Q.A fair die is rolled. Consider events E={1,3,5}, F={2,3} and G={2,3,4,5} Find
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🔒 Start your 14-day free trial to unlock the full solution →Concept understanding — Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
Roll a die and ask "what is the chance of an even number?" — that is 3/6. But suppose someone tells you the result is greater than 3. Now you are no longer looking at all six faces, only at {4,5,6}, and two of those (4 and 6) are even, so the probability becomes 2/3. That change — from the probability of A to the probability of A given that B has already occurred — is conditional probability.
The Idea: Shrink the Sample Space
Conditioning on B throws away every outcome where B is false and treats B as the new "whole world." You measure A only against what is still possible.
Think of filtering a table of data: unconditional probability uses every row; conditional probability keeps only the rows where the condition is true.
The Definition
For events A and B with P(B)>0,
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B).
We divide by P(B) to rescale so that B itself has probability 1; the surviving part of A is the overlap A∩B. Checking the die: P(A∩B)=P({4,6})=62 and P(B)=63, so P(A∣B)=3/62/6=32, matching the intuition.
Rearranging gives the multiplication rule P(A∩B)=P(A∣B)P(B), which is usually the easier way to compute a joint probability when a problem says "given that."
Two Cautions
- P(A∣B) and P(B∣A) are generally not equal; swapping them is the classic mistake. They are linked by Bayes' theorem, P(A∣B)=P(B)P(B∣A)P(A). …
Concept: Conditional Probability — P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B), provided P(B)=0.
Step 1: List probabilities.
Since the die is fair, each outcome has probability 61.
P(E)=63=21, P(F)=62=31, P(G)=64=32.
Step 2: Find intersections.
E∩F={3} → P(E∩F)=61.
E∩G={3,5} → P(E∩G)=62=31.
F∩G={2,3} → P(F∩G)=62=31.
E∪F={1,2,3,5} → P(E∪F)=64=32.
(E∪F)∩G={2,3,5} → P((E∪F)∩G)=63=21.
(E∩F)∩G={3} → P((E∩F)∩G)=61.
Step 3: Apply formula.
(i) P(E∣F)=1/31/6=21, P(F∣E)=1/21/6=31. …
Restrict the sample space to the given condition and use P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B). For the fair die: P(E∣F)=21, P(F∣E)=31, P(E∣G)=21, P(G∣E)=32, P((E∪F)∣G)=43, P((E∩F)∣G)=41.
Each outcome of {1,2,3,4,5,6} has probability 61. Given E={1,3,5}, F={2,3}, G={2,3,4,5}:
P(E)=63=21,P(F)=62=31,P(G)=64=32.
(i) P(E∣F) and P(F∣E). E∩F={3}, so P(E∩F)=61.
P(E∣F)=1/31/6=21,P(F∣E)=1/21/6=31.
(ii) P(E∣G) and P(G∣E). E∩G={3,5}, so P(E∩G)=62=31.
P(E∣G)=2/31/3=21,P(G∣E)=1/21/3=32. …
Method: Computing conditional probabilities directly from given event sets
Use this when the events are handed to you as explicit subsets of the sample space and you must evaluate several conditionals, including compound events E∪F and E∩F, and both directions P(A∣B) and P(B∣A).
Steps
Step 1: Fix the outcome probabilities.
For a fair die each of {1,…,6} has probability 61, so any event's probability is (its size)/6. Record P(E),P(F),P(G) once.
Step 2: Build the intersections you will need.
Work out the needed overlaps as sets first — E∩F, E∩G, and for compound conditionals (E∪F)∩G and (E∩F)∩G. Use E∪F = outcomes in either, E∩F = outcomes in both.
Step 3: Apply the definition each time.
P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B). …
Common Mistakes
Mistake 1: Swapping P(E∣F) with P(F∣E).
Why it's wrong: both share the numerator P(E∩F)=61 but divide by different quantities — P(E∣F)=1/31/6=21 while P(F∣E)=1/21/6=31. Correct approach: always divide by the probability of the event written after the bar.
Mistake 2: Forgetting to intersect with G before dividing in part (iii). …
Showing the 12 most recent of 69 on this concept.
