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Q.A pair of dice is thrown and the sum of the numbers appearing on them is observed to be 9. The probability that the number 4 has appeared on one of the dice is:

(a) 19\frac{1}{9}
(b) 49\frac{4}{9}
(c) 118\frac{1}{18}
(d) 12\frac{1}{2}
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Given that two dice sum to 9, we need the conditional probability that at least one die shows 4. Of the 4 equally likely ways to get a sum of 9, exactly 2 include a 4, so the answer is 12\frac{1}{2}.

This is a conditional probability problem. The key insight is that once we observe the sum is 9, our sample space shrinks dramatically — we're no longer considering all 36 possible outcomes when throwing two dice, but only those outcomes that produce a sum of 9. Within this restricted world, we ask: in how many of these does a 4 appear?

The concept at work here is the definition of conditional probability:

P(4 appears∣sum is 9)=number of ways to get sum 9 with at least one 4total number of ways to get sum 9P(\text{4 appears} \mid \text{sum is 9}) = \frac{\text{number of ways to get sum 9 with at least one 4}}{\text{total number of ways to get sum 9}}

Let me work through this systematically.

Step 1: Identify all outcomes that give a sum of 9

When two dice are thrown, the pairs (a,b)(a, b) where a+b=9a + b = 9 are:

  • (3,6)(3, 6)
  • (4,5)(4, 5)
  • (5,4)(5, 4)
  • (6,3)(6, 3)

So there are exactly 4 outcomes in our conditional sample space.

Note

We treat the dice as distinguishable (first die, second die), so (4,5)(4,5) and (5,4)(5,4) are different outcomes.

Step 2: Count outcomes where 4 appears on at least one die

Looking at our list:

  • (3,6)(3, 6) — no 4
  • (4,5)(4, 5) — 4 on first die ✓
  • (5,4)(5, 4) — 4 on second die ✓
  • (6,3)(6, 3) — no 4

Exactly 2 outcomes include the number 4.

Step 3: Calculate the conditional probability …

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