Q.If a leap year is selected at random, what is the chance that it will contain 53 tuesdays?
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🔒 Start your 14-day free trial to unlock the full solution →Concept understanding — Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
Roll a die and ask "what is the chance of an even number?" — that is 3/6. But suppose someone tells you the result is greater than 3. Now you are no longer looking at all six faces, only at {4,5,6}, and two of those (4 and 6) are even, so the probability becomes 2/3. That change — from the probability of A to the probability of A given that B has already occurred — is conditional probability.
The Idea: Shrink the Sample Space
Conditioning on B throws away every outcome where B is false and treats B as the new "whole world." You measure A only against what is still possible.
Think of filtering a table of data: unconditional probability uses every row; conditional probability keeps only the rows where the condition is true.
The Definition
For events A and B with P(B)>0,
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B).
We divide by P(B) to rescale so that B itself has probability 1; the surviving part of A is the overlap A∩B. Checking the die: P(A∩B)=P({4,6})=62 and P(B)=63, so P(A∣B)=3/62/6=32, matching the intuition.
Rearranging gives the multiplication rule P(A∩B)=P(A∣B)P(B), which is usually the easier way to compute a joint probability when a problem says "given that."
Two Cautions
- P(A∣B) and P(B∣A) are generally not equal; swapping them is the classic mistake. They are linked by Bayes' theorem, P(A∣B)=P(B)P(B∣A)P(A). …
Concept: Conditional Probability — we need the probability of 53 Tuesdays given the year is a leap year.
A leap year has 366 days, which is 52 weeks (364 days) plus 2 extra days. These 2 extra days can be any of the 7 consecutive pairs starting from Sunday: (Sun, Mon), (Mon, Tue), (Tue, Wed), (Wed, Thu), (Thu, Fri), (Fri, Sat), (Sat, Sun). …
The key idea is that a leap year has 366 days = 52 weeks + 2 extra days. The chance of 53 Tuesdays equals the probability that one of those two extra days is a Tuesday. Since the two extra days are equally likely to be any consecutive pair of weekdays, the required probability is 72.
Why conditional probability?
This problem is a classic application of equally likely outcomes — not conditional probability in the strict sense, but the reasoning is similar: we are counting favourable arrangements among all possible arrangements of the extra days. A leap year has 366 days, which is exactly 52 weeks (giving 52 Tuesdays) plus 2 extra days. For the year to have 53 Tuesdays, at least one of those two extra days must be a Tuesday.
Step-by-step reasoning
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Structure of a leap year
A leap year has 366 days.
366=52×7+2
So there are 52 complete weeks (each containing one Tuesday) and 2 additional days.
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What are the possible extra days?
The two extra days are consecutive. If the year starts on a particular weekday, the extra days are the first two days of the year. But since the year is selected at random, the starting day is equally likely to be any of the 7 weekdays.
Therefore, the pair of extra days can be any of the 7 possible consecutive pairs:
(Monday, Tuesday), (Tuesday, Wednesday), (Wednesday, Thursday), (Thursday, Friday), (Friday, Saturday), (Saturday, Sunday), (Sunday, Monday).
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Counting favourable outcomes
We need the year to have 53 Tuesdays. That happens if either of the two extra days is a Tuesday.
- In the pair (Monday, Tuesday): Tuesday appears once → favourable.
- In the pair (Tuesday, Wednesday): Tuesday appears once → favourable.
- In the other five pairs, Tuesday does not appear at all. So exactly 2 out of the 7 possible pairs contain a Tuesday.
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Probability calculation …
Method: Calendar probability by counting the "extra" days
Use this for "probability of 53 of a given weekday in a year" questions: break the year into whole weeks plus a few leftover days and reason about those leftovers.
Steps
Step 1: Split the total days into complete weeks plus a remainder.
A leap year: 366=52×7+2, so 52 full weeks (which already supply 52 of every weekday) plus 2 leftover days. A common year leaves 365=52×7+1, i.e. 1 leftover.
Step 2: List the equally likely possibilities for the leftover days.
The leftover days are consecutive. For 2 leftovers there are 7 equally likely consecutive pairs: (Sun, Mon), (Mon, Tue), …, (Sat, Sun). Enumerate them as the sample space.
Step 3: Count how many possibilities give the extra weekday you want. …
Common Mistakes
Mistake 1: Using one extra day (the common-year case) for a leap year.