- AP EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-23-AN1 markMCQQ.A die is thrown twice. Let A be the event of getting a prime number when the die is thrown first time and B be the event of getting an even number when the die is thrown second time. Then P(A/Bˉ)= (A) 21 (B) 32 (C) 51 (D) 53
›Reveal solutionSolution
Since A and B (hence Bˉ) come from two independent throws of the die, conditioning on Bˉ does not change P(A); the answer is 1/2.
Concept and Intuition
When two events are determined by physically independent trials (first throw vs second throw of a die), any conditional probability between them collapses to the unconditional probability — conditioning on an independent event changes nothing.
Step-by-Step Solution
- A: prime number on the first throw, i.e. outcome in {2,3,5}, so P(A)=63=21.
- B: even number on the second throw, i.e. outcome in {2,4,6}, so P(B)=21, and P(Bˉ)=21 (odd on the second throw). …
- AP EAPCET 2022Set eng-2022-07-06-FN1 markMCQQ.If E and F are events such that P(Fˉ)=0.7 and P(E∩F)=0.2, then P(E∣F) is (A) 2/3 (B) 1/3 (C) 3/4 (D) 1/4
›Reveal solutionSolution
This tests the basic conditional-probability formula together with the complement rule. P(E∣F)=2/3.
Concept and Intuition
P(E∣F) asks: given that F has already happened, what fraction of that reduced sample space does E∩F occupy? It is always P(F)P(E∩F), so first we need P(F) itself, which is given indirectly through its complement.
Step-by-Step Solution
- P(Fˉ)=0.7⇒P(F)=1−0.7=0.3.
- P(E∩F)=0.2 is given directly. …
- AP EAPCET 2023Set eng-2023-05-16-AN1 markMCQQ.Two dice are rolled. If A denote the event that the same number shows on each die and B denote the event that the sum of the numbers on both dice is greater than 7, then P(A∣B) and P(B∣A) respectively are (A) 52,41 (B) 51,21 (C) 51,41 (D) 21,53
›Reveal solutionSolution
Counting the 36 equally likely dice outcomes directly gives P(A∣B)=51 and P(B∣A)=21.
Concept and Intuition
With two fair dice there are 36 equally likely outcomes, so every probability here reduces to simple counting: enumerate the outcomes in A, in B, and in A∩B, then apply the conditional probability formula P(X∣Y)=P(Y)P(X∩Y) directly as a ratio of counts.
Step-by-Step Solution
- A = "same number on each die": outcomes (1,1),(2,2),(3,3),(4,4),(5,5),(6,6) — 6 outcomes, so P(A)=366.
- B = "sum >7", i.e. sum ∈{8,9,10,11,12}. Counting pairs per sum: sum 8 has 5 pairs, 9 has 4, 10 has 3, 11 has 2, 12 has 1 — total 5+4+3+2+1=15 outcomes, so P(B)=3615.
- A∩B: doubles with sum >7 — check each double: (4,4) sum 8 ✓, (5,5) sum 10 ✓, (6,6) sum 12 ✓; (1,1),(2,2),(3,3) have sums 2,4,6, all ≤7 — excluded. So A∩B has 3 outcomes, P(A∩B)=363. …
- AP EAPCET 2021Set eng-2021-08-23-FN1 markMCQQ.Let A and B be two events with P(A)=71, P(A/B)=52 and P(B)=72. Then the value P(B/A) is (A) 51 (B) 495 (C) 54 (D) 53
›Reveal solutionSolution
Chain the conditional-probability definition twice: first get P(A∩B) from P(A/B), then get P(B/A) from that.
Concept and Intuition
Conditional probability is defined as P(E/F)=P(F)P(E∩F). Given one conditional probability, we can back out the joint probability P(A∩B), and then use it (with the definition again, but conditioning the other way) to find the other conditional probability.
Step-by-Step Solution
- P(A/B)=P(B)P(A∩B)⇒P(A∩B)=P(A/B)⋅P(B)=52×72=354.
- Now use P(B/A)=P(A)P(A∩B)=1/74/35. …
- AP EAPCET 2023Set eng-2023-05-17-FN1 markMCQQ.A pair of dice is thrown. Then the probability that either of the dice shows 2 when their sum is 6 is (A) 21 (B) 51 (C) 52 (D) 53
›Reveal solutionSolution
This is a conditional probability: restrict the sample space to pairs summing to 6, then count how many of those have a 2 on either die.
