, so c>4 means c≥5. Excluding c=4 (which isn't in this set anyway) gives {5,6,7,8,9} → 5 choices.
- b=5: b2/4=6.25, so c>6.25 means c≥7. Excluding c=5 (not in set) gives {7,8,9} → 3 choices.
- b=6: b2/4=9, so c>9 means c≥10, but max c is 9. No c works → 0 choices. …
- TG EAPCET 2024Set eng-2024-05-09-FN1 markMCQQ.If the probability that a student selected at random from a particular college is good at mathematics is 0.6, then the probability of having two students who are good at mathematics in a group of 8 students of that college standing in front of the college is (A) 5826×32×7 (B) 5626×32×7 (C) 5628×32×7 (D) 5828×32×7
›Reveal solutionSolution
This is a binomial trial with n=8, p=0.6. P(X=2)=(28)(0.6)2(0.4)6=5828×32×7, option (D).
Binomial model
Each student is independently good at mathematics with probability p=0.6=53, so q=0.4=52. For n=8 students, the number good at mathematics is binomial, and we want exactly two:
P(X=2)=(28)p2q6=(28)(53)2(52)6.
Simplify
(28)=28,(53)2=5232,(52)6=5626. …
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