Why it's wrong: a leap year has 366=52×7+2 days, so there are 2 leftover days, not 1. Correct approach: work with the 7 equally likely consecutive pairs, giving 72 (a common year would give 71).
Mistake 2: Treating the two extra days as independent single days. …
Showing the 12 most recent of 30 on this concept.
- TG EAPCET 2024Set eng-2024-05-11-FN1 markMCQQ.The numbers 2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13 are written on six distinct paper chits. If 3 of them are chosen at random, then the probability that the sum of the numbers on the obtained chits is divisible by 3, is (A) 207 (B) 206 (C) 205 (D) 51
›Reveal solutionSolution
The key idea is to classify each number by its remainder modulo 3, then count only those 3‑card combinations whose remainders sum to a multiple of 3. The probability is 207, which corresponds to option (A).
We have six numbers: 2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13.
We pick 3 at random. The total number of ways is (36)=20.
We want the probability that the sum of the three chosen numbers is divisible by 3.
Why classify by remainder?
A number’s remainder modulo 3 determines whether it contributes 0, 1, or 2 to the total sum mod 3. The sum of three numbers is divisible by 3 exactly when the sum of their remainders is 0 mod 3. This turns a problem about specific numbers into a simple counting problem about remainder classes.
Step-by-step
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Find each number’s remainder mod 3
- 2≡2
- 3≡0
- 5≡2
- 7≡1
- 11≡2
- 13≡1
So we have:
- Remainder 0: {3} → 1 number
- Remainder 1: {7, 13} → 2 numbers
- Remainder 2: {2, 5, 11} → 3 numbers
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Which remainder combinations sum to 0 mod 3?
Let (r1, r2, r3) be the remainders of the three chosen numbers. We need r1+r2+r3≡0(mod3).
The possible triples (order doesn’t matter) are:
- (0,0,0) — all three have remainder 0
- (1,1,1) — all three have remainder 1
- (2,2,2) — all three have remainder 2
- (0,1,2) — one of each remainder
No other triple works (e.g., (0,0,1) sums to 1, etc.).
-
Count the number of 3‑card combinations for each case
- (0,0,0): Only 1 number with remainder 0, so impossible. Count = 0. …
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- TG EAPCET 2024Set eng-2024-05-11-FN1 markMCQQ.If 4 letters are selected at random from the letters of the word PROBABILITY, then the probability of getting a combination of letters in which atleast one letter is repeated is (A) 17043 (B) 6119 (C) 18457 (D) 15529
›Reveal solutionSolution
The multiset PROBABILITY has 9 distinct letters (with B and I each twice). Total 4-letter selections =183; those with a repeat =57, so the probability is 18357=6119, option (B).
Letters of PROBABILITY: P,R,O,B,A,B,I,L,I,T,Y — 11 letters, 9 distinct types, with B and I appearing twice each.
Step 1 — Total number of 4-letter selections (order does not matter).
Count by repetition pattern:
- All four distinct: (49)=126.
- Exactly one repeated pair (B or I) plus two other distinct letters: 2×(28)=2×28=56.
- Two repeated pairs, i.e. {B,B,I,I}: 1 way. …
- TG EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-10-FN1 markMCQQ.Three persons A, B, C planned to have a running race among themselves. If the probability that A wins the race is thrice that of B and the probability that B wins the race is 23 times that of C, then the difference in probabilities of A and C to win the race is (A) 32 (B) 21 (C) 145 (D) 73
›Reveal solutionSolution
With P(A)=149, P(C)=142, the difference is P(A)−P(C)=21.
Let P(C)=p. Then P(B)=23p and P(A)=3P(B)=29p.
The three probabilities sum to 1 (one of them must win):
29p+23p+p=7p=1 ⇒ p=71.
Hence
P(A)=29⋅71=149,P(C)=71=142. …
- TG EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-10-AN1 markMCQQ.A card is drawn randomly from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards. If A is the event of getting a diamond card and B is the event of getting an ace card, then the probability that exactly one of the events among A and B to occur is (A) 5215 (B) 134 (C) 5217 (D) 135
›Reveal solutionSolution
The probability that exactly one of the events A (diamond) or B (ace) occurs is the sum of their individual probabilities minus twice the probability of both occurring. The result is 5215, which corresponds to option (A).
We want the probability that exactly one of the two events happens — that is, either we draw a diamond that is not an ace, or we draw an ace that is not a diamond. This is a classic "exclusive or" (XOR) situation.
