Q.A black and a red dice are rolled.
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Conditional Probability
Roll a die and ask "what is the chance of an even number?" — that is 3/6. But suppose someone tells you the result is greater than 3. Now you are no longer looking at all six faces, only at {4,5,6}, and two of those (4 and 6) are even, so the probability becomes 2/3. That change — from the probability of A to the probability of A given that B has already occurred — is conditional probability.
The Idea: Shrink the Sample Space
Conditioning on B throws away every outcome where B is false and treats B as the new "whole world." You measure A only against what is still possible.
Think of filtering a table of data: unconditional probability uses every row; conditional probability keeps only the rows where the condition is true.
The Definition
For events A and B with P(B)>0,
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B).
We divide by P(B) to rescale so that B itself has probability 1; the surviving part of A is the overlap A∩B. Checking the die: P(A∩B)=P({4,6})=62 and P(B)=63, so P(A∣B)=3/62/6=32, matching the intuition.
Rearranging gives the multiplication rule P(A∩B)=P(A∣B)P(B), which is usually the easier way to compute a joint probability when a problem says "given that."
Two Cautions
- P(A∣B) and P(B∣A) are generally not equal; swapping them is the classic mistake. They are linked by Bayes' theorem, P(A∣B)=P(B)P(B∣A)P(A). …
Concept: Conditional Probability — P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B), where we restrict the sample space to the given condition.
(a) Let B be the event: black die shows 5.
Given black = 5, the possible outcomes for the red die are {1,2,3,4,5,6}.
We need sum >9, i.e. red die must be 5 or 6 (since 5+5=10, 5+6=11). …
Conditional probability is found by restricting the sample space to the given condition. For (a), the probability is 31; for (b), the probability is 91.
Why Conditional Probability Works This Way
When we say "given that" something has happened, we are no longer looking at all possible outcomes — we only care about the outcomes that satisfy the condition. The formula is:
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B)
But in problems with equally likely outcomes (like dice rolls), it's often easier to count: just count the outcomes in the condition, then count how many of those also satisfy the event.
For equally likely outcomes:
P(A∣B)=Number of outcomes in BNumber of outcomes in A∩B
Part (a): Sum > 9, given black die shows 5
1. Identify the condition.
The black die shows a 5. So the possible outcomes are:
(5,1),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6)
That's 6 equally likely outcomes.
2. Identify the event.
We want the sum to be greater than 9. With black = 5, the red die must be such that 5+red>9, i.e., red > 4. So red can be 5 or 6.
That gives exactly 2 outcomes: (5,5) and (5,6).
3. Compute the probability.
P(sum>9∣black=5)=62=31
You don't need the full 36-outcome space here — just the 6 outcomes where black = 5. That's the whole point of conditioning.
Part (b): Sum = 8, given red die shows a number less than 4
1. Identify the condition.
Red die shows a number less than 4, so red can be 1, 2, or 3. For each red value, black can be anything from 1 to 6. So the total outcomes satisfying the condition are:
3×6=18 …
Method: Conditioning on a row or block of the two-dice grid
Use this whenever two distinguishable dice are rolled and the condition fixes one die's value (or restricts it to a range), and you want the probability of a sum event given that condition.
Steps
Step 1: Picture the 6×6 grid.
Two dice give 36 equally likely ordered pairs. The conditioning event selects a sub-block of this grid, and within that block outcomes stay equally likely, so
P(A∣B)=n(B)n(A∩B).
Step 2: Count the conditioning block n(B).
If one die is fixed to a single value, B has 6 outcomes; if a die is restricted to m allowed values, B has 6m outcomes (e.g. "red <4" allows 3 values, so 6×3=18).
Step 3: Inside that block, count the outcomes meeting the sum condition. …
Common Mistakes
Mistake 1: Using 36 in the denominator.
Why it's wrong: "given the black die shows 5" restricts the world to the 6 outcomes (5,1),…,(5,6), so in (a) the answer is 62=31, not 362. Correct approach: count favourable outcomes only within the conditioned set.
Mistake 2: In part (b), forgetting that "red <4" allows three values. …
Showing the 12 most recent of 69 on this concept.
- AP EAPCET 2023Set eng-2023-05-16-AN1 markMCQQ.Two dice are rolled. If A denote the event that the same number shows on each die and B denote the event that the sum of the numbers on both dice is greater than 7, then P(A∣B) and P(B∣A) respectively are (A) 52,41 (B) 51,21 (C) 51,41 (D) 21,53
›Reveal solutionSolution
Counting the 36 equally likely dice outcomes directly gives P(A∣B)=51 and P(B∣A)=21.
