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Exercise 11.6 · Q3

Q.Consider a game where the player tosses a six-sided fair die. If the face that comes up is 66, the player wins ₹36; otherwise he loses ₹k2k^2, where kk is the face that comes up, k∈{1,2,3,4,5}k\in\{1,2,3,4,5\}. The expected amount to win at this game in ₹ is

(1) 196\dfrac{19}6
(2) −196-\dfrac{19}6
(3) 32\dfrac32
(4) −32-\dfrac32.
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✓ Free question

Each face is equally likely with probability 16\tfrac16; sum face-value times payoff across all six faces.

Step 1. List the payoff for each face. Face 66: win +36+36. Faces 1,2,3,4,51,2,3,4,5: lose k2k^2, i.e. payoff −1,−4,−9,−16,−25-1,-4,-9,-16,-25 respectively.

Step 2. Compute E(X)E(X) as the average of the six payoffs (each with probability 16\tfrac16).

E(X)=16[36−(1+4+9+16+25)]=16[36−55]=−196.E(X)=\dfrac16\Big[36-(1+4+9+16+25)\Big]=\dfrac16\big[36-55\big]=\dfrac{-19}6.

Step 3. State the result. E(X)=−196E(X)=-\dfrac{19}6 (rupees) — a negative expected value, i.e. the player expects to lose on average.

✓Final answer

E(X)=−196E(X)=-\dfrac{19}6 — option (2).

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