Why this approach works:
If we simply add P(A)+P(B), we count the case where both occur (the ace of diamonds) twice. To get exactly one, we subtract that double-counted overlap once more than usual — hence P(A)+P(B)−2P(A∩B).
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Identify the probabilities of each event individually.
- There are 13 diamonds in a deck of 52, so P(A)=5213=41.
- There are 4 aces, so P(B)=524=131.
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Find the probability that both events occur (the intersection).
- Only one card is both a diamond and an ace: the ace of diamonds.
- So P(A∩B)=521.
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Apply the formula for exactly one event.
- Exactly one of A or B occurs means: (A and not B) or (B and not A).
- The probability is:
P(exactly one)=P(A)+P(B)−2P(A∩B)
- Substitute the values:
5213+524−2⋅521=5213+4−2=5215
- Check against the options. …
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- TG EAPCET 2024Set eng-2024-05-09-FN1 markMCQQ.If the probability that a student selected at random from a particular college is good at mathematics is 0.6, then the probability of having two students who are good at mathematics in a group of 8 students of that college standing in front of the college is (A) 5826×32×7 (B) 5626×32×7 (C) 5628×32×7 (D) 5828×32×7
›Reveal solutionSolution
This is a binomial trial with n=8, p=0.6. P(X=2)=(28)(0.6)2(0.4)6=5828×32×7, option (D).
Binomial model
Each student is independently good at mathematics with probability p=0.6=53, so q=0.4=52. For n=8 students, the number good at mathematics is binomial, and we want exactly two:
P(X=2)=(28)p2q6=(28)(53)2(52)6.
Simplify
(28)=28,(53)2=5232,(52)6=5626. …
- TG EAPCET 2021Set eng-2021-08-04-FN1 markMCQQ.If 22Pr+1:20Pr+2=11:52 then r= (A) 3 (B) 5 (C) 7 (D) 9
›Reveal solutionSolution
This problem involves simplifying a ratio of permutations using the permutation formula and then solving the resulting algebraic equation. We find that r=7.
Concept and Intuition
Permutations deal with the arrangement of distinct items. The number of permutations of r items chosen from n distinct items is denoted by nPr and calculated using the formula:
nPr=(n−r)!n!
For this formula to be valid, certain conditions must be met:
- n must be a non-negative integer.
- r must be a non-negative integer.
- n≥r. This ensures that the term (n−r)! is well-defined (i.e., we do not have a factorial of a negative number).
In this problem, we are given a ratio of two permutation expressions. The key to solving such problems is to:
- Apply the permutation formula to expand each term.
- Simplify the resulting factorial expressions by cancelling common terms. Remember that k!=k×(k−1)! and generally k!=k×(k−1)×⋯×(k−m+1)×(k−m)!. This property is crucial for simplifying ratios of factorials.
- Solve the algebraic equation for r.
- Finally, check if the obtained value of r satisfies the conditions for permutations for both terms in the original problem.
Let's apply these ideas to the given problem.
Step-by-step Solution
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Write down the given ratio and apply the permutation formula.
We are given the ratio 20Pr+222Pr+1=5211.
Using the formula nPr=(n−r)!n!:
- For 22Pr+1: n=22, rperm=r+1. So, 22Pr+1=(22−(r+1))!22!=(21−r)!22!.
- For 20Pr+2: n=20, rperm=r+2. So, 20Pr+2=(20−(r+2))!20!=(18−r)!20!.
Substituting these into the ratio:
(18−r)!20!(21−r)!22!=5211
- Simplify the expression by rearranging and expanding factorials. We can rewrite the left side by inverting the denominator and multiplying:
(21−r)!22!×20!(18−r)!=5211
Now, we expand the larger factorials in terms of smaller ones to facilitate cancellation: * $22! = 22 \times 21 \times 20!$ * $(21-r)! = (21-r) \times (20-r) \times (19-r) \times (18-r)!$ Substitute these expansions into the equation:(21−r)(20−r)(19−r)(18−r)!22×21×20!×20!(18−r)!=5211
- Cancel common factorial terms. Notice that 20! in the numerator and denominator cancel out. Similarly, (18−r)! in the numerator and denominator cancel out:
(21−r)(20−r)(19−r)22×21=5211
Calculate the product in the numerator: $22 \times 21 = 462$.(21−r)(20−r)(19−r)462=5211
- Solve the algebraic equation for r. …
- TG EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-02-AN1 markMCQQ.Let P=147258369 be a matrix. Three elements of this matrix P are selected at random. A is the event of having the three elements whose sum is odd. B is the event of selecting the three elements which are in a row or column. Then P(A)+P(BA)= (A) 420221 (B) 2117 (C) 2021 (D) 23
›Reveal solutionSolution
We compute the probability that three randomly chosen entries sum to an odd number, then the conditional probability of that event given they lie in a single row or column, and add them. The result simplifies to 2117, which is option (B).