Concept and Intuition
With two fair dice there are 36 equally likely outcomes, so every probability here reduces to simple counting: enumerate the outcomes in A, in B, and in A∩B, then apply the conditional probability formula P(X∣Y)=P(Y)P(X∩Y) directly as a ratio of counts.
Step-by-Step Solution
- A = "same number on each die": outcomes (1,1),(2,2),(3,3),(4,4),(5,5),(6,6) — 6 outcomes, so P(A)=366.
- B = "sum >7", i.e. sum ∈{8,9,10,11,12}. Counting pairs per sum: sum 8 has 5 pairs, 9 has 4, 10 has 3, 11 has 2, 12 has 1 — total 5+4+3+2+1=15 outcomes, so P(B)=3615.
- A∩B: doubles with sum >7 — check each double: (4,4) sum 8 ✓, (5,5) sum 10 ✓, (6,6) sum 12 ✓; (1,1),(2,2),(3,3) have sums 2,4,6, all ≤7 — excluded. So A∩B has 3 outcomes, P(A∩B)=363. …
- AP EAPCET 2023Set eng-2023-05-17-AN1 markMCQQ.Three boxes B1, B2 and B3 contain balls with different colors as follows:A die is thrown. Box B1 is chosen if either 1 or 2 turns up. Box B2 is chosen if 3 or 4 turns up and box B3 is chosen if 5 or 6 turns up. Having chosen a box in this way, a ball is drawn at random from that box. If the ball drawn is found to be Red, then the probability that it is drawn from box B2 is (A) 127 (B) 125 (C) 121 (D) 263
White Black Red B1 2 1 2 B2 3 2 4 B3 4 3 2 ›Reveal solutionSolution
A Bayes'-theorem problem: reverse the conditional probability "ball is Red, which box?" using the total-probability formula.
Concept and Intuition
Bayes' theorem lets us "invert" a conditional probability. We know P(Red∣Bi) for each box and the prior P(Bi) (each 1/3 since the die is fair and each box corresponds to two faces); we want the posterior P(B2∣Red).
Step-by-Step Solution
- Totals in each box: B1: 2+1+2=5; B2: 3+2+4=9; B3: 4+3+2=9.
- P(Red∣B1)=52, P(Red∣B2)=94, P(Red∣B3)=92.
- Each box has prior probability 31 (each box corresponds to two die faces out of six).
- Total probability: P(Red)=31(52+94+92)=31(52+32)=31⋅1516=4516. …
- AP EAPCET 2023Set eng-2023-05-17-FN1 markMCQQ.A pair of dice is thrown. Then the probability that either of the dice shows 2 when their sum is 6 is (A) 21 (B) 51 (C) 52 (D) 53
›Reveal solutionSolution
This is a conditional probability: restrict the sample space to pairs summing to 6, then count how many of those have a 2 on either die.
Concept and Intuition
"Given that the sum is 6" restricts attention to only those (die1, die2) pairs whose total is 6. Within that restricted, equally-likely set, we simply count the favourable outcomes.
Step-by-Step Solution
- Pairs (d1,d2) with d1+d2=6: (1,5),(2,4),(3,3),(4,2),(5,1) — 5 outcomes, each equally likely given the sum is 6.
- Favourable outcomes (either die shows 2): (2,4) and (4,2) — 2 outcomes.
- Required probability =52.
Common Mistakes …
- AP EAPCET 2024Set eng-2024-05-22-FN1 markMCQQ.Two persons A and B throw three unbiased dice one after the another. If A gets the sum 13, then the probability that B gets higher sum is (A) 2165 (B) 274 (C) 21635 (D) 21620
›Reveal solutionSolution
This tests knowing (or deriving) the distribution of the sum of three dice and just needs P(sum>13) since B's throw is independent of A's. Answer: 35/216.
Concept and Intuition
Since the two people throw independently, "A got 13" tells us nothing about B's throw — we just need P(sum of 3 dice>13)=P(sum≥14) out of all 63=216 equally likely outcomes.
Step-by-Step Solution
- Total outcomes for three dice: 63=216.
- The number of ways to get sum s with 3 dice is symmetric: N(s)=N(21−s) (since replacing each die value v by 7−v maps sum s to 21−s).
