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Age Composition of the Population of India 1961 – 2026

Year0 – 14 years15 – 59 years60+ yearsTotal
196141536100
197142535100
198140546100
199138567100
200134597100
201129638100
2026 (Projected)236412100

Based on the above table, answer the following questions :

  1. What is meant by demographic dividend ?
  2. Based on the data given in the above table, compare the data of the years 1961 and 2026 and state your inferences.
  3. A falling dependency ratio can be a source of economic growth and prosperity. State how.
CBSECBSE Class XII Board 2024Subjective· 6mImportance★★★★★
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India’s age composition data from 1961 to 2026 shows a clear shift from a young, high-dependency population to a working-age-heavy structure, which creates a window for demographic dividend — but only if the workforce is productively employed.

Demographic Transition Theory explains how populations move through stages as a country develops. In the first stage, both birth and death rates are high, so the population is young and grows slowly. In the second stage, death rates fall while birth rates remain high, leading to rapid population growth and a very young age structure. In the third stage, birth rates also begin to fall, and the share of working-age adults rises. In the fourth stage, both rates are low, and the population ages. India, as the table shows, has been moving through these stages over the past six decades.

The table gives the percentage of India’s population in three age groups: children (0–14), working-age adults (15–59), and the elderly (60+). In 1961, children made up 41% of the population, working-age adults 53%, and the elderly just 6%. By 2026, the projected figures are dramatically different: children drop to 23%, working-age adults rise to 64%, and the elderly double to 12%. This is a textbook example of a country moving from a high-fertility, high-dependency stage to a low-fertility, working-age-heavy stage.

  1. What is meant by demographic dividend? Demographic dividend refers to the economic growth potential that can arise when a country’s working-age population (15–59 years) is larger than its dependent population (children and elderly). This happens when fertility rates fall, leading to fewer young dependents, while the existing large cohort of young people enters the working ages. If these workers are productively employed, the economy can grow faster because there are more earners relative to consumers. The dividend is not automatic — it depends on policies that create jobs, improve skills, and ensure good health.
    Important

    Demographic dividend is a temporary window of opportunity. It lasts only as long as the working-age share remains high. Once the large cohort ages into retirement, the dependency ratio rises again, and the dividend fades.

  2. Compare the data of 1961 and 2026 and state your inferences. In 1961, India had a very young population: 41% were children, and only 53% were in the working ages. The dependency ratio (dependents per 100 workers) was high — roughly 89 dependents for every 100 workers. By 2026, the share of children is projected to fall to 23%, while working-age adults rise to 64%. The elderly share increases from 6% to 12%, but not enough to offset the sharp decline in child dependency. The dependency ratio in 2026 is projected to be about 56 dependents per 100 workers — a dramatic drop. The inference is clear: India has moved from a high-dependency, high-fertility stage to a low-dependency, working-age-heavy stage. This is the demographic dividend window. The country now has a historically large proportion of people in the productive ages. However, the rising elderly share (from 6% to 12%) also signals that this window will eventually close as the population ages further.
    Note

    The 2026 figures are projections, not actual data. They assume continued decline in fertility and improvements in life expectancy. Actual outcomes depend on policy and social change.

  3. A falling dependency ratio can be a source of economic growth and prosperity. State how. …

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