Concept & Intuition
The matrix has 9 entries. We pick 3 of them uniformly at random.
- For event A (odd sum), we need to count how many triples have an odd total. Since odd/even depends only on parity, we first classify the 9 numbers by parity: 1,3,5,7,9 are odd (5 odds); 2,4,6,8 are even (4 evens). The sum of three numbers is odd iff we have an odd number of odd entries among them — i.e., 1 or 3 odds.
- For event B (all in one row or one column), we count triples that lie entirely in a single row (3 rows, each row has 3 entries → 1 triple per row) or entirely in a single column (3 columns, each column has 3 entries → 1 triple per column). That gives 3+3=6 triples.
- Then P(A/B) is the fraction of those 6 triples that also have an odd sum.
We compute both probabilities and add them.
Step-by-step
- Total number of ways to choose 3 entries from 9
(39)=84.
- Count triples with odd sum (event A)
- Case 1: exactly 1 odd, 2 evens Choose 1 odd from 5 odds: (15)=5 Choose 2 evens from 4 evens: (24)=6 Total: 5×6=30 triples.
- Case 2: exactly 3 odds, 0 evens Choose 3 odds from 5 odds: (35)=10 Total: 10 triples.
- So ∣A∣=30+10=40. Hence
P(A)=8440=2110.
- Count triples in a row or column (event B)
- Rows: 3 rows, each row has exactly 1 triple (all three entries). So 3 triples.
- Columns: 3 columns, each column has exactly 1 triple. So 3 triples.
- Total: ∣B∣=6. Hence
P(B)=846=141.
- Count triples that are both in a row/column AND have odd sum (event A∩B) Check each row and column for odd sum: …
- TG EAPCET 2021Set eng-2021-08-04-AN1 markMCQQ.A non-zero integer x is selected randomly from the set of integers {x∈Z/−25≤x≤25,x=0}. The probability that x+6≤x135 is (A) 2512 (B) 52 (C) 53 (D) 2514
›Reveal solutionSolution
We need to find the probability that a non-zero integer x from the set {−25,…,25} satisfies the inequality x+6≤x135. We first determine the total number of possible integers (the sample space), which is 50. Then, we solve the inequality to find the integers that satisfy it within the given range (the event space), which are 20 integers. The probability is 52.
The problem asks for a probability, which is defined as the ratio of the number of favorable outcomes to the total number of possible outcomes. Our strategy will be to first identify the complete set of possible integers x (the sample space) and count them. Then, we will solve the given inequality to find which of these integers satisfy the condition (the event space) and count those. Finally, we will compute the ratio.
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Determine the Sample Space:
The problem states that x is a non-zero integer selected from the set {x∈Z/−25≤x≤25,x=0}.
This means x can be any integer from −25 to 25, but x cannot be 0.
The integers in this range are {−25,−24,…,−1,0,1,…,24,25}.
The total count of integers from −25 to 25 (inclusive) is 25−(−25)+1=51.
Since x=0, we must exclude 0 from this count.
Therefore, the total number of possible outcomes (the size of the sample space) is 51−1=50.
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Solve the Inequality:
We need to find the integers x that satisfy the inequality x+6≤x135.
To solve rational inequalities, the most reliable method is to move all terms to one side and combine them into a single fraction. This avoids potential errors that arise from multiplying by a variable whose sign is unknown.
x+6−x135≤0
To combine these terms, we find a common denominator, which is x:
xx⋅x+x6⋅x−x135≤0
xx2+6x−135≤0
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Factor the Numerator:
Now, we need to find the roots of the quadratic expression in the numerator, x2+6x−135=0. We can use the quadratic formula x=2a−b±b2−4ac:
x=2(1)−6±62−4(1)(−135)
x=2−6±36+540
x=2−6±576
Recognizing that 242=576, we have:
x=2−6±24
This gives two roots:
x1=2−6−24=2−30=−15
x2=2−6+24=218=9
So, the numerator can be factored as (x−(−15))(x−9)=(x+15)(x−9).