- Known counts: N(3)=1,N(4)=3,N(5)=6,N(6)=10,N(7)=15; by symmetry N(18)=1,N(17)=3,N(16)=6,N(15)=10,N(14)=15. …
- AP EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-12-FN1 markMCQQ.A die is thrown three times. If the sum of the numbers thrown is 15, then the probability that the first throw was a Four, is (A) 61 (B) 51 (C) 1085 (D) 1081
›Reveal solutionSolution
A conditional probability found by directly counting favourable die-triples against all triples summing to the given total.
Concept and Intuition
P(first=4∣sum=15)=#{triples with sum=15}#{triples with first=4, sum=15} — a straightforward application of conditional probability by counting, since all 63 triples are equally likely.
Step-by-Step Solution
- If the first throw is 4, the other two throws (each from 1 to 6) must sum to 15−4=11.
- Pairs of dice summing to 11: (5,6) and (6,5) — 2 ways.
- Now count all triples (a,b,c), each in 1–6, with a+b+c=15. Substitute a′=6−a,b′=6−b,c′=6−c (each in 0–5): then a′+b′+c′=18−15=3.
- Number of non-negative integer solutions to a′+b′+c′=3 is (23+2)=10; since 3<5 none violate the upper bound of 5, so all 10 are valid.
- So there are 10 triples with sum 15 in total. …
- AP EAPCET 2024Set eng-2024-05-20-FN1 markMCQQ.Two digits are selected at random from the digits 1 through 9. If their sum is even, then the probability that both are odd is (A) 83 (B) 21 (C) 85 (D) 43
›Reveal solutionSolution
Conditioning on 'sum even' restricts to same-parity pairs; among those, the odd-odd pairs make up 5/8.
Concept and Intuition
Two digits sum to an even number exactly when they have the same parity (both odd or both even) — an odd plus an even is always odd. This turns the conditional-probability question into a simple counting problem over same-parity pairs only.
Step-by-Step Solution
- Digits 1 through 9: odd ={1,3,5,7,9} (5 digits), even ={2,4,6,8} (4 digits).
- Sum is even ⟺ both digits are odd, or both are even.
- Number of ways to choose 2 odd digits: (25)=10.
- Number of ways to choose 2 even digits: (24)=6.
- Total ways with even sum: 10+6=16. …
- AP EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-18-FN1 markMCQQ.Two balls are drawn at random from a box containing 4 white, 6 black balls one after the other without replacement. If it is known that second ball drawn is black, then the probability that the first ball drawn is also black is (A) 115 (B) 95 (C) 125 (D) 135
›Reveal solutionSolution
Conditional probability with sampling without replacement, solved with Bayes' theorem; answer is 95.
Concept and Intuition
When balls are drawn one after another without replacement, the marginal probability that any particular draw (say the 2nd) is black equals the overall proportion of black balls, 106 — position doesn't matter for the marginal event by symmetry. To find the conditional probability of the first draw given information about the second, we use Bayes' theorem: we need the joint probability of both events and divide by the marginal probability of the conditioning event.
Step-by-Step Solution
- Total balls: 4 white (W) + 6 black (B) = 10.
- P(2nd is black)=P(1st B, 2nd B)+P(1st W, 2nd B) =106⋅95+104⋅96=9030+9024=9054=53.
- P(1st black and 2nd black)=106⋅95=9030=31. …
- AP EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-23-AN1 markMCQQ.A die is thrown twice. Let A be the event of getting a prime number when the die is thrown first time and B be the event of getting an even number when the die is thrown second time. Then P(A/Bˉ)= (A) 21 (B) 32 (C) 51 (D) 53
›Reveal solutionSolution
Since A and B (hence Bˉ) come from two independent throws of the die, conditioning on Bˉ does not change P(A); the answer is 1/2.
Concept and Intuition
When two events are determined by physically independent trials (first throw vs second throw of a die), any conditional probability between them collapses to the unconditional probability — conditioning on an independent event changes nothing.
Step-by-Step Solution
- A: prime number on the first throw, i.e. outcome in {2,3,5}, so P(A)=63=21.
- B: even number on the second throw, i.e. outcome in {2,4,6}, so P(B)=21, and P(Bˉ)=21 (odd on the second throw). …
- AP EAPCET 2021Set eng-2021-08-25-FN1 markMCQQ.One ticket is selected at random from 50 tickets numbered 00,01,02,…49. The probability that sum of the digits is 10, given that product of the digits is 9 is (A) 109 (B) 41 (C) 21 (D) 252
›Reveal solutionSolution
Only two tickets (19 and 33) have digit-product 9, and only one of them (19) also has digit-sum 10, giving conditional probability 1/2.
