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Miscellaneous Exercise · Q2

Q.A couple has two children,

(i) Find the probability that both children are males, if it is known that at least one of the children is male.
(ii) Find the probability that both children are females, if it is known that the elder child is a female.
Telangana TsbieTextbookSubjective· 3mImportance★★★★★
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Conditional probability reduces the sample space to only outcomes satisfying the given condition. For (i), the probability that both are males given at least one male is 13\frac{1}{3}. For (ii), the probability that both are females given the elder is female is 12\frac{1}{2}.

Concept and Intuition

When we say "given that" something is true, we are no longer looking at all possible outcomes — we restrict our attention to only those outcomes where the condition holds. This is the heart of conditional probability: P(A∣B)=P(A∩B)P(B)P(A \mid B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}, where BB is the condition.

For a family with two children, the natural sample space (assuming equal probability for male and female, and independence) is:

{MM,MF,FM,FF}\{ MM, MF, FM, FF \}

Each outcome has probability 14\frac{1}{4}. The order matters here — first child then second — so MF and FM are distinct.

The classic mistake is to treat "at least one male" as if it only eliminates FF, but then to forget that the remaining three outcomes are not equally likely under the condition? Actually, they are equally likely because each original outcome had equal probability, and we are simply discarding one. So the conditional probability is just counting: number of favorable outcomes in the reduced space divided by total outcomes in the reduced space.

Let's work each part carefully.


(i) Both males, given at least one male

  1. Define events.

    Let AA = "both children are males" = {MM}\{MM\}.

    Let BB = "at least one child is male" = {MM,MF,FM}\{MM, MF, FM\}.

  2. Find the reduced sample space.

    The condition BB removes only {FF}\{FF\}. So the new sample space has 3 equally likely outcomes: MM, MF, FM.

  3. Count favorable outcomes.

    Only MM satisfies AA. So exactly 1 outcome.

  4. Compute probability.

P(A∣B)=∣A∩B∣∣B∣=13.P(A \mid B) = \frac{|A \cap B|}{|B|} = \frac{1}{3}.

Watch out

A common error is to think that "at least one male" means the first child is male, or to list the reduced space as {MM, MF} — forgetting that FM (first female, second male) is also valid. Always list all ordered pairs.


(ii) Both females, given elder child is female

  1. Define events.

    Let CC = "both children are females" = {FF}\{FF\}.

    Let DD = "the elder child is female" = {FF,FM}\{FF, FM\}.

  2. Find the reduced sample space.

    Condition DD keeps only outcomes where the first child (elder) is female: FF and FM. These are equally likely.

  3. Count favorable outcomes.

    Only FF satisfies CC. So 1 outcome.

  4. Compute probability.

P(C∣D)=∣C∩D∣∣D∣=12.P(C \mid D) = \frac{|C \cap D|}{|D|} = \frac{1}{2}.

Tip

Notice the difference: "at least one male" is a symmetric condition that keeps three outcomes, while "elder is female" is an asymmetric condition that keeps only two. That's why the answers differ — the condition itself determines how much the sample space shrinks.


✓Final answer

  1. The probability that both are males given at least one male is 13\boxed{\frac{1}{3}}.
  2. The probability that both are females given the elder is female is 12\boxed{\frac{1}{2}}.

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