The inequality now becomes x(x+15)(x−9)≤0.
Watch outA common mistake is to multiply both sides of the inequality by x. This is incorrect because the sign of x is unknown. If x is negative, multiplying by x would reverse the inequality sign. If x is positive, it would not. Handling these two cases separately is cumbersome and prone to error. The method of moving all terms to one side and analyzing critical points is more robust.
-
Determine Intervals Satisfying the Inequality:
The critical points are the values of x where the numerator or the denominator is zero. These are x=−15, x=0, and x=9. These points divide the number line into four intervals. We will test a value from each interval to determine the sign of the expression x(x+15)(x−9).
Interval Test Value (x) Sign of (x+15) Sign of (x−9) Sign of x Sign of x(x+15)(x−9) Condition ≤0 x<−15 −20 Negative Negative Negative (−)(−)(−)=(−) True −15<x<0 −1 Positive Negative Negative (−)(+)(−)=(+) False
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- TG EAPCET 2022Set eng-2022-07-20-AN1 markMCQQ.If X is a Poisson variate such that 35k=P(X=2)=P(X=3), then P(X=5)= (A) k (B) 41k (C) 21k (D) 43k
›Reveal solutionSolution
We use the Poisson Probability Mass Function to equate P(X=2) and P(X=3), which allows us to determine the parameter λ. Once λ is known, we can express P(X=5) in terms of k. The result is P(X=5)=43k.
The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that models the number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space, given a constant average rate of occurrence and independence of events. It is characterized by a single parameter, λ (lambda), which represents the average number of events in the given interval.
The core idea here is to use the given equality of probabilities, P(X=2)=P(X=3), to find the value of this parameter λ. Once λ is known, we can calculate any other probability P(X=x) using the Poisson Probability Mass Function (PMF). We are also given a relationship involving k, which we will use to express our final answer in terms of k.
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Recall the Poisson Probability Mass Function (PMF):
For a Poisson variate X with parameter λ, the probability of observing exactly x events is given by:
P(X=x)=x!e−λλx
where x=0,1,2,… and λ>0.
-
Use the given condition P(X=2)=P(X=3) to find λ:
Substitute x=2 and x=3 into the PMF:
P(X=2)=2!e−λλ2
P(X=3)=3!e−λλ3
Equating these two probabilities:
2!e−λλ2=3!e−λλ3
Since e−λ is never zero and λ must be positive (as probabilities are non-zero), we can divide both sides by e−λλ2:
2!1=3!λ
Recall that 2!=2×1=2 and 3!=3×2×1=6.
21=6λ
Multiply both sides by 6 to solve for λ:
λ=26=3
So, the parameter of the Poisson distribution is λ=3.
-
Express k in terms of λ (and e−λ):
We are given that 35k=P(X=2).
We know P(X=2)=2!e−λλ2. Substitute λ=3:
P(X=2)=2e−332=29e−3
Now, equate this to 35k:
35k=29e−3
Solve for k:
k=53×29e−3=1027e−3
-
Calculate P(X=5) using λ=3: …
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- TG EAPCET 2021Set eng-2021-08-04-FN1 markMCQQ.If the probability that an individual will suffer a bad reaction from an injection is 0.001, then the probability that out of 2000 individuals, exactly 3 individuals suffer a bad reaction is (A) 3e24 (B) e22 (C) 3e22 (D) 5e24
›Reveal solutionSolution
This is a rare-event problem where n=2000 is large and p=0.001 is small, so the Poisson approximation to the binomial distribution applies. The probability that exactly 3 individuals suffer a reaction is 3e24, which corresponds to option (A).
The key insight here is that we are dealing with a binomial experiment: 2000 independent trials, each with a constant probability of "success" (bad reaction) p=0.001. The exact probability of exactly 3 successes would be (32000)(0.001)3(0.999)1997. That expression is perfectly correct but computationally messy — and more importantly, it misses the conceptual point.
When n is large and p is very small, the binomial distribution is well approximated by the Poisson distribution with parameter λ=np. This is the classic "rare event" scenario. The Poisson distribution gives us a clean, closed-form answer that matches one of the given options exactly.