Concept and Intuition
Conditional probability P(sum=10∣product=9) restricts attention entirely to the tickets satisfying the "given" condition (product =9), then asks what fraction of those also satisfy the target condition (sum =10).
Step-by-Step Solution
- List all two-digit combinations (d1,d2) with d1∈{0,1,2,3,4} (tens digit, since tickets run 00–49) and d2∈{0,…,9} (units digit) whose product is 9:
- d1=1,d2=9: ticket 19.
- d1=3,d2=3: ticket 33.
- No other integer pairs with d1≤4 give product 9.
- So the "product = 9" event has exactly 2 tickets: {19,33}.
- Check digit sums: 19→1+9=10 ✓; 33→3+3=6 ✗.
- Only 1 out of these 2 tickets also has digit-sum 10. …
- List all two-digit combinations (d1,d2) with d1∈{0,1,2,3,4} (tens digit, since tickets run 00–49) and d2∈{0,…,9} (units digit) whose product is 9:
- AP EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-21-FN1 markMCQQ.A person is known to speak the truth in 3 out of 4 occasions. If he throws a die and reports that it is six, then the probability that it is actually six is (A) 83 (B) 72 (C) 91 (D) 54
›Reveal solutionSolution
A classic Bayes'-theorem problem: combine the prior P(six)=1/6 with the witness's reliability 3/4 to get the posterior probability it's actually six, given he reports six. The answer is 3/8.
Concept and Intuition
Before he speaks, the die has P(six)=1/6. His report is evidence, but he isn't perfectly reliable (truthful 3/4 of the time). Bayes' theorem updates the prior probability using how likely the report "six" is under each of the two possibilities (six actually occurred vs. it didn't).
Step-by-Step Solution
- Let E1 = the die actually shows six, E2 = it doesn't. P(E1)=61, P(E2)=65.
- Let A = he reports "six". If E1 occurred, he reports six truthfully with probability 43: P(A∣E1)=43.
- If E2 occurred, he reports "six" only if he lies, with probability 41: P(A∣E2)=41.
- By Bayes' theorem:
P(E1∣A)=P(A∣E1)P(E1)+P(A∣E2)P(E2)P(A∣E1)P(E1).
- Numerator: 43⋅61=243=81.
- Denominator's second term: 41⋅65=245.
- Sum =243+245=248=31. …
- AP EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-15-FN1 markMCQQ.For a biased die, the probabilities for different faces to turn up are given belowThe die is tossed and you are told that either face 1 or 2 has turned up. Then the probability that it is face 1 is (A) 3310 (B) 215 (C) 218 (D) 421
Face 1 2 3 4 5 6 Probability 0.1 0.32 0.21 0.15 0.05 0.17 ›Reveal solutionSolution
Conditioning on "face 1 or face 2" just means renormalizing the two individual probabilities so they add to 1.
Concept and Intuition
P(face 1∣face 1 or 2)=P(face 1)+P(face 2)P(face 1), since these two events are mutually exclusive and their union is the conditioning event.
Step-by-Step Solution
- P(1)=0.1, P(2)=0.32.
- P(1 or 2)=0.1+0.32=0.42.
- P(1∣1 or 2)=0.420.1=4210=215.
Common Mistakes …
- AP EAPCET 2024Set eng-2024-05-19-AN1 markMCQQ.A bag contains 2 white, 3 green and 5 red balls. If three balls are drawn one after the other without replacement, then the probability that the last ball drawn was red is (A) 32 (B) 43 (C) 95 (D) 21
›Reveal solutionSolution
By the symmetry of random sampling without replacement, the probability that the last ball drawn is red equals the overall fraction of red balls in the bag: 105=21.
Concept and Intuition
When balls are drawn one after another without replacement, every ball is equally likely to occupy any given position in the drawing order (all 10! orderings of the bag's balls are equally likely). Hence the marginal probability that the ball in any fixed position (first, second, ..., last) is red is just (number of red balls)/(total balls), independent of which position we pick.
Step-by-Step Solution
- Bag: 2 white +3 green +5 red =10 balls total.
- Consider a full random permutation of all 10 balls (drawing three is just looking at the first three positions of such a permutation, but the argument works for any position).
- By symmetry, P(ball in position k is red)=105 for every position k, including the third (last) position drawn here. …
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