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Miscellaneous Exercise · Q9

Q.An electronic assembly consists of two subsystems, say, A and B. From previous testing procedures, the following probabilities are assumed to be known: P(A fails)=0.2P(A \text{ fails}) = 0.2 P(B fails alone)=0.15P(B \text{ fails alone}) = 0.15 P(A and B fail)=0.15P(A \text{ and B fail}) = 0.15 Evaluate the following probabilities

(i) P(A fails|B has failed)P(A \text{ fails|B has failed})
(ii) P(A fails alone)P(A \text{ fails alone})
Telangana TsbieTextbookSubjective· 3mImportance★★★★★
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This problem uses the definition of conditional probability and the relationship between joint, marginal, and "alone" events. The key is to interpret "B fails alone" as P(B fails∩A does not fail)P(B \text{ fails} \cap A \text{ does not fail}), then use the given data to find P(B fails)P(B \text{ fails}) and P(A fails alone)P(A \text{ fails alone}). The answers are (i) P(A fails∣B fails)=0.5P(A \text{ fails} \mid B \text{ fails}) = 0.5 and (ii) P(A fails alone)=0.05P(A \text{ fails alone}) = 0.05.


We are given three probabilities:

  • P(A fails)=0.2P(A \text{ fails}) = 0.2
  • P(B fails alone)=0.15P(B \text{ fails alone}) = 0.15
  • P(A and B fail)=0.15P(A \text{ and } B \text{ fail}) = 0.15

The phrase "B fails alone" means B fails and A does not fail. In set notation: P(B fails∩A does not fail)=0.15P(B \text{ fails} \cap A \text{ does not fail}) = 0.15.

Similarly, "A fails alone" means P(A fails∩B does not fail)P(A \text{ fails} \cap B \text{ does not fail}), which we need to find in part (ii).


Step-by-step reasoning

1. Understand the events and notation

Let:

  • AA = event that subsystem A fails
  • BB = event that subsystem B fails

We know:

  • P(A)=0.2P(A) = 0.2
  • P(A∩B)=0.15P(A \cap B) = 0.15
  • P(B∩Ac)=0.15P(B \cap A^c) = 0.15 (B fails alone)

We want:

  • (i) P(A∣B)=P(A∩B)P(B)P(A \mid B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}
  • (ii) P(A∩Bc)P(A \cap B^c) (A fails alone)

2. Find P(B)P(B) first

The event "B fails" can happen in two mutually exclusive ways:

  • B fails and A fails (joint failure)
  • B fails and A does not fail (B alone)

So:

P(B)=P(A∩B)+P(B∩Ac)P(B) = P(A \cap B) + P(B \cap A^c)

Substitute the known values:

P(B)=0.15+0.15=0.3P(B) = 0.15 + 0.15 = 0.3

Tip

Always break a marginal probability into the sum of joint probabilities with the other event and its complement. This is the law of total probability in its simplest form.

3. Compute P(A∣B)P(A \mid B)

Using the definition:

P(A∣B)=P(A∩B)P(B)=0.150.3=0.5P(A \mid B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} = \frac{0.15}{0.3} = 0.5 …

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