Concept and Intuition
"Given that the sum is 6" restricts attention to only those (die1, die2) pairs whose total is 6. Within that restricted, equally-likely set, we simply count the favourable outcomes.
Step-by-Step Solution
- Pairs (d1,d2) with d1+d2=6: (1,5),(2,4),(3,3),(4,2),(5,1) — 5 outcomes, each equally likely given the sum is 6.
- Favourable outcomes (either die shows 2): (2,4) and (4,2) — 2 outcomes.
- Required probability =52.
Common Mistakes …
- AP EAPCET 2024Set eng-2024-05-20-FN1 markMCQQ.A, B, C are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events of a random experiment and E is an event that occurs in conjunction with one of the events A, B, C. The conditional Probabilities of E given the happening of A, B, C are respectively 0.6, 0.3 and 0.1. If P(A)=0.30 and P(B)=0.50, then P(C∣E)= (A) 352 (B) 3515 (C) 3518 (D) 3517
›Reveal solutionSolution
This is a direct Bayes' theorem application over three mutually exclusive, exhaustive causes; P(C∣E)=2/35.
Concept and Intuition
When an event E can occur alongside any of several mutually exclusive, exhaustive causes A,B,C, Bayes' theorem lets us find the probability of a particular cause given that E has occurred, by weighing each cause's prior probability by how likely E is under it, then normalizing.
Step-by-Step Solution
- Since A,B,C are mutually exclusive and exhaustive, P(C)=1−P(A)−P(B)=1−0.30−0.50=0.20.
- Total probability of E: P(E)=P(E∣A)P(A)+P(E∣B)P(B)+P(E∣C)P(C) =0.6(0.30)+0.3(0.50)+0.1(0.20)=0.18+0.15+0.02=0.35 …
- AP EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-26-FN1 markMCQQ.If two events A and B are such that P(Aˉ)=0.3, P(B)=0.4 and P(A∩Bˉ)=0.5, then P(B/(A∪Bˉ))= (A) 0.25 (B) 0.6 (C) 0.45 (D) 0.8
›Reveal solutionSolution
This tests careful set manipulation of conditional probability with a compound conditioning event A∪Bˉ. Answer: 0.25.
Concept and Intuition
Conditional probability P(B∣E)=P(E)P(B∩E) works exactly the same way when E is a compound event like A∪Bˉ — we just need to correctly compute P(E) and P(B∩E) using set algebra (distributing intersection over union, and using the fact that B and Bˉ are disjoint).
Step-by-Step Solution
- From P(Aˉ)=0.3, get P(A)=1−0.3=0.7.
- P(A∩Bˉ)=0.5 is given directly, so P(A∩B)=P(A)−P(A∩Bˉ)=0.7−0.5=0.2.
- Compute P(A∪Bˉ) using inclusion-exclusion: P(A∪Bˉ)=P(A)+P(Bˉ)−P(A∩Bˉ). Here P(Bˉ)=1−0.4=0.6, so P(A∪Bˉ)=0.7+0.6−0.5=0.8. …
- AP EAPCET 2024Set eng-2024-05-23-FN1 markMCQQ.It is given that in a random experiment events A and B are such that P(A)=41, P(A∣B)=21 and P(B∣A)=32 then P(B)= (A) 31 (B) 32 (C) 21 (D) 61
›Reveal solutionSolution
Using P(B∣A) to find P(A∩B), then dividing by P(A∣B), gives P(B)=31.
Concept and Intuition
The conditional probability definitions P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B) and P(B∣A)=P(A)P(A∩B) share the common quantity P(A∩B) — computing it from one equation lets us solve the other for the unknown probability.
Step-by-Step Solution
- From P(B∣A)=P(A)P(A∩B)=32, and P(A)=41: P(A∩B)=32×41=61.
- From P(A∣B)=P(B)P(A∩B)=21: P(B)=P(A∣B)P(A∩B)=1/21/6=31.
Common Mistakes …
- AP EAPCET 2025Set eng-2025-05-22-AN1 markMCQQ.There are three families F1,F2,F3. F1 has 2 boys and 1 girl; F2 has 1 boy and 2 girls; F3 has 1 boy and 1 girl. A family is randomly chosen and a child is chosen from that family randomly. If it is known that the child thus selected is a girl, then the probability that she is from F2 is (A) 94 (B) 92 (C) 73 (D) 75
›Reveal solutionSolution
Applying Bayes' theorem across the three equally-likely families gives P(F2∣girl)=94.