Let's work through it step by step.
- Identify the exact binomial probability. For n=2000, p=0.001, the probability of exactly k=3 reactions is
P(X=3)=(32000)(0.001)3(0.999)1997.
This is the truth, but we won't evaluate it directly — the numbers are unwieldy and the exam expects the Poisson approximation.
- Compute the Poisson parameter λ.
λ=np=2000×0.001=2.
This λ=2 is the average number of bad reactions expected in 2000 individuals.
- Apply the Poisson approximation. For a Poisson random variable Y with mean λ,
P(Y=k)=k!e−λλk.
Here λ=2 and k=3, so …
- TG EAPCET 2023Set eng-2023-05-12-FN1 markMCQQ.Two numbers b and c are chosen at random in succession without replacement from the set {1,2,3,…,9}. Then the probability that x2+bx+c>0, ∀x∈R is (A) 7229 (B) 8132 (C) 14345 (D) 12582
›Reveal solutionSolution
The condition x2+bx+c>0 for all real x is equivalent to the discriminant b2−4c<0. Counting ordered pairs (b,c) from {1,…,9} without replacement that satisfy b2<4c gives 29 favorable outcomes out of 72 total, so the probability is 7229, which is option (A).
Why this approach works
A quadratic x2+bx+c that is always positive (for every real x) must have no real roots and open upward. Since the coefficient of x2 is 1>0, the condition reduces to the discriminant being negative: b2−4c<0, i.e. b2<4c.
We are choosing b and c without replacement from {1,…,9}, so each ordered pair (b,c) with b=c is equally likely. The total number of such ordered pairs is 9×8=72. We just need to count how many of them satisfy b2<4c.
Step-by-step counting
1. Understand the inequality
We need b2<4c. Since c is an integer from 1 to 9, rewrite as c>4b2. For each b, we count the number of c values (different from b) that are strictly greater than b2/4.
2. Compute for each b
- b=1: b2/4=0.25, so c>0.25 means c≥1. All c from 1 to 9 except c=1 (since b=c) work. That gives 8 choices.
- b=2: b2/4=1, so c>1 means c≥2. Excluding c=2 leaves {3,4,5,6,7,8,9} → 7 choices.
- b=3: b2/4=2.25, so c>2.25 means c≥3. Excluding c=3 leaves {4,5,6,7,8,9} → 6 choices.
- b=4: b2/4=4, so c>4 means c≥5. Excluding c=4 (which isn't in this set anyway) gives {5,6,7,8,9} → 5 choices.
- b=5: b2/4=6.25, so c>6.25 means c≥7. Excluding c=5 (not in set) gives {7,8,9} → 3 choices.
- b=6: b2/4=9, so c>9 means c≥10, but max c is 9. No c works → 0 choices. …
- TG EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-02-AN1 markMCQQ.A typist claims that he prepares a typed page with typo errors of 1 per 10 pages. In a typing assignment of 40 pages, if the probability that the typo errors are at most 2 is p, then e2p= (A) 5 (B) 13 (C) 13e−2 (D) 5e−2
›Reveal solutionSolution
The problem models rare typos with a Poisson distribution (mean = 4 typos in 40 pages). The probability of at most 2 typos is p=e−4(1+4+8)=13e−4, so e2p=13e−2, matching option (C).
We have a typist who averages 1 typo per 10 pages. That’s a small rate for a rare event over a fixed “area” (pages). When events are rare and independent, the Poisson distribution is the natural choice — it counts the number of occurrences in a fixed interval when the average rate is known. Here, the “interval” is 40 pages.
Why Poisson?
- Each page has a small chance of a typo.
- Pages are independent.
- We care about the count of typos, not their arrangement. The Poisson distribution with parameter λ (the mean number of events in the interval) fits perfectly.
- Find the average number of typos in 40 pages. The rate is 1 typo per 10 pages, so in 40 pages:
λ=10 pages1 typo×40 pages=4.
- Set up the Poisson probability formula. For a Poisson random variable X with mean λ:
P(X=k)=k!e−λλk.
We need P(X≤2)=P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2).
-
Compute each term.
- P(X=0)=0!e−4⋅40=e−4.
- P(X=1)=1!e−4⋅41=4e−4.
- P(X=2)=2!e−4⋅42=216e−4=8e−4.
-
Sum them to get p.
p=e−4+4e−4+8e−4=13e−4. …
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