Concept and Intuition
This is a textbook application of Bayes' theorem: we're given the reverse conditional probabilities (family → probability of picking a girl) and asked for the forward one (girl picked → probability she's from a specific family).
Step-by-Step Solution
- Prior: P(F1)=P(F2)=P(F3)=31.
- P(girl∣F1)=31 (1 girl out of 3 children), P(girl∣F2)=32, P(girl∣F3)=21.
- Total probability: P(girl)=31⋅31+31⋅32+31⋅21=31(31+32+21)=31⋅62+4+3=31⋅69=21
- P(F2∩girl)=31⋅32=92. …
- AP EAPCET 2023Set eng-2023-05-17-AN1 markMCQQ.Three boxes B1, B2 and B3 contain balls with different colors as follows:A die is thrown. Box B1 is chosen if either 1 or 2 turns up. Box B2 is chosen if 3 or 4 turns up and box B3 is chosen if 5 or 6 turns up. Having chosen a box in this way, a ball is drawn at random from that box. If the ball drawn is found to be Red, then the probability that it is drawn from box B2 is (A) 127 (B) 125 (C) 121 (D) 263
White Black Red B1 2 1 2 B2 3 2 4 B3 4 3 2 ›Reveal solutionSolution
A Bayes'-theorem problem: reverse the conditional probability "ball is Red, which box?" using the total-probability formula.
Concept and Intuition
Bayes' theorem lets us "invert" a conditional probability. We know P(Red∣Bi) for each box and the prior P(Bi) (each 1/3 since the die is fair and each box corresponds to two faces); we want the posterior P(B2∣Red).
Step-by-Step Solution
- Totals in each box: B1: 2+1+2=5; B2: 3+2+4=9; B3: 4+3+2=9.
- P(Red∣B1)=52, P(Red∣B2)=94, P(Red∣B3)=92.
- Each box has prior probability 31 (each box corresponds to two die faces out of six).
- Total probability: P(Red)=31(52+94+92)=31(52+32)=31⋅1516=4516. …
- AP EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-15-FN1 markMCQQ.For a biased die, the probabilities for different faces to turn up are given belowThe die is tossed and you are told that either face 1 or 2 has turned up. Then the probability that it is face 1 is (A) 3310 (B) 215 (C) 218 (D) 421
Face 1 2 3 4 5 6 Probability 0.1 0.32 0.21 0.15 0.05 0.17 ›Reveal solutionSolution
Conditioning on "face 1 or face 2" just means renormalizing the two individual probabilities so they add to 1.
Concept and Intuition
P(face 1∣face 1 or 2)=P(face 1)+P(face 2)P(face 1), since these two events are mutually exclusive and their union is the conditioning event.
Step-by-Step Solution
- P(1)=0.1, P(2)=0.32.
- P(1 or 2)=0.1+0.32=0.42.
- P(1∣1 or 2)=0.420.1=4210=215.
Common Mistakes …
- AP EAPCET 2026Set eng-2026-05-12-FN1 markMCQQ.A die is thrown three times. If the sum of the numbers thrown is 15, then the probability that the first throw was a Four, is (A) 61 (B) 51 (C) 1085 (D) 1081
›Reveal solutionSolution
A conditional probability found by directly counting favourable die-triples against all triples summing to the given total.
Concept and Intuition
P(first=4∣sum=15)=#{triples with sum=15}#{triples with first=4, sum=15} — a straightforward application of conditional probability by counting, since all 63 triples are equally likely.
Step-by-Step Solution
- If the first throw is 4, the other two throws (each from 1 to 6) must sum to 15−4=11.
- Pairs of dice summing to 11: (5,6) and (6,5) — 2 ways.
- Now count all triples (a,b,c), each in 1–6, with a+b+c=15. Substitute a′=6−a,b′=6−b,c′=6−c (each in 0–5): then a′+b′+c′=18−15=3.
- Number of non-negative integer solutions to a′+b′+c′=3 is (23+2)=10; since 3<5 none violate the upper bound of 5, so all 10 are valid.
- So there are 10 triples with sum 15 